wxeyeNH Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 90L just moved off the African coast and is getting it's act together very quickly. Tightening spin at the circulation center. Can't see any reason it will not be Lorenzo very soon. At this very early stage models have it recurving in the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 19 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 90L just moved off the African coast and is getting it's act together very quickly. Tightening spin at the circulation center. Can't see any reason it will not be Lorenzo very soon. At this very early stage models have it recurving in the Mid Atlantic. I was surprised it wasn't declared at the 11 am update because on visible, it came off the coast spinning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 Maybe at the 5 pm update as a TD (we'll see) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Looks like it's going to end up being a major fish hurricane recurving way out in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 5 am update just issued - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 230903 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.8N 22.2W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Future big ACE generator right here. With a big deep layer central Atlantic trough it should not impact anthing west of 60°W however it could impact the Azores depending on how fast it recurves. With the deep layer trough, Lorenzo may actually continue deepening or remain a major hurricane as it moves north into the central Atlantic as the steering layer may offset upper level wind shear. Such trough interactions can enhance favorability versus negative upstream shear. Hence why I think Lorenzo will be a big ACE producing Cape Verde hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 IR presentation looks great today. Probably already at TS strength or just a hair below right now. CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 2.4 /1010.6mb/ 34.0kt Current Intensity Analysis UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 9.0 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 23 SEP 2019 Time : 130000 UTC Lat : 10:51:31 N Lon : 23:05:53 W Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 2.4 2.7 3.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 IR presentation looks great today. Probably already at TS strength or just a hair below right now.CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 2.4 /1010.6mb/ 34.0kt Current Intensity Analysis UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 9.0 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 23 SEP 2019 Time : 130000 UTC Lat : 10:51:31 N Lon : 23:05:53 W Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 2.4 2.7 3.1 FWIWSent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 24.1W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 24.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest is expected starting tonight, and this is forecast to continue through the middle of the week. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should pass well to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Yet another tropical storm has formed over the Atlantic, this one over the far eastern portion of the basin. The system has been designated as Tropical Storm Lorenzo based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, all of which support tropical-storm strength. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, but its possible this is somewhat conservative since the TAFB classification was a little higher. Recent GMI microwave imagery and ASCAT-C data showed that the low-level center of Lorenzo is on the north side of most of its deep convection. While this disorganized structure may limit how quickly Lorenzo can strengthen in the short-term, the tropical storm is located within a generally favorable environment for intensification. All of the intensity guidance shows Lorenzo becoming a hurricane, but the timing varies from model to model. The official forecast follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and shows Lorenzo reaching hurricane status within 48 h. Continued strengthening is forecast thereafter. No noteworthy changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast. The ASCAT and microwave data were very helpful in determining the location of Lorenzo's center and its forward speed. The cyclone has accelerated and the initial motion estimate is now 275/15 kt. Very little adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast. Lorenzo is still forecast to be steered generally westward to west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. The cyclone will pass well south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast in about 4 days as Lorenzo reaches a break in the ridge. Just like the intensity forecast, the track forecast is based heavily on HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 11.1N 24.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 11.5N 26.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 12.0N 28.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 12.5N 31.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 13.1N 34.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 14.6N 39.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 17.1N 43.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 20.5N 47.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Lorenzo came off the coast spinning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 NOAA sats watching Lorenzo - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Lorenzo got an early 5 pm update (and is doing better than Karen)! Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 232033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...LORENZO STRENGTHENING WELL SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.3N 25.5W ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 NASA's Hurricane group did some calcs on Lorenzo's rainfall rates earlier today - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 5 am update (starting to crank up) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 240853 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...LORENZO FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 28.0W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 11 am update (pressure slowly dropping) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 241435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...LORENZO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 29.3W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 5 pm update (Lorenzo holding steady but expected to strengthen to a hurricane soon - perhaps by tomorrow) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 242048 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...LORENZO'S INTENSITY HOLDING STEADY FOR THE MOMENT... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 31.0W ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 11 pm update (getting close to hurricane-level winds) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 250234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...LORENZO RESUMES INTENSIFYING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 32.4W ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 5 am update (Lorenzo is now officially a hurricane) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 250856 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...LORENZO BECOMES THE FIFTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 33.9W ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 NOAA Sats watching Lorenzo - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...LORENZO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 35.1W ABOUT 715 MI...1155 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 35.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the northwest is expected late Thursday or Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lorenzo continues to become better organized, with a small central convective feature surrounded by a large complex of outer bands in all quadrants except the northwest, where some dry air may be entraining. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMMS satellite consensus technique have increased to near 75 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The hurricane currently has good cirrus outflow in all directions. The initial motion is 285/15. The subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Lorenzo should steer the hurricane west- northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as a break develops in the ridge between 45W-50W. Lorenzo is subsequently forecast to turn northward into the break by 96 h and recurve into the westerlies around 120 h. While the guidance agrees with this scenario, there is some spread on the longitude of the recurvature between the easternmost GFS model and the westernmost ECMWF model. The new forecast lies between these models in best overall agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus guidance. Lorenzo should remain over warm water and in a light shear environment during the next three days, with the only negative factor for intensification being episodic intrusions of dry air. The intensity guidance forecasts continued steady strengthening, with rapid strengthening possible during the first 24-36 h. The new intensity forecast is increased from the previous forecast, and for the first 36-48 h it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The intensity forecast shows little change in strength between 36-72 h, although some fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles during this time. After 72 h, Lorenzo is likely to encounter some southwesterly shear, and thus some weakening is forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 14.1N 35.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 14.4N 37.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 15.3N 39.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 16.7N 40.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 18.4N 42.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 25.0N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 29.0N 42.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Lorenzo has certainly become more impressive in the last 24 hours. It is 20 kts stronger than yesterday morning (11 AM AST) and it is predicted to be a major hurricane Right now it has a couple of pulses of convection near the center, which looks kind of weird. Lorenzo is an Italian name. Maybe he will recurve back to Italy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, Chinook said: Lorenzo has certainly become more impressive in the last 24 hours. It is 20 kts stronger than yesterday morning (11 AM AST) and it is predicted to be a major hurricane Right now it has a couple of pulses of convection near the center, which looks kind of weird. Lorenzo is an Italian name. Maybe he will recurve back to Italy. Might be trying to form an eye. Via visible satellite tried to form an eye earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 A lot of the reason why Lorenzo recurves so early is due to the trough interaction with Jerry. It's really a shame from a weather/hurricane enthusiast that this has a greater than 99% chance of recurving well before any land interaction. It's great news for the islands which would have really been under the gun with such a strong system that far East. interestingly enough, the Euro shows development of another wave coming off Africa in a few days with what appears to be more of a pronounced ridge in place over almost all of the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 5 pm update (Lorenzo continues to strengthen and expected to be a major hurricane some time tomorrow) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 252040 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...LORENZO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 36.9W ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 36.9 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the northwest is expected by Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven Quote 000 WTNT43 KNHC 252041 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lorenzo continues to become better organized, with the central dense overcast getting larger while a large complex of outer bands continues in the southeastern semicircle. In addition, a AMSR-2 overpass near 1530 UTC suggested there is at least a partial eyewall or convective ring near the center. The initial intensity is increased to 80 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus intensity estimate. The hurricane still shows good cirrus outflow in all directions, and it still appears some dry air is entraining into the system in the northwestern quadrant. The initial motion is now 285/16. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. The subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Lorenzo should steer the hurricane west-northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as a break develops in the ridge between 45W-50W. Lorenzo is subsequently forecast to turn northward into the break by 96 h and recurve into the westerlies around 120 h. Since the last advisory, the track guidance has shifted a little to the right after 36 h. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track, but after 36 h it now lies a little to the left of the center of the guidance envelope. Lorenzo should remain over warm water and in a light shear environment during the next three days, with the only negative factor for intensification being episodic intrusions of dry air. The intensity guidance forecasts continued steady strengthening for the next 36 h or so, but the the chances of rapid intensification in the various statistical indices have gone down since the previous advisory. The new intensity forecast will call for 36 more hours of intensification, and it continues to lie near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The intensity forecast follows the general trend of the guidance in showing little change in strength between 36-96 h, although fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles during this time. After that time, Lorenzo is likely to encounter southwesterly shear, and thus some weakening is forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 14.5N 36.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 15.0N 38.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 16.1N 40.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 23.0N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 26.5N 43.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 31.0N 40.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Pinhole eye. Probably won't last long with such well-organized outer banding, which will likely lead to an ERC and a larger eye. Nothing suggestive of a change in track at this point. Still looks like a powerful central Atlantic major. Need to keep an eye on possible interaction with the Azores though. Depending on recurve trajectory could be one of their strongest impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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