Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 8 pm update (no changes) - Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 222336 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 800 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...POORLY ORGANIZED KAREN MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 63.0W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NW OF GRENADA ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 63.0 West. Karen is moving generally toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur later tonight or on Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move away from the Windward Islands this evening, and then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the east of the center. The International Airport on Grenada recently reported sustained winds of 30 mph (48 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday morning. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 Results of the AF307 recon - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Karen has demanded to see the manager of the atmosphere because all the shear is messing up her hair. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 11 pm / 2 am updates - Quote ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...KAREN MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 63.5W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WNW OF GRENADA ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Grenada and its dependencies. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. Additional warnings and watches may be required for portions of these areas on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 63.5 West. Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight through Monday night. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday morning. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Barbados...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch, storm totals 2 to 3 inches. Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 8 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Far northeast Venezuela...1 to 3 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN Quote 763 WTNT32 KNHC 230540 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 200 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KAREN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 63.6W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM W OF ST. VINCENT ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. Additional warnings and watches may be required for portions of these areas on later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 63.6 West. Karen is now moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday morning. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Barbados...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch, storm totals 2 to 3 inches. Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 8 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Far northeast Venezuela...1 to 3 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 5 am update (steady) - Quote ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...DISORGANIZED KAREN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 63.9W ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM W OF ST. VINCENT ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 63.9 West. Karen is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48 hours due to strong upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), mainly northeast through southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 8 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN Quote 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230856 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Karen's convective pattern has become quite disheveled looking this morning due to 20-25 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear. a narrow band of deep convection has recently reformed in the southeastern quadrant, but proximity to dry air has been hindering development and organization of that convection. The initial intensity has been held at 35 kt until the next reconnaissance flight later this morning provides new information on the strength of the cyclone. However, I would not be surprised if Karen has weakened to a tropical depression based on the lack of significant convection. The initial motion is now 320/07 kt. The track guidance remains in excellent agreement that Karen should continue a northwestward motion today toward a break in the subtropical ridge, followed by a northward motion on Tuesday that would take the center of the cyclone near or over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in about 36 hours. Karen is forecast to emerge over the southwestern Atlantic near 48 hours and then slow down significantly and possibly even stall or loop several hundred nmi north of Puerto Rico on days 4 and 5 as a large ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to the average of the consensus track models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE. The upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for the next 24 hours or so, and I would not be surprised if Karen weakens to a tropical depression during that time. By 36 hours and beyond, however, upper-level winds are expected to become much less hostile, allowing some modest strengthening to occur. By days 4 and 5, Karen is forecast to move underneath an upper-level anticyclone, which should allow for more significant intensification to occur. The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and follows the trend of the various intensity consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of the southern Windward Islands through tonight. 2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch is in effect. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding are possible on these islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 13.6N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.5N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 16.1N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 18.0N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 20.1N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 24.6N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 26.5N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 27.0N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 It'll be interesting to see how fast this strengthens once the environment allows strengthening to begin. Dorian, Humberto, and Jerry all strengthened much quicker than the NHC predicted once their environments started to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Still a long way to go and not entirely convinced Karen doesn't dissipate in such hostile northeasterly mid-to-upper level flow. If Karen makes it north of PR intact though, the building ECONUS ridge is quite a humdinger. Obviously Bahamas and Florida would be the immediate concern based on ECMWF op trend and EPS. The central and eastern GOM heat potential is high for a fast moving west to wnw tracking hurricane regardless of the Gulf Loop. Again, very early and too much uncertainty at this point, but the potential is eye-opening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 8 am interim (holding steady) - Quote 487 WTNT32 KNHC 231151 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 800 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KAREN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 64.4W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 64.4 West. Karen is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48 hours due to strong upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), mainly northeast through southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 8 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 Some thoughts from Levi - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 Seems the models are generally Karen to a point where it stalls and turns, although I noticed the Ukie has it make the turn further north than the Euro or GFS. Euro gif below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 Gefs - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 Levi mini-thread on Karen - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Seems the models are generally Karen to a point where it stalls and turns, although I noticed the Ukie has it make the turn further north than the Euro or GFS. Euro gif below. Some of the tropical models also turn Karen further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 RE: Levi on Karen, he is quite active this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Karen should actually encounter some better UL conditions as it turns North towards PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 NOAA Sats imagery of Karen - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 Karen's MW (last 24 hours) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Recon is struggling to find a west wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 23Location: 14.9°N 64.8°WMoving: NNW at 12 mphMin pressure: 1007 mbMax sustained: 40 mphUh, did they mess up the center? Or is Karen just that disorganized?Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Still a long way to go and not entirely convinced Karen doesn't dissipate in such hostile northeasterly mid-to-upper level flow. If Karen makes it north of PR intact though, the building ECONUS ridge is quite a humdinger. Obviously Bahamas and Florida would be the immediate concern based on ECMWF op trend and EPS. The central and eastern GOM heat potential is high for a fast moving west to wnw tracking hurricane regardless of the Gulf Loop. Again, very early and too much uncertainty at this point, but the potential is eye-opening.The northern gulf is bath water! 85+ in almost all areas. Pensacola & Mobile are in line to shatter warm records for September. Mobile has or is forecast to have highs in the 90’s every day but one (89). It was warm last year before Michael but it’s been down right hot this September! Might not be relevant to Karen but if a system affects us it will definitely have ample fuel in the form of water temps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Although deep convection has recently developed near the low-level swirl seen in early morning visible satellite imagery, the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating Karen has had difficultly finding a closed surface circulation. It is possible that a center reformation will occur near the new convection, so the system is still being classified as a tropical cyclone for now. The aircraft has found believable SFMR winds of 30-35 kt over the eastern portion of the system, which still supports an initial intensity of 35 kt. Given the current structure of Karen and moderate to strong northeasterly shear that should remain over the storm for the next 24 hours, no change in strength is anticipated during that time. It is also possible that Karen could degenerate into an open wave, if it has not done so already. Regardless of whether or not Karen is a tropical cyclone when it passes near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the system is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds in squalls and heavy rainfall over those areas. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for intensification, and the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening like most of the typically reliable intensity guidance, however, the confidence in this portion of the intensity forecast is low. The initial motion estimate is 335/10 kt. Despite the overall lack of organization of the system, the track guidance is still in good agreement on Karen turning northward tonight or early Tuesday into a weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic caused by Tropical Storm Jerry to its north. After 72 hours, a deep-layer ridge is forecast to build over the southeastern United States and western Atlantic which should slow Karen's northward progress and could cause the system to essentially stall over the western Atlantic by the end of the period. The new NHC track forecast is again close to the previous advisory, and is near the consensus aids through 96 h. At 120 h, the NHC forecast is south of the consensus models in deference to the more equatorward position shown by the ECMWF, but the spread of the guidance by that time is quite large, and confidence in the track forecast at days 4 and 5 is quite low. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of Karen's status as a tropical cyclone, this system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 14.9N 64.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 16.0N 65.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 17.7N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 19.6N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 21.9N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 25.6N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 27.0N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 27.0N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 11 am update (storm motion has sped up but system strength/winds still the same) - Quote 085 WTNT32 KNHC 231441 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KAREN NOT WELL ORGANIZED BUT HEADING TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 64.8W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 64.8 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected by Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea today, and pass pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday morning. Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little overall change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions expected in the warning area by Tuesday morning. Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 3 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown Quote 000 WTNT42 KNHC 231441 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Although deep convection has recently developed near the low-level swirl seen in early morning visible satellite imagery, the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating Karen has had difficultly finding a closed surface circulation. It is possible that a center reformation will occur near the new convection, so the system is still being classified as a tropical cyclone for now. The aircraft has found believable SFMR winds of 30-35 kt over the eastern portion of the system, which still supports an initial intensity of 35 kt. Given the current structure of Karen and moderate to strong northeasterly shear that should remain over the storm for the next 24 hours, no change in strength is anticipated during that time. It is also possible that Karen could degenerate into an open wave, if it has not done so already. Regardless of whether or not Karen is a tropical cyclone when it passes near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the system is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds in squalls and heavy rainfall over those areas. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for intensification, and the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening like most of the typically reliable intensity guidance, however, the confidence in this portion of the intensity forecast is low. The initial motion estimate is 335/10 kt. Despite the overall lack of organization of the system, the track guidance is still in good agreement on Karen turning northward tonight or early Tuesday into a weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic caused by Tropical Storm Jerry to its north. After 72 hours, a deep-layer ridge is forecast to build over the southeastern United States and western Atlantic which should slow Karen's northward progress and could cause the system to essentially stall over the western Atlantic by the end of the period. The new NHC track forecast is again close to the previous advisory, and is near the consensus aids through 96 h. At 120 h, the NHC forecast is south of the consensus models in deference to the more equatorward position shown by the ECMWF, but the spread of the guidance by that time is quite large, and confidence in the track forecast at days 4 and 5 is quite low. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of Karen's status as a tropical cyclone, this system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 14.9N 64.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 16.0N 65.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 17.7N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 19.6N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 21.9N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 25.6N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 27.0N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 27.0N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Sounds like NHC decided to not drop Karen at 11 but keep it a TC based off the disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 23 Location: 14.9°N 64.8°W Moving: NNW at 12 mph Min pressure: 1007 mb Max sustained: 40 mph Uh, did they mess up the center? Or is Karen just that disorganized? Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Highly disorganized. Looks like recon heading SW atm. They probably going to make another attempt at the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 11 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 23 Location: 14.9°N 64.8°W Moving: NNW at 12 mph Min pressure: 1007 mb Max sustained: 40 mph Uh, did they mess up the center? Or is Karen just that disorganized? Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk That flight pattern is almost like what I've seen when they are doing perimeter measurements. They are probably still trying to get a center for it in the middle of the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 6z GFS basically makes Karen a very weak TC that meanders into the Bahamas... Day 5 to Day 7 its barely there and then looks to degenerate into an open wave just before it moves into S FL on Day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Tropical models are all over. Some have it going into Florida, some straight ahead and some turn it further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Ya....I don't think any modeling at this stage is even remotely correct. Too many moving parts and potential interactions at this juncture. This can go anywhere at this point, and who really knows what kind of intensity it could be when it gets into range of where we even have an idea of where it may go.....???? Every and All options are on the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 I think calling it a TC at this point may be a bit generous... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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