Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 AF300 got a pair of 1004s so far for a Karen center - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Looks like on IR that it's trying to wrap some convection around the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Euro turns karen into an open wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro turns karen into an open wave Ya she's done...Toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 4 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Well now that I found the source of this handy dandy site - there is a small area where Karen could move without shredding. That is about as unfavorable look as you will see for significant development, minus Lorenzo's little window. Karen has no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Not so fast on Karen being toast. ECMWF initialized too far north and also leads to too much latitude gain in the short term. As such, Karen is subjected to northerly to NErly mid-level shear and strong low theta-E into a weak vort. That will kill most struggling systems. However, if Karen is @ a lower latitude and finds itself SSE of the ridge axis, atmospheric conditions will be more favorable, especially if Karen manages to grow convection/MLC again and align its vort tomorrow. Not throwing in the towel yet until I see where Karen is located tomorrow evening with respect to the building 594 dm axis. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: Not so fast on Karen being toast. ECMWF is initialized too far north and also leads to too much latitude gain in the short term. As such, Karen is subjected to northerly to NErly mid-level shear and strong low theta-E into a weak vort. That will kill most struggling systems. However, if Karen is @ a lower latitde and finds itself SSE of the ridge axis, atmospheric conditions will be more favorable, especially if Karen manages to grow convection/MLC agajn and align its vort. Not throwing in the towel yet until I see where Karen is located tomorrow evening with respect to the building 594 dm axis. If you look at the visible loop, you can see the cirrus clouds streaming from north to south over the mostly exposed circulation. That indicates the already weak system is experiencing significant shear. I do not see, from the analysis and current trends, a way out for the system. I may be wrong but also without any model support strengthening the system, my money would be this is an open wave at this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 5 pm update (hanging in there but weak and now moving NNE) - Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 252036 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KAREN WEAKER... ...CONDITIONS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 64.3W ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 64.3 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A north- northeastward to northeastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Friday. Karen is then expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Some areas in southeastern Puerto Rico have already received up to 5 inches of rainfall, which has caused some flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg Quote 000 WTNT42 KNHC 252037 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Karen found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 43 kt, and SFMR-measured winds of 34 kt. Although those surface winds were coincident with some heavy rains, which makes them questionable, it is assumed that there are still some tropical-storm-force winds somewhere within the circulation. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. Karen has turned toward the north-northeast with an initial motion of 015/12 kt. The cyclone is positioned between a mid-level high centered over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low spinning just east of the Bahamas. The steering flow between these two features should keep Karen on a generally northeastward trajectory during the next 48 hours. Around that time, a blocking ridge is expected to build to the north of Karen, causing it to make a clockwise loop and move west-southwestward by days 4 and 5. Compared to the previous cycle, the track models are allowing Karen to get farther to the northeast before it makes its loop, which ends up slowing down the 4- and 5-day NHC forecast points. Even with that change, however, the forecast path of Karen is relatively unchanged from before. It's probably time to put more weight on the dynamical models for Karen's future intensity. The cyclone has continued to struggle in its environment, which is essentially what those models have been indicating all along. Even the statistical-dynamical models, which are explicitly showing strengthening, indicate that the environment won't be very favorable, with convergence aloft and a dry mid-level air mass. Because of those factors, and the lower initial intensity, the NHC intensity forecast has been lowered considerably from this morning's forecast. It still allows for the possibility of some strengthening, but if model trends continue, the official forecast could be lowered further in subsequent advisories. And if the global models are correct, Karen could even lose deep convection, and hence become post-tropical, in about 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 22.9N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 24.6N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 26.5N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 27.6N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 27.9N 60.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 27.5N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 26.5N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 26.0N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 5 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Ya she's done...Toast. Agree. She will be a open wave or post ts. By tomorrow. That upper level low and trough ripping her apart. No way a TS can survive such hostile conditions . She stuck over one hell of a trough. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/08/1000x1000.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Author Share Posted September 26, 2019 11 pm update (forward motion has increased slightly) - Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 260233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 63.6W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 63.6 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A north- northeastward to northeastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Friday. Karen or its remnants are then expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches tonight across the Virgin Islands, with isolated storm totals of 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila Quote 00 WTNT42 KNHC 260234 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Karen's cloud pattern is basically shapeless and consists of a tight swirl of low clouds located at the northern end of a curved-convective band. Dvorak T-numbers barely support 35 kt, but it is assumed that a few spots of tropical storm-force-wind are still occuring in the southeast quadrant. Karen has had enough time to strengthen, and it is doubtful that it will do it in the future. The cyclone is heading toward an unfavorable environment and each consecutive run of the global models show a weaker and weaker cyclone. My predecessor wisely stated in the advisory "it is time to put more weight in the global models" and I will do so in this one. On this basis, the NHC forecast no longer calls for strengthening, and maintains Karen generously with 35 kt for the next 2 days or so. It also calls for weakening thereafter. Karen is forecast to be a remnant low in about 4 days, but is very likely that this could occur much sooner. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north- northeast or 015 degrees at 13 kt. The cyclone is being steered by the flow between a mid-level trough over the Bahamas and a subtropical ridge to the east. In two days, the steering flow is expected to collapse, and Karen will likely meander for a day or so. A ridge will then build to the north, and since Karen will be weak and shallow, the cyclone or its remnants will move westward, steered by the trade winds south of the ridge and toward very hostile upper-level winds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 24.4N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 26.0N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 27.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 28.3N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 27.5N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 26.6N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 26.5N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Author Share Posted September 26, 2019 Early 5 am update ("barely a tropical storm") - Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 260831 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 63.5W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF BERMUDA ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 63.5 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northeastward to eastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Friday. Karen, or its remnants, are then expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Quote 000 WTNT42 KNHC 260834 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Karen is barely a tropical storm. A pair of ASCAT passes from several hours ago showed maximum winds between 30 and 35 kt in the southeastern quadrant of the storm. Those passes also indicate that the circulation is quite broad and weak on the west side. Based on the ASCAT data and the TAFB Dvorak classification, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt. The storm appears quite disheveled in satellite images, with an elongated east to west convective pattern and a lack of well-defined banding features. Karen has not been able to take advantage of the relatively favorable environment that it has been in during the past day or so, which was well anticipated by the dynamical models, but poorly forecast by the statistical-dynamical aids. The storm will remain in generally favorable conditions through tonight, so it should be able to maintain its intensity or perhaps strengthen slightly during that time. After that, however, the models show a steady increase in shear and drier air in the vicinity of the cyclone. These conditions should cause weakening and will likely lead to the system either losing its deep convection and becoming a remnant low or dissipating entirely in 3 or 4 days when it moves into a region of strong westerly shear. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and leans more on the GFS and ECMWF guidance. The tropical storm is still moving north-northeastward at 13 kt steered by the flow between a mid-level ridge to its east and a mid- to upper-level low to its west over the Bahamas. The low is expected to weaken and lift out during the next few days allowing a low- to mid-level ridge to strengthen and build to the north of Karen. This change in the steering flow should cause Karen, or its remnants, to move slower to the northeast and east through Friday, followed by a motion to the west-southwest this weekend. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one lies closest to the HCCA model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 25.5N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 27.0N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 27.9N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 28.0N 60.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 27.9N 60.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 27.0N 65.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z 26.8N 67.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Author Share Posted September 26, 2019 The Wisc. MIMIC page wasn't updating the past couple days but here was the most recent image available for Karen - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 The persistent sustained convective bursting within the MCS may be supportive of enough surface pressure drop to relocate the low level vortex further southwest within Karen's overall broader surface trough. A new LLC may be forming around 63W. Will have to see what recon finds but that combined with the stall should still be watched. It only needs to close off a vortex in a location more susceptible to steering influence by the developing ridge axis to get a jump-start on west to wsw motion. This again would aid in placement within a pocket of better atmospheric favorablility, convergence and forward motion. Though the cards are still stacked against Karen, the further SW it is located when westward motion begins, the better chance of reintensification and a system to still be watched. The recent models have been reluctant to support redevelopment, however, potential changes such as these can also change modeling in the short and medium range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Author Share Posted September 26, 2019 11 am update (still hanging on but expected to fall apart soon) - Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 261453 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...KAREN SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...BUT FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 63.3W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 63.3 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through this evening. Karen is then forecast to make a slow clockwise loop, ultimately moving westward by early Sunday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast by the weekend, and Karen is expected to become a remnant low by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg Quote 502 WTNT42 KNHC 261453 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Karen has been maintaining a cluster of convection to the west of its center, but visible satellite images and wind data from NOAA buoy 40149 to the northeast suggest that the low-level circulation is becoming elongated. This structure has been confirmed by a late-arriving ASCAT pass, and that data also show that Karen is producing winds to 40 kt within the deep convection. Karen is embedded in the flow between a mid-level high centered over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low which is slowly retrograding westward over the Bahamas. This is maintaining a north-northeastward motion of 015/12 kt. The central Atlantic high is expected to weaken over the next 2 days, while a new high develops over the western Atlantic, causing Karen to make a clockwise loop well to the southeast of Bermuda. Once the western Atlantic high becomes established, Karen is then expected to move generally westward on days 3 through 5. There have been no significant changes among the track models, and the new NHC track forecast is therefore very similar to the previous one. Relatively light winds aloft and warm ocean waters could allow Karen to maintain its intensity for another day or two. After that time, however, an increase in northerly shear will likely allow ambient dry air to infiltrate into the circulation further. The dynamical models--which we're now heavily favoring in our forecasts--are showing gradual weakening and even a loss of organized deep convection in a few days. Therefore, Karen is now forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by day 3. The low is expected to plow into strong southwesterly shear on days 4 and 5 while it moves westward over the southwestern Atlantic, which should keep it as a remnant low or possibly cause it to open up into a trough of low pressure. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 26.6N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 27.6N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 28.1N 61.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 28.0N 60.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 27.8N 60.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 27.3N 63.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z 27.1N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 27.0N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 11 am update (still hanging on but expected to fall apart soon) -Relatively light winds aloft and warm ocean waters could allow Karen to maintain its intensity for another day or two. After that time, however, an increase in northerly shear will likely allow ambient dry air to infiltrate into the circulation further. The dynamical models--which we're now heavily favoring in our forecasts--are showing gradual weakening and even a loss of organized deep convection in a few days. Therefore, Karen is now forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by day 3. The low is expected to plow into strong southwesterly shear on days 4 and 5 while it moves westward over the southwestern Atlantic, which shouldkeep it as a remnant low or possibly cause it to open up into a trough of low pressure.Of course there in lies the rub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Author Share Posted September 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Of course there in lies the rub. I had been looking at the mid-level WV earlier this morning and there was all kinds of dry air potential at the time. Here it is right now (and it was all in that ULL )- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Juat going to go out on a limb here...But what if the center moves and relocates SW under the convective bursts?Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Juat going to go out on a limb here... But what if the center moves and relocates SW under the convective bursts? Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Scroll up and read my last discussion. Again, in the least that would aid in short term reintensification but how that plays out as the larger atmospheric features and strong ridge axis evolves is anyone's guess. It would certainly have better chances than being further northeast and under strong NErly flow. There is a pocket there vs the ridge axis in westward track that Karen could take which might allow it to skirt unfavorable conditions. The ridge would need to build overhead and place mid-level flow more easterly to help aid vertical stacking. The rub in all this is future PV placement and axis of SWrly upper level flow, which would not be favorable for a W to WSW moving TC. But where exactly does that feature develop? Karen isn't dead yet but it needs help and some luck on latitudinal/longitudinal track. Otherwise it is destined to degenerate long before posing any potential threat to the Bahamas or points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Still seeing quite a bit of Northerly shear coming from the remnants of Jerry but the impacts from the ULL moving Westward in the Central Bahamas looks to be far enough away. As others have said, if Karen can somehow relocate further SW it would be in a better UL environment. I really don't see anything currently that would indicate that the system is flat lining. It's poorly organized but a center relocation would be a game changer IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 The 12z GFS keeps Karen around for about the next 4-5 days. Main reason for dissipation seems to be some Westerly shear thanks to the development of a highly amplified positively tilted trough by day 5 over the Western Atlantic extending into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z GFS keeps Karen around for about the next 4-5 days. Main reason for dissipation seems to be some Westerly shear thanks to the development of a highly amplified positively tilted trough by day 5 over the Western Atlantic extending into the Gulf. "Some Shear" is an understatement! The circulation is already stretched and being impinged on the NW from that firehose of shear at present. The sliver of slightly favorable conditions is so small it would take near perfect of the LLC to find it that it would have any benefit to maintain strength. Said it yesterday and reinforced today, despite the increase in convection: Karen is toast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: "Some Shear" is an understatement! The circulation is already stretched and being impinged on the NW from that firehose of shear at present. The sliver of slightly favorable conditions is so small it would take near perfect of the LLC to find it that it would have any benefit to maintain strength. Said it yesterday and reinforced today, despite the increase in convection: Karen is toast Karen is looking better today and not just because of the increase in convection. Finally starting to see some good outflow, especially on the North and West of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Karen is looking better today and not just because of the increase in convection. Finally starting to see some good outflow, especially on the North and West of the center.Yeah, IR impovingSent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: Yeah, IR impoving Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk The shear right now is only about 10-15kt. It's not perfect conditions but it's a lot better than the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Yeah, IR impoving Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk I disagree. I do not see a center under that convection. Looks like maybe the MLC. I think the LLC is broadening out and looking trough-like. Watch the visible for the real story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Current recon findings suggest a max intensity of just under 45kts right now under the deep convection to the West. Sure looks indicative to me of a secondary center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: I disagree. I do not see a center under that convection. Looks like maybe the MLC. I think the LLC is broadening out and looking trough-like. Watch the visible for the real story I think the recon data suggests that the center is attempting to relocate under the deep convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 26, 2019 Author Share Posted September 26, 2019 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: I disagree. I do not see a center under that convection. Looks like maybe the MLC. I think the LLC is broadening out and looking trough-like. Watch the visible for the real story Recon found something close to a center - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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