Remnants of former Tropical Storm/Tropical Depression Karen

[Hurricane Agnes]

5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The latest official recon vort position is a good jump southwest of the previous positions (which were already jumping around a bit).  The dropsonde shows the wind coming from the ene at flight level, but then suddenly switching to the wsw about halfway down.  The next pass should be interesting.

Yup and wow.  Looks like the lowest pressures are to the SW -

[NJwx85]

A relocation of the center a bit further SW would probably end up hurting Karen in the long run because the steering flow is still to the North and a track a bit further to the West would bring the center across the heart of PR. Some of the peaks in that part of the island are over 3000 feet.

[NJwx85]

As others have said, two prominent spins currently on radar. One just SW of St. Croix and the other embedded under deep convection South of PR.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[cptcatz]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

A relocation of the center a bit further SW would probably end up hurting Karen in the long run because the steering flow is still to the North and a track a bit further to the West would bring the center across the heart of PR. Some of the peaks in that part of the island are over 3000 feet.

How have previous storms fared moving through PR in a direct south-to-north direction?  The entire island is only about 35 miles wide and the mountains are probably about 20 miles wide.  A storm moving at 10 mph would cross the mountains in a couple hours and clear the entire island in 3.5 hours.

[hawkeye_wx]

A 50 kt wind barb just showed up as recon approaches the newest adjusted center.  I don't think we've seen any of those over the last couple days.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

A relocation of the center a bit further SW would probably end up hurting Karen in the long run because the steering flow is still to the North and a track a bit further to the West would bring the center across the heart of PR. Some of the peaks in that part of the island are over 3000 feet.

There’s really not much to disrupt. This could easily open back up. If anything ever comes from Karen it will be after it passes PR

[Hurricane Agnes]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

A 50 kt wind barb just showed up as recon approaches the newest adjusted center.  I don't think we've seen any of those over the last couple days.

Was digging around trying to find a nice doppler animation of what I am seeing and I think this shows it - there is a little thing spinning up in the NE corner of the storm, near the end of the animation.  You can see it live on doppler right now (I saw it running my GR2Level 3 but can't make an animation out of that) -

 

[cptcatz]

^Yep, right at the western coast of St. Croix

[Hurricane Agnes]

2 pm update (Karen is sucking the energy from Jerry and has strengthened a bit)!

Quote

00
WTNT32 KNHC 241745
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...KAREN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS THE CENTER REFORMS A LITTLE TO THE
WEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 66.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 66.0 West.  Karen has
moved erratically during the past few hours as the center has
re-formed a little to the west.  However, it is expected to resume
a motion toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h) this afternoon.  A
north-northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is
forecast tonight through Wednesday night.  On the forecast track,
the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands this afternoon and then move over the western
Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional slow strengthening is expected during the
next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.  Surface observations
indicate that wind gusts to tropical-storm force are occurring over
portions of the Virgin Islands and southeastern Puerto Rico.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1005 mb
(29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are
currently spreading across the warning area.  Winds could be higher
on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated
terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

[hawkeye_wx]

Unfortunately, recon data at Tropical Tidbits stopped updating almost an hour ago.  However, the NHC site has a new recon vort message (a bit north of the last one, 1006 mb still).

[Hurricane Agnes]

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Unfortunately, recon data stopped updating almost an hour ago.

I think NOAA9 is supposed to go in there later today.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Last set available of recon into Karen - there were 5 drops into the eye(s) -

 

[FLweather]

2 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Was digging around trying to find a nice doppler animation of what I am seeing and I think this shows it - there is a little thing spinning up in the NE corner of the storm, near the end of the animation.  You can see it live on doppler right now (I saw it running my GR2Level 3 but can't make an animation out of that) -

 

Looking at radar  out of PR. The center reformed. They have consolidated 

That 2nd NE swirl appears to have become the primary center. 

As far as the center is concerned Eastern PR will be landfall. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

3 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Looking at radar  out of PR. The center reformed. They have consolidated 

That 2nd NE swirl appears to have become the primary center. 

The latest snapshot of the doppler.  It looks like it has been consolidating and hitting P.R. at the moment!

[Turner Team]

Looks on radar like there is now a dominant center SSW of Vieques. There is some banding that's forming over Puerto Rico that is starting to wrap around the new COC. There is also alot of lightning just south of the center.

[Hurricane Agnes]

7 minutes ago, Turner Team said:

Looks on radar like there is now a dominant center SSW of Vieques. There is some banding that's forming over Puerto Rico that is starting to wrap around the new COC. There is also alot of lightning just south of the center.

Here's a loop -

[Hurricane Agnes]

And Levi tweeted a loop as well -

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

Everyone watching Karen smacking P.R.  NOAA Sats tweet about it -

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

5 pm update  (hanging in there) -

Quote

000
WTNT32 KNHC 242048
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...CENTER OF KAREN NOW NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 65.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northeast with some increase in forward speed is forecast
tonight, with this motion continuing through Wednesday night.  On
the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours and
then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.  During the past few hours,
wind gusts of tropical-storm force have been reported in portions
of the Virgin Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are
currently spreading across the warning area.  Winds could be higher
on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated
terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Quote

000
WTNT42 KNHC 242049
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

The satellite appearance of Karen has improved over the past
several hours, with a large convective band wrapped about halfway
around the center in the western semicircle and an outer band in
the southeastern semicircle.  However, surface observations,
Doppler radar data, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the low-level circulation is elongated
from south to north and that multiple vorticity centers are present.
The lowest pressures and the strongest winds are at the southern
end of the elongation near the eastern end of the convective band,
and this is the center used for this advisory.  The Hurricane Hunter
aircraft reported 53 kt flight-level winds at 850 mb and data
suggesting a central pressure near 1005 mb, so the initial intensity
is increased to 40 kt.

The initial motion is again 360/7, with some uncertainty due to the
multiple vorticity centers and an apparent re-formation of the
center closer to the convection between 15Z-18Z.  Karen remains in a
complex steering environment that includes a low- to mid-level ridge
to the east and northeast, Tropical Storm Jerry to the north-
northwest, and a large mid- to upper-level trough extending from
near Jerry to eastern Cuba.  These weather systems should steer
Karen generally north-northeastward for the next couple of days.
This motion should bring the center of Karen near or over Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours and then into
the open Atlantic tonight.  During the 72-120 h period, the
large-scale models forecast a low- to mid-level ridge to build near
Karen, which will significantly slow its forward motion.  The track
guidance is in somewhat better agreement that this ridge will cause
Karen to turn westward near the end of the forecast period,
although there remains a lot of uncertainty about when and how
fast.  The new forecast track keeps Karen a little farther south
before this turn occurs, and thus the 120-h position is a little to
the south of the previous forecast.

Karen is moving into an area of weaker shear, and should remain in
that environment for the next 2-3 days.  Thus, strengthening is
expected, with the main limiting factor being the current poor
organization of the circulation.  From 72-120 h, the storm is
expected to start entraining dry air, which could limit
intensification despite the otherwise favorable shear and sea
surface temperature environment.  In addition, several of the
global models suggest that another round of shear could affect
Karen near the 120 h point.  If this occurs, the cyclone could end
up weaker than forecast in this advisory.  The new intensity
forecast has minor changes from the previous forecast, and it again
lies between the weaker dynamical models and the stronger
statistical-dynamical models.


Key Messages:

1.  Karen is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and
mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
today, where a tropical storm warning is in effect.  The rainfall
and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the
center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 18.0N  65.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 19.6N  65.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 21.9N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 24.2N  64.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 25.9N  63.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 27.2N  61.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 27.0N  62.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 26.5N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

Some more analysis of Karen by Levi -

 

[Floydbuster]

Meh. Not as excited about tracking this one as I was a few days ago. The "slow motion" doesn't bode well. If she moves briskly, then we could have something.

[Hurricane Agnes]

8 pm update (system is spinning over P.R. with flooding rain). Looks as if the cone is possibly being influenced by a possible tug from Jerry -

Quote

000
WTNT32 KNHC 242342
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
800 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF KAREN MOVED OVER VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA...
...HEAVY SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 65.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM N OF CULEBRA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 045 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Surface observations indicate that the broad circulation center of
Karen moved near or over the islands of Vieques and Culebra during
the past hour or so. At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of
Tropical Storm Karen was estimated near latitude 18.5 North,
longitude 65.3 West. Karen has been moving toward the northeast
near 10 mph (16 km/h). However, Karen should move toward the
north-northeast with some increase in forward speed tonight, with
this motion continuing through Wednesday night.  On the forecast
track, the center of Karen will move away from Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands during the next few hours, but the strong squalls
which are to the south of the center will continue to affect that
area through tonight. Karen should move over the western Atlantic
later tonight and Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. These winds area confined mostly to the southeast of the
center. Some strengthening is possible during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.  St. Thomas has recently
reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h)

The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations
and data from a reconnaissance plane is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are
currently spreading across the warning area.  Winds could be higher
on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated
terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

 

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

5 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Meh. Not as excited about tracking this one as I was a few days ago. The "slow motion" doesn't bode well. If she moves briskly, then we could have something.

One of those potential "long duration" storms.  One thing that might be interesting to see is what kind of interactions that Jerry might have with this storm, which seems to be something suggested by earlier model runs.

[cptcatz]

Can someone explain why Karen isn't rapidly intensifying right now?  There's basically no wind shear and no dry air in sight... what's hindering it?

[Hurricane Agnes]

16 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Can someone explain why Karen isn't rapidly intensifying right now?  There's basically no wind shear and no dry air in sight... what's hindering it?

It's sitting over land (including mountains).  It's possible that it will possibly deepen once it gets back out into the water. As a note, the pressure has been slowly dropping during the day.

[FLweather]

22 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Can someone explain why Karen isn't rapidly intensifying right now?  There's basically no wind shear and no dry air in sight... what's hindering it?

1 over and near land.

2 asymmetrical 

3 just started  getting better organized over the last 18 hours or so.

4 upper levels not providing adequate exhaust for deep convection 

Just because conditions are favorable does mean it will bomb out now. Structurally... it's not really stacked and has been sheared. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

Levi is confirming the 2 centers ("eyes") of this storm - one at the lower level and one at the mid-level.  And since the 2 are not stacked over each other, then you won't get the traditional "eye" where you can see down to the surface. And this system is dragging these 2 pieces along as it moves north.  I believe Jerry ran into the same issue with displaced/unaligned layers.

 

[FLweather]

27 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Levi is confirming the 2 centers ("eyes") of this storm - one at the lower level and one at the mid-level.  And since the 2 are not stacked over each other, then you won't get the traditional "eye" where you can see down to the surface. And this system is dragging these 2 pieces along as it moves north.  I believe Jerry ran into the same issue with displaced/unaligned layers.

 

I was about to call BS

But after looking.  The mid level center is clearly  over PR. But looking at Radar maybe some truth that statement. 

LLC definitely NE of PR. But how so quickly? 

Edit. 

LLC is definitely NE of PR.

Developing convection NE of PR shows banding on radar.

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

3 minutes ago, FLweather said:

I was about to call BS

But after looking.  The mid level center is clearly  over PR. But looking at Radar maybe some truth that statement. 

LLC definitely NE of PR. But how so quickly? 

 

 

AF300 has been in there tonight and has focused on the low-level center (where it appears the previous run was looking at the mid-level center) -

[Briz600]

Nothing really exciting here in San Juan. On and off moderate to heavy rain with light wind.