Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Briz600 said: Nothing really exciting here in San Juan. On and off moderate to heavy rain with light wind. I wouldn't want to see any more than that where you are after Maria! You did have some earthquake rockin' and rolling today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 11 pm update (pressure continues to drop and storm motion has significantly increased) - Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250237 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 65.0W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF ST. THOMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was estimated near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 65.0 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). Karen should continue to move toward the north-northeast through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours, but the strong squalls which are to the south of the center will continue to affect that area through tonight. Karen should move over the western Atlantic later tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure was 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico, Vieques and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are currently spreading across the warning area. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. This winds should gradually decrease on Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila Quote 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250237 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 During the afternoon and early evening hours, satellite images indicated that the cloud pattern associated with Karen was becoming a little better organized. Then, surface observations from the area just east of Puerto Rico indicated that the pressures were falling, and a center was apparently becoming better defined. The presence of this center was confirmed by a reconnaissance plane which was able to fix a tight small circulation of about 1002 or 1003 mb. This, by no means, indicates that the overall circulation of the cyclone is well organized. Winds are still swirly on the western portion of the circulation and are responding to an elongated trough of low pressure north of Puerto Rico. In fact, I would not be surprised if another center reforms father to west within the trough or the large cyclonic envelope, and the center we are tracking dissipates. In any case, preliminary analysis indicates that the center of Karen that we were tracking moved very near or over Vieques around 2100 UTC and then over Culebra a little bit later. This small center could also have been a meso-vortex within the larger circulation. Data from the reconnaissance plane and satellite intensity estimates yield an initial intensity of 40 kt. These winds are occurring primarily to the southeast of the center. Karen is heading toward a shear environment that is not ideal at all for significant intensification. As previously indicated, the NHC forecast calls for a very modest increase in intensity during the next 3 to 5 days as indicated by the HCCA model. However, some of the statistical guidance brings Karen to hurricane status by the end of the forecast period. Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Karen is moving toward the north-northeast or 015 degrees at 12 kt. This motion however, is highly uncertain because it includes the reformation of the center. The circulation of Karen is trapped between a subtropical high over the Atlantic and a mid-level trough over the Bahamas. This flow pattern will continue to steer Karen in this same generaldirection for the next 3 days. After that time, the steering flow is forecast to collapse, and Karen, if it is still a cyclone, will begin to meander. This would allow another ridge to develop north of the cyclone and force it to move westward. This is the solution provided by most of the global models. Key Messages: 1. Karen will continue to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico, Vieques and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands into Wednesday even as the center moves away from the region. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 19.1N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 20.8N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 23.2N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 25.5N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 27.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 26.8N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 26.5N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 26.0N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 I'm looking at these models in the 5-7 range, and I'm literally saying outloud: Why isn't Karen moving? That ridge is dominant as hell, this thing should be sailing into Key Largo and Corpus, yet it spins like an idiot in the Sargasso Sea for a week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 2 am update (no change) - Quote 682 WTNT32 KNHC 250559 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 65.1W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM N OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located by the NOAA San Juan Doppler radar and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 65.1 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). Karen is expected to move toward the north today, followed by a motion toward the north-northeast tonight through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move farther away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today. However, strong squalls located to the south and southeast of the center will continue to affect those areas early this morning before subsiding by late morning. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the southeast of the center. A wind gust to 43 mph (67 km/h) was recently reported at a couple of locations on St. Thomas. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches) based on information from the reconnaissance aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through today: Puerto Rico, Vieques and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, will continue across the warning area this morning. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. This winds should gradually decrease later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 5 am update (little change) - Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250852 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ALL OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 65.2W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 65.2 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A motion toward the north-northeast is forecast to occur by this afternoon and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move farther away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Some areas in southeastern Puerto Rico have already received up to 5 inches of rainfall, which has caused some flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart Quote 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250852 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Karen's convection has increased significantly and become better organized since the previous advisory. The well-defined low-level circulation center that previously had been fully exposed now has intense convection with cloud tops of -85C to -90C almost completely encircling the center at times. During the last leg of an earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, an 850-mb flight-level wind of 46 kt and SFMR surface winds of 37 kt were observed in the southeastern quadrant, suggesting that Karen may have weakened slightly during an earlier convective hiatus. However, the recent increase in deep convection over the center, along with a pronounced increase in the Doppler velocities and the development of a smaller radius of maximum winds of less than 10 nmi above 20,000 ft, suggest that Karen has likely strengthened. For now, however, the intensity is being maintained at 40 kt. The secondary mid-level circulation that had developed north of Puerto Rico several hours ago has since weakened based on San Juan Doppler radar data and satellite images. Now that deep convection has redeveloped, resulting in a stronger and deeper the vortex column, the motion has steadied off in a northerly direction of 360/12 kt over the past 6 hours. A northward motion is forecast to continue this morning, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast by this afternoon. A north-northeastward to northeastward motion accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected in the 12-48 hour period. By 72 hours, steering currents are forecast to collapse and Karen is expected to stall or make a clockwise loop. By 96 and beyond, the global models forecast that a ridge will build eastward from the southeastern United States to Bermuda, forcing Karen in a slow westward to west-southwestward direction. The new NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the simple consensus track model TVCN, which is about midway between the corrected-consensus models FSSE located to the north and NOAA-HCCA to the south. The intensity forecast remains somewhat perplexing with the dynamical global and regional models showing no strengthening for the next 4 days, followed by weakening and even dissipation by day 5, whereas the GFS- and ECMWF-based statistical-dynamical models show slow but steady strengthening during the forecast period with Karen becoming a hurricane by 120 hours. The main reasons for global models weakening the cyclone is due to the low- and upper-level circulations decoupling in about 3 days, followed by very dry mid-level overspreading of the low-level circulation, shutting off convective development. The problem with that scenario is that Karen will be moving into very low vertical shear conditions and underneath an upper-level anticyclone by 36 hours, which favors strengthening since the cyclone will also be sitting over 29 deg C water of considerable depth. For now, the new official intensity forecast remains a compromise between the weak dynamical model solutions and the stronger SHIPS intensity forecasts, which is a little above the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE. Key Messages: 1. Karen will continue to produce rainfall causing flash floods and mudslides across Puerto Rico, Vieques and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today even as the center moves away from the region. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 20.5N 65.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 22.3N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 24.5N 63.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 26.4N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 27.1N 61.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 26.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 25.9N 67.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 Latest doppler of Karen as storm has mostly moved north of Puerto Rico - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Maybe I'm just wishcasting but I don't see how Karen doesn't get its act together today. It's sitting over hot water, low shear, and moist air. It also looks like it's trying to get banding together on satellite rather than being just a blob of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Latest doppler of Karen as storm has mostly moved north of Puerto Rico - Get a load of this interesting feature to the west of Karen over the Bahamas, ULL?Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 3 hours ago, cptcatz said: Maybe I'm just wishcasting but I don't see how Karen doesn't get its act together today. It's sitting over hot water, low shear, and moist air. It also looks like it's trying to get banding together on satellite rather than being just a blob of convection. Looks like a disorganized mess this morning imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Get a load of this interesting feature to the west of Karen over the Bahamas, ULL? Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk I saw that last night on one of the sat floaters (and it was spinning too) and thought it might have been a naked Karen but then saw other images of Karen that were to the east and showed the convection we have seen around Karen previously. I wasn't sure WTF that was! Maybe some MCS or water spout or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 I saw that last night on one of the sat floaters (and it was spinning too) and thought it might have been a naked Karen but then saw other images of Karen that were to the east and showed the convection we have seen around Karen previously. I wasn't sure WTF that was! Maybe some MCS or water spout or something. That would be the mother of all water spouts because even that recon path shows a spinning low... Those 60-64kt wind barbs really are a "what are they doing there?!" featureSent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 19 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: That would be the mother of all water spouts because even that recon path shows a spinning low... Those 60-64kt wind barbs really are a "what are they doing there?!" feature Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Here's a screenshot I annotated (a bit silly I know ) - pretty fascinating stuff going on there! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Did Karen and Jerry already procreate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Did Karen and Jerry already procreate?BwahahahahahahaaSent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Here's a screenshot I annotated (a bit silly I know ) - pretty fascinating stuff going on there! Karen and Jerry had a babySent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 I wouldn't be surprised if Karen is dropped later today or tomorrow. That is indeed a ULL. Karen is on the eastern side. So more than likely she will get shredded apart by the trough. Note that swirl above the ULL is Jerry... well what's left.https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/08/1000x1000.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 That feature being discussed above is a mid-to-upper level low. It's not represented much below the 400 mb level though. This feature could actually help enhance Karen as it retrogrades WSW if Karen would ever get its act together and consolidate a stacked vortex. But alas, Karen is finicky and hasn't shaken off its interaction with PR and NErly mid-level displacement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 10 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Did Karen and Jerry already procreate? 7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Karen and Jerry had a baby Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Thread winners! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Karen is still having a tough time establishing and maintaining a well-organized structure. The deep convection which developed over the center earlier this morning has since collapsed, leaving a ragged and disorganized cloud pattern. In addition, a sizable outflow boundary moving away from the eastern part of the circulation suggests that there is dry air within the vortex. The initial intensity is being held at 40 kt, pending possible scatterometer data later this morning and a reconnaissance flight this afternoon. The initial position is a little difficult to locate, but the best estimate of the current motion is 360/13 kt. Karen is moving northward between a mid-level high centered over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low located just east of the Bahamas. This low is expected to slowly retrograde westward, with ridging developing over the western Atlantic by day 3. This change in steering will cause Karen to turn northeastward during the next 48 hours but then make a clockwise loop once it is blocked by the ridge. After day 3, the ridge should force Karen to move west-southwestward. Most of the track models agree on this general scenario. There is some latitudinal spread on days 4 and 5 after the loop occurs, with the HWRF being the most notable outlier by not showing much of a westward motion. The consensus aids, however, have remained fairly steady, and therefore there was no compelling reason to make any significant changes compared to the previous track forecast. Except for the possibility of dry air in the circulation, it's not quite evident why Karen has not been able to sustain organization. Still, the cyclone is expected to move beneath an upper-level anticyclone during the next 24-48 hours, and if the shear does indeed decrease, then some strengthening would be expected. There continues to be a dichotomy among the intensity models, with the dynamical models (including the GFS and ECMWF) keeping the cyclone weak while the statistical-dynamical models still show intensification through days 4 and 5. It's difficult to ignore what's being shown by the global models, since there must be something in the environment that they're deeming to be negative for continued strengthening. The best course of action at this point is to maintain a steady intensity after 48 hours, but it should be noted that what is shown in the official forecast still lies above the ICON intensity consensus and the HCCA corrected consensus aid. Key Messages: 1. Karen will continue to produce heavy rainfall, potentially causing additional flash floods and mudslides, across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today even as the center moves away from the region. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 21.7N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 23.4N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 25.4N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 26.9N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 27.5N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 26.8N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 26.0N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 25.5N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 1 minute ago, FLweather said: I wouldn't be surprised if Karen is dropped later today or tomorrow. That is indeed a ULL. Karen is on the eastern side. So more than likely she will get shredded apart. Note that swirl above the ULL is Jerry... well what's left.https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/08/1000x1000.jpg Well now that I found the source of this handy dandy site - there is a small area where Karen could move without shredding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Karen is still having a tough time establishing and maintaining a well-organized structure. The deep convection which developed over the center earlier this morning has since collapsed, leaving a ragged and disorganized cloud pattern. In addition, a sizable outflow boundary moving away from the eastern part of the circulation suggests that there is dry air within the vortex. The initial intensity is being held at 40 kt, pending possible scatterometer data later this morning and a reconnaissance flight this afternoon. The initial position is a little difficult to locate, but the best estimate of the current motion is 360/13 kt. Karen is moving northward between a mid-level high centered over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low located just east of the Bahamas. This low is expected to slowly retrograde westward, with ridging developing over the western Atlantic by day 3. This change in steering will cause Karen to turn northeastward during the next 48 hours but then make a clockwise loop once it is blocked by the ridge. After day 3, the ridge should force Karen to move west-southwestward. Most of the track models agree on this general scenario. There is some latitudinal spread on days 4 and 5 after the loop occurs, with the HWRF being the most notable outlier by not showing much of a westward motion. The consensus aids, however, have remained fairly steady, and therefore there was no compelling reason to make any significant changes compared to the previous track forecast. Except for the possibility of dry air in the circulation, it's not quite evident why Karen has not been able to sustain organization. Still, the cyclone is expected to move beneath an upper-level anticyclone during the next 24-48 hours, and if the shear does indeed decrease, then some strengthening would be expected. There continues to be a dichotomy among the intensity models, with the dynamical models (including the GFS and ECMWF) keeping the cyclone weak while the statistical-dynamical models still show intensification through days 4 and 5. It's difficult to ignore what's being shown by the global models, since there must be something in the environment that they're deeming to be negative for continued strengthening. The best course of action at this point is to maintain a steady intensity after 48 hours, but it should be noted that what is shown in the official forecast still lies above the ICON intensity consensus and the HCCA corrected consensus aid. Key Messages: 1. Karen will continue to produce heavy rainfall, potentially causing additional flash floods and mudslides, across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today even as the center moves away from the region. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 21.7N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 23.4N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 25.4N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 26.9N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 27.5N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 26.8N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 26.0N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 25.5N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 NHC 11am advisory: "Except for the possibility of dry air in the circulation, it's not quite evident why Karen has not been able to sustain organization.... It's difficult to ignore what's being shown by the global models, since there must be something in the environment that they're deeming to be negative for continued strengthening." In other words: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 25 minutes ago, Windspeed said: That feature being discussed above is a mid-to-upper level low. It's not represented much below the 400 mb level though. This feature could actually help enhance Karen as it retrogrades WSW if Karen would ever get its act together and consolidate a stacked vortex. But alas, Karen is finicky and hasn't shaken off its interaction with PR and NErly mid-level displacement. Levi tweeted a 6z GFS run of what was assumed to be Karen, rolling across the Bahamas. But am wondering if the GFS may have been keying on that ULL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Well, I guess the irresponsible hype in this morning headline is for naught... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, Solak said: Well, I guess the irresponsible hype in this morning headline is for naught... Well who knows? They may get some impact from the spawn of Jerry & Karen - "Jer-ren". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Well who knows? They may get some impact from the spawn of Jerry & Karen - "Jer-ren". I was having a crappy morning, thanks for the laugh!!!! I really needed itSent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Recon found some 45mph winds se of the center. Closing in on the center winds appear to be TD status. Satellite doesn't show anything special. Deep convection getting blown to the NW west of the center. Karen slowly fading away. Too bad she didn't get to talk to the manager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: I was having a crappy morning, thanks for the laugh!!!! I really needed it Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk I got to bed late last night (for me) so apologize to the board for my silly stuff this morning. I know it's been quiet in here the past couple days after the intensity of the Dorian & Humberto discussions and wanted to liven it up a bit while pointing out some interesting phenomena going on with these current storms. I have had to train my brain to think in "3-D" as it is so it's sea change for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, FLweather said: Recon found some 45mph winds se of the center. Closing in on the center winds appear to be TD status. Satellite doesn't show anything special. Deep convection getting blown to NW west of the center. Karen slowly fading away. Too bad she didn't get to talk to the manager. Well it just got done traversing a land mass so I would expect a weakening from that. But there is a center here and there still in it. And what looks like little vortexes around the perimeter of a center too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 1st dropsonde from AF304 found 32 knots so at least in that position, still hanging on to TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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