NorthHillsWx Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Recon found something close to a center - Looks very broad and weak. I'd imagine they haven't sampled the strongest winds yet though. Definitely elongated NE to SW. On another note, this has been an exceptionally long-lived 35-40 kt storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Author Share Posted September 26, 2019 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Looks very broad and weak. I'd imagine they haven't sampled the strongest winds yet though. Definitely elongated NE to SW. On another note, this has been an exceptionally long-lived 35-40 kt storm! Oh sure - the poor thing has been beaten and battered. But the surprising thing was the wind upgrade this morning so although it is struggling, it is still alive (sortof)! If what will be a primary center has shifted, it will be interesting if they can manage to actually find it (it may not be where the drop was). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 9 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Oh sure - the poor thing has been beaten and battered. But the surprising thing was the wind upgrade this morning so although it is struggling, it is still alive (sortof)! If what will be a primary center has shifted, it will be interesting if they can manage to actually find it (it may not be where the drop was). Recon is on a SW to NE pass right now and should get a good sampling of the possible secondary center shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Current recon findings suggest a max intensity of just under 45kts right now under the deep convection to the West. Sure looks indicative to me of a secondary center. Given the high rain rate and lack of flight level wind data to support this, I'm surprised that's not flagged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Author Share Posted September 26, 2019 I noticed from the recon that Karen is sitting right over a buoy - 41049 Have been watching the surface data and the winds have picked up some. That buoy also has some web pics posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Author Share Posted September 26, 2019 Quote Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center3-meter discus buoySCOOP payload27.490 N 62.938 W (27°29'24" N 62°56'15" W)Site elevation: sea levelAir temp height: 4 m above site elevationAnemometer height: 4 m above site elevationBarometer elevation: 2.5 m above mean sea levelSea temp depth: 1 m below water lineWater depth: 5459 mWatch circle radius: 5505 yards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Author Share Posted September 26, 2019 5 pm update (pressure continues to rise) - Quote 181 WTNT32 KNHC 262034 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...KAREN'S WIND FIELD BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 62.9W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 62.9 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). The storm is expected to turn eastward and become nearly stationary by Friday night, and then begin moving westward over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Karen is expected to become a remnant low by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg Quote 694 WTNT42 KNHC 262035 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Data from aircraft reconnaissance, ASCAT, and NOAA buoy 41049 indicate that Karen's circulation is becoming increasingly elongated. A combination of data from these platforms also supports maintaining an initial intensity of 40 kt for now. The deterioration of Karen's structure suggests that weakening is imminent, especially with an expected increase in northerly shear during the next day or so. The GFS and ECMWF models--via their simulated infrared satellite fields--are unanimous in showing Karen losing its organized deep convection in about 36 hours. Based on that, the new NHC forecast depicts Karen as becoming a remnant low in 48 hours. Due to a significant increase in southwesterly shear by day 4, the system is expected to open up into a surface trough by day 5. Fixes suggest that Karen is slowing down a bit and turning to the right, with an initial motion of 025/10 kt. The steering flow will be evolving over the next couple of days with high pressure building to the north of Karen over the western Atlantic. This will cause the cyclone to almost come to a stop in about 36 hours, and then turn to the west by 48 hours until dissipation on day 5. This is the same forecast reasoning as before, and the new NHC forecast is just an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 27.2N 62.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 27.9N 61.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 28.2N 60.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 28.1N 60.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 28.0N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z 27.9N 63.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z 27.9N 66.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Karen is done...Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 27, 2019 Author Share Posted September 27, 2019 11 pm update (continues to weaken) - Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 270231 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...KAREN FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 62.1W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 62.1 West. Karen is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), but is expected to become nearly stationary by Friday night or early Saturday. It should then begin to move westward over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Karen is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila Quote 341 WTNT42 KNHC 270233 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 The center of the circulation of Karen moved near or over the NOAA buoy 41049 where a wind shift and a very modest drop in pressure occurred. Currently, the winds are decreasing and pressures are rising at the buoy. The data from the buoy and recent satellite imagery continue to indicate that the circulation remains elongated with the low-level center located on the eastern edge of a convective mass. However, some curved rainbands are developing on the eastern portion of the circulation as we speak. T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are 2.5 on the Dvorak scale and support a generous initial intensity of 35 kt. A very recent partial ASCAT pass measured winds of only 30 kt, but the swath did not cover the area where the plane measured stronger winds earlier today. In about a day, the upper-level environment will become increasingly hostile with the development of northwesterly shear, and thereafter, the shear will become even stronger from the southwest. With this anticipated upper-level wind pattern, Karen should weaken and become devoid of deep convection in 36 hours or so and degenerate into a remnant low. Karen has slowed down and is now moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 7 kt. The steering flow is forecast to change in 24 hours as a ridge builds to the north of Karen, and the cyclone, or most likely its remnants, should begin to move slowly westward. The system is anticipated to degenerate into a westward moving trough in 3 days or so as forecast by global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 27.8N 62.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 28.3N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 28.5N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 28.5N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0000Z 28.3N 61.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z 28.0N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 27, 2019 Author Share Posted September 27, 2019 5 am update (still hanging on) - Quote 551 WTNT32 KNHC 270846 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...KAREN HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR NOW... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 61.2W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 61.2 West. Karen is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is forecast to continue this morning, but Karen is forecast to become nearly stationary by tonight or early Saturday. A westward motion is then anticipated by the end of the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Karen is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky Quote 981 WTNT42 KNHC 270850 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 Karen's status as a tropical cyclone is becoming increasingly dubious. In a trio of ASCAT passes that arrived yesterday evening, the circulation of the cyclone was indistinguishable from a surface boundary that extends south from the remnants of post-tropical cyclone Jerry. This suggests that Karen's circulation may no longer be well-defined. Furthermore, deep convection near the center of Karen has generally decreased and become less organized since last night. Satellite-based intensity estimates support maintaining the intensity of Karen at 35 kt, but this could be generous given that the max winds observed in the earlier ASCAT data were lower. Regardless of the exact starting intensity of the cyclone, gradual weakening is expected for the next few days. There is unanimous agreement among the dynamical models on this scenario. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models show the cyclone devoid of deep convection within 36 hours, if not sooner. Increasingly hostile upper-level winds should then prevent the cyclone from reorganizing and it is forecast to dissipate in about four days. It has been difficult to locate the center of Karen overnight and the initial motion estimate is uncertain but also unchanged (055/7 kt). The global models are forecasting that Karen will continue to move on this general heading through this morning before it stalls tonight. A building ridge to the north should cause Karen or its remnants to start moving westward over the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 28.3N 61.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 28.8N 60.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 29.1N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 29.3N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 29.3N 61.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z 29.0N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 27, 2019 Author Share Posted September 27, 2019 Karen this morning - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 27, 2019 Author Share Posted September 27, 2019 A couple of NOAA Sats tweets about Karen - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Karen is dead. Disorganized swirls this morning. I'm struggling to find a tropical system at the moment. She had a nice run as Long-Lived TS, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 27, 2019 Author Share Posted September 27, 2019 11 am update (now a Tropical Depression) - Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 271439 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...KAREN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AT ANY TIME... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 59.6W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 59.6 West. Karen is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this evening. Karen should then stall overnight and begin moving westward on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Karen is expected to either become a remnant low or open up into a trough of low pressure by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg Quote 811 WTNT42 KNHC 271456 CCA TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 22...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 Corrected status to dissipated at 72 hours Karen's associated convection is becoming increasingly disorganized, and as has been stated in previous advisories, the circulation is elongated and attached to a surface trough that extends northward toward Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry. A partial ASCAT pass only showed winds around 25 kt in the southern part of the circulation, and the initial intensity is therefore lowered, probably still generously, to 30 kt. Karen has moved out from beneath an upper-level anticyclone and is now feeling the effects of 15-20 kt of northwesterly shear. The shear is expected to increase further during the next few days and also become more southwesterly, which is likely to lead to weakening and further loss of organization. Based on the latest global model guidance, Karen is now forecast to lose organized deep convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 12 hours and then open up into a trough by day 3. Given the cyclone's current structure, however, it's entirely possible that either of these options could occur as soon as later today. The initial motion is east-northeastward, or 065/7 kt. As it becomes an increasingly shallower system, Karen should stop its eastward motion within the next 12-24 hours and then turn westward on the southern side of a low-level ridge developing over the western Atlantic. This forecast scenario remains consistent with the reasoning from previous NHC advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 28.8N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 29.0N 59.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1200Z 29.1N 59.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 60.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 29.3N 62.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 27, 2019 Author Share Posted September 27, 2019 NASA Hurricane's tweet prior to the recent downgrade - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 27, 2019 Author Share Posted September 27, 2019 5 pm update - she's dead Jim. I was looking at the sat pics of Lorenzo and the shear has been really impacting that storm enough to weaken it so Karen was no match for it if a monster CAT 4 has been having troubles... Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 272034 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Remnants Of Karen Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...KAREN DEGENERATES INTO A SURFACE TROUGH... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 58.5W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Karen were located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 58.5 West. The remnants are moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) but should stall and then begin moving westward over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Winds associated with the remnants are expected to gradually decrease during the next several days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Berg Quote 702 WTNT42 KNHC 272035 TCDAT2 Remnants Of Karen Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 Scatterometer data from a few hours ago indicated that Karen's circulation has opened up into a surface trough of low pressure. In addition, the associated convection has continued to lose organization. Therefore, the system is no longer a tropical cyclone, and this will be the final advisory. Maximum winds, based on the ASCAT pass, remain near 30 kt. Although an area of low pressure may persist for a few more days, the circulation should remain poorly organized, and the remnants are not expected to produce any significant convection. The surface trough is expected to move little during the next 24 hours, but it should then begin moving westward by 48 hours as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 29.3N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Karen is dead. And I was dead wrong a earlier in the week that this would do anything. Won't be the last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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