Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 14 minutes ago, hlcater said: I think calling it a TC at this point may be a bit generous... Looking at the vis loops, there does appear to be a circulation under that convection - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Looking at the vis loops, there does appear to be a circulation under that convection - Might be earth relative. Would explain why it looks closed on visible but not on recon. With 0kt flow on the southern side of the low essentially "closing" it off as it moves NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 Just now, hlcater said: Might be earth relative. Would explain why it looks closed on visible but not on recon. With 0kt flow on the southern side of the low essentially "closing" it off as it moves NW Yeah I don't think it is really closed but it is slowly spinning. Still learning how to read these types of ops (from here - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml)- Quote 381 URNT15 KNHC 231558 AF307 0312A KAREN HDOB 37 20190923 154900 1402N 06601W 9807 00254 0095 +248 +241 279007 007 017 000 00 154930 1401N 06559W 9807 00256 0096 +244 +243 269009 010 017 000 05 155000 1402N 06558W 9809 00254 0095 +245 +243 266006 009 /// /// 05 155030 1403N 06558W 9809 00254 0096 +249 +242 272005 006 016 000 00 155100 1405N 06558W 9808 00256 0096 +247 +244 263005 006 022 001 01 155130 1406N 06558W 9806 00258 0098 +250 +242 320004 005 021 002 00 155200 1408N 06558W 9805 00260 0098 +251 +243 332004 005 018 000 00 155230 1409N 06558W 9806 00258 0098 +253 +242 006004 004 017 000 03 155300 1411N 06558W 9807 00258 0098 +255 +239 040004 005 014 000 00 155330 1413N 06558W 9807 00258 0098 +255 +239 044004 005 016 000 03 155400 1414N 06558W 9805 00259 0098 +255 +241 047004 005 015 000 03 155430 1416N 06558W 9809 00257 0099 +253 +243 057003 005 015 000 00 155500 1417N 06558W 9807 00258 0099 +255 +244 057004 005 014 000 00 155530 1419N 06558W 9807 00258 0098 +255 +247 058004 004 014 000 00 155600 1420N 06558W 9809 00257 0098 +255 +243 051004 005 015 000 03 155630 1422N 06558W 9805 00260 0097 +255 +241 043005 005 015 000 00 155700 1423N 06558W 9808 00257 0098 +255 +239 041005 005 015 000 00 155730 1425N 06558W 9806 00258 0098 +255 +240 043005 005 015 000 00 155800 1426N 06558W 9806 00259 0098 +255 +241 056004 005 014 000 00 155830 1428N 06558W 9808 00258 0098 +255 +242 033004 005 014 000 00 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 12z HWRF looks more realistic this run in that it shows several periods of MCS/MLC redevelopment being sheared off on approach to PR versus organization and intensification to strong TS or Cat 1 hurricane shown in previous runs. That is the most likely scenario. Run is not through but it's kind of pointless with so many unknowns on dissipation, stall or turn, etc. Better to watch globals at that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 2 pm update (Karen "barely hanging on") lol - Quote 777 WTNT32 KNHC 231757 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 200 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KAREN BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 65.2W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to re in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen in your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of poorly organized Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 65.2 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected by Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea today, and pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday morning. Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Karen could weaken to a tropical depression or degenerate into an open wave later today or tonight, however, little overall change in wind speed is expected over the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 3 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions expected in the warning area by Tuesday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Appears 12z GFS doesn't even have Karen at all after about Day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 If you want some LOLs... check out what the 12z CMC does with Karen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, yoda said: If you want some LOLs... check out what the 12z CMC does with Karen Looks like it gets cut off from view on this but it kept it alive (but looks almost like a fujiwhara effect going on there) - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Looks like Junk...probably won't survive it's trek through the Carribean sea....maybe it dies off to an open wave and it reorganizes when conditions become less hostile??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Euro has whatever is left of Karen ending up farther north and east in a few days compared to earlier runs. One major change is what's going on with Jerry. A few days ago Jerry was expected to be a solid hurricane that would quickly pass near Bermuda and get whisked northeast out to sea. Now, Jerry is badly sheared, much weaker, and much slower. A much-slower Jerry may tug more on Karen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 12z Euro still turns Karen west, but instead of gradual strengthening, it weakens it to a wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 5 pm update - Karen downgraded to a TD - Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 232039 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KAREN STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 65.6W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 65.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected late tonight or early Tuesday, and a northward to north-northeastward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea this evening, and pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late tonight or Tuesday morning. Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 3 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by late tonight. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown Quote 000 WTNT42 KNHC 232040 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Karen has become increasingly disorganized today. Visible satellite imagery and surface observations suggest that there is a broad low-level circulation, but the aircraft struggled to find a well-defined center. Based on the current lack of organization, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt. The environment ahead of Karen is forecast to remain quite hostile, with dry mid-level air and strong northeasterly shear continuing overnight. After Karen moves north of Puerto Rico over the western Atlantic, it may find itself in a more favorable upper-level environment, but given the current structure of the cyclone it should take some time for any potential re-strengthening to occur. As a result, the long-range intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory and remains of very low confidence. Karen is moving northwestward or 335/11 kt. Karen should turn northward later tonight or early Tuesday toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic caused by Jerry. A northward to north-northeast motion should then take the storm over the western Atlantic well to the east of the Bahamas around mid- week. After that time, a deep-layer ridge is forecast to build over the southeastern United States and far western Atlantic, which should cause Karen to slow down and become nearly stationary at days 4 and 5. The track guidance has trended toward Karen gaining more latitude before slowing, and the new NHC track forecast as been adjusted accordingly. The latter portion of the track forecast is still quite uncertain as the dynamical model guidance and their ensembles still exhibit large spread. Although Karen in shown to remain a tropical depression as it passed Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the tropical storm warning is begin maintained since only a small increase in the wind speed would make Karen a tropical storm again. In addition, windward facing areas at high elevation on the islands could experience winds higher than those shown in the official forecast. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of Karen's status and intensity, the system is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.9N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 17.2N 66.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 18.9N 66.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 21.3N 66.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 23.3N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 26.5N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 27.5N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 27.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 Looks like AF304 is on a run into Karen. Will be interesting to see if they can find any circulation left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 48 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Looks like AF304 is on a run into Karen. Will be interesting to see if they can find any circulation left. So far. Recon looks like crap. No west wind Possible center location of 1008mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Looking at visible and recon. What LLC there is. Any landfall will be west of PR. More towards DR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 8 pm update (system continues to be weak) - Quote 137 WTNT32 KNHC 232339 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 800 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...DISORGANIZED KAREN EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 65.7W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 65.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by early Tuesday, and a northward to north-northeastward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday morning and then move over the western Atlantic Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 3 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by early Tuesday. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 17 minutes ago, FLweather said: So far. Recon looks like crap. No west wind Possible center location of 1008mb. They were waiting for and then went with the 1008. I think Karen needs some Jerry mojo! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 15 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: They were waiting for and then went with the 1008. I think Karen needs some Jerry mojo! Well the popcorn ran out. Don't think the popcorn there or Jerry. Atm any LLC near the deep convection. South and west of what the models show. Especially over PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 1 minute ago, FLweather said: Well the popcorn ran out. Don't think the popcorn there or Jerry. Atm any LLC near the deep convection. South and west of what the models show. Especially over PR. Yeah Karen's convection has woken up a bit now. Jerry was rockin' and rollin' with the lightning most of the afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Recon has at least closed off a center with nw and w wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Jerry's the reason Karen is so heavily sheared in part. I thought Jerry was gonna be way past Bermuda by now. What's holding it up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 1 hour ago, Floydbuster said: Jerry's the reason Karen is so heavily sheared in part. I thought Jerry was gonna be way past Bermuda by now. What's holding it up? Models have jerry spinning and spinning for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Jerry eats Karen on the Icon. GFS is thinking about it too. Doesn't look good for Karen surviving if Jerry doesn't get out of the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Looks like Karen has been developing a lot deep convection over the past several hours. Defiantly looks better organized now then it has fot most of yesterday!! Latest Recon as of 2am finds Karen just below TS strength with a pressure of 1006mb. Would expect it to be a TS again with the 5am discussion!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 11 pm & 2 am updates (as of 2 am, the pressure has dropped a bit) - Quote ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 65.8W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 65.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by early Tuesday, and a northward to north-northeastward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and then move over the western Atlantic Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by early Tuesday. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN Quote 000 WTNT42 KNHC 240251 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Deep convection associated with Karen has increased during the past few hours, but the thunderstorm activity remains confined to the south of the center due to north-northeasterly shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the depression this evening, and a combination of the flight-level and SFMR data indicate that winds are just below tropical-storm-force. The aircraft measured a minimum pressure of about 1008 mb. Karen is currently situated near the western periphery of a subtropical ridge, and it is forecast to turn northward on Tuesday as it passes Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. After that time, a northward to north-northeastward motion seems likely as the cyclone moves into a weakness left behind by Tropical Storm Jerry. However, the models indicate that the trough will not capture Karen, and instead the cyclone could come to a stop or drift westward by the weekend as a ridge builds to the north of the system. Although the models agree on the overall scenario, the details are quite uncertain and there remains a large spread in the guidance at days 4 and 5. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the right of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus models. The environment is still quite hostile around Karen with north-northeasterly shear of about 20 kt currently impacting the cyclone. However, the upper-level wind pattern is expected to become more favorable during the next few days, and that could give it an opportunity to strengthen. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slow increase in winds through the forecast period. This forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies roughly between the aggressive SHIPS/LGEM models and the HWRF/HMON models which show little change in intensity during the next several days. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of Karen's status and intensity, the system is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 16.1N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 17.5N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 19.6N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 22.0N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 23.9N 65.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 26.8N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 28.0N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 28.0N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 240540 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 200 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FINDS KAREN NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 65.7W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 65.7 West. The depression is now moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Karen could become a tropical storm again later today. The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 Looks like recon sortof found a CoC (looks like the recon is done and they are headed back to the VI) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 5 am update and Karen got some of her mojo back! BUT P.R. had a 6.0 earthquake this morning Quote 127 WTNT32 KNHC 240850 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...KAREN BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... ...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 65.8W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located by the San Juan Doppler radar near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A north-northeastward motion is forecast tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart Quote 000 WTNT42 KNHC 240851 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 During the last pass through Karen's center around 0430 UTC, the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reported some believable SFMR winds of 34-35 kt in the southeastern quadrant and an extrapolated central pressure of 1006 mb. The 925-mb flight-level height had also decreased by almost 20 meters in about 2 hours, an indication that the lower pressure estimate was legitimate. Reflectivity and velocity data from the San Juan NOAA WSR-88D Doppler radar also enunciate that Karen's inner-core has become better defined over the past few hours. Satellite intensity estimates at 0600 UTC were T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, and T2.4/34 kt and 40 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively. Based on the recon and satellite intensity data, Karen has re-strengthened to tropical storm status. The initial motion is now northward or 360/06 kt. Karen's forecast track hinges heavily on the future intensity and associated vertical structure of the cyclone. The GFS, GFS-Legacy, UKMET, and HRWF dynamical models take a much weaker and more vertically shallow cyclone northeastward after 48 hours and either continue with that motion through day 5 or dissipate the system. In contrast, the ECMWF and many of its stronger ensemble members stall Karen around days 3-4 and then turn the somewhat stronger and deeper cyclone westward to west-southwestward to the south of a building ridge. Given that Karen is forecast to be stronger and vertically deeper than the weaker models, the current track forecast leans more toward the stronger ECMWF and ECMWF-Ensemble model solutions. The new NHC forecast is to the right of the previous advisory track and slower, especially on days 3-5, but the new track does not extend as far east as the weaker GFS, UKMET, and HWRF models or the consensus models that incorporate those three models. None of the dynamical models, including the HWRF and HMON hurricane models, show much in the way of strengthening once Karen moves north of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands except for the ECMWF model, despite the very low vertical wind shear conditions that the cyclone will be moving into by 24 hours and beyond. Given Karen's decent wind field and vertical structure, the expected low shear conditions, moist mid-level environment, and SSTs of more than 29 deg C for the next 48 hours or so, forecasting at least slow but steady strengthening seems to be quite reasonable. By days 3-5, the mid-level environment dries out significantly, which the weaker models seem to be keying on. However, if Karen strengthens as currently expected, then the cyclone's robust circulation should be able to mix out any dry air intrusions, allowing for at least additional modest intensification to occur in the 72-120 hour period. The official intensity forecast is a little above the previous advisory, and is basically an average of the weaker dynamical models and the stronger GFS- and ECMWF-based statistical-dynamical models Decay-SHIPS and LGEM. Key Messages: 1. Karen is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 16.8N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 18.1N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 20.1N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 22.6N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 24.6N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 27.3N 62.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 28.0N 63.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 27.7N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 There have been multiple smaller aftershocks as well... https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us60005mja/region-info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 Good morning Karen says P.R. - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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