Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Awesome job keeping this thread updated HA, really appreciated!!! NHC leaning heavily towards the Euro & friends. Will be interesting to see what verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STxVortex Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Just for chuckles, here's a comparison of the NOAA WSR-88D radar long range base reflectivity scans of the proto-TS Imelda and the current TS Karen. The scans are from the CRP and JUA WFO's, IIRC the LR radar image scan diameter is ~500 miles. Note that the well-formed Imelda image is from about 11 hours before it's 'official' TS designation, but it wasn't being closely monitored att [surrounding gauges indicated baro falls and circulating windfield]. Imelda looked the part, but only brought an eventful rainfall and not much wind. If Karen eventually gets to the GOM it might be another major in all parameters. Pre-TS Imelda TS Karen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 10 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Awesome job keeping this thread updated HA, really appreciated!!! NHC leaning heavily towards the Euro & friends. Will be interesting to see what verifies. Thank you and given the ENSO neutral conditions, it will be interesting to see how these budding systems respond to it (outside of Dorian and Humberto). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 Some more thoughts from Levi - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 AF300 is in the storm right now and first drop in the eye (1006 mb) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 45 minutes ago, STxVortex said: Just for chuckles, here's a comparison of the NOAA WSR-88D radar long range base reflectivity scans of the proto-TS Imelda and the current TS Karen. The scans are from the CRP and JUA WFO's, IIRC the LR radar image scan diameter is ~500 miles. Note that the well-formed Imelda image is from about 11 hours before it's 'official' TS designation, but it wasn't being closely monitored att [surrounding gauges indicated baro falls and circulating windfield]. Imelda looked the part, but only brought an eventful rainfall and not much wind. If Karen eventually gets to the GOM it might be another major in all parameters. Pre-TS Imelda TS Karen Imelda was sitting in literal sauna water and am guessing the intensification was enough to give it enough momentum to finally move onto land. It will be interesting to see where Karen actually makes landfall given where they just found the eye (or at least one area where that is part of an eye). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 8 am update (holding steady and still moving due N) - Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 241136 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 800 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM KAREN MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, CULEBRA, AND VIEQUES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 65.8W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A north-northeastward motion is forecast tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STxVortex Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 18 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Imelda was sitting in literal sauna water and am guessing the intensification was enough to give it enough momentum to finally move onto land. It will be interesting to see where Karen actually makes landfall given where they just found the eye (or at least one area where that is part of an eye). Indeed, 'sauna water'! As a surfer and sailor around South Padre [on that radar image, due east of Brownsville], water temps in the upper 80deg/lower90's, plus sun, with exertion would get you overheated. We [kids too] swam the very warm and saline Laguna Madre, the GOM surf, and would sail offshore 10-15 miles to swim the warm open bluewater. Until I hooked my first Great White shark... :] a young one, only about 7-8 feet long, she had beautiful dentition ^^^^. :]] If she's still out there, she's probably 16'+ now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 Seems the eye is trying to reform to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 34 minutes ago, STxVortex said: Indeed, 'sauna water'! As a surfer and sailor around South Padre [on that radar image, due east of Brownsville], water temps in the upper 80deg/lower90's, plus sun, with exertion would get you overheated. We [kids too] swam the very warm and saline Laguna Madre, the GOM surf, and would sail offshore 10-15 miles to swim the warm open bluewater. Until I hooked my first Great White shark... :] a young one, only about 7-8 feet long, she had beautiful dentition ^^^^. :]] If she's still out there, she's probably 16'+ now. Plus it's shallow along the coast too. I remember being in Galveston around this time of year about 25 years ago and the "monotonous" forecast of "Partly cloudy, high 95. Tomorrow, partly sunny, high 96... Thursday, mostly sunny, high 96".... and the 85 degree water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STxVortex Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 31 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Plus it's shallow along the coast too. I remember being in Galveston around this time of year about 25 years ago and the "monotonous" forecast of "Partly cloudy, high 95. Tomorrow, partly sunny, high 96"... Thursday, mostly sunny, high 96".... and the 85 degree water. Nothing has changed, same forecast all the time, 90deg+ highs, 77-85 lows, offshore SST's 81-86deg, inshore higher. Most stations-of-record have recorded 90deg+ temps every day for 90+ days this summer. This is what Imelda, possibly Karen and/or a potential Melissa has to feed on, 27-31degC GOM bathwater: Corpus area Observations, incl GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 To quote Spock - "Fascinating"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 NOAA Sats monitoring Karen - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 To quote Spock - "Fascinating"... That is a large center... Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Karen is still being sheared, but the firehose is no longer aimed at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Any chance the center of Karen re-forms under that persistent area of deep convection where the MLC appears to be located, from the sat loop? Shear appears to be lessening and this has been the most vigorous and persistent convection of the system so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Certainly appears to be through the worst of the shear, as noted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 No changes at all with the 11am advisory. I'm a little surprised since it's looking much better on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 11 am updates - Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 241451 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...CENTER OF KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 65.8W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A north-northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this afternoon and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven Quote 000 WTNT42 KNHC 241452 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that there has been little change in either the structure or the intensity of Karen since the last advisory. The broad and elongated low-level center is located to the north of the strong convection, and the aircraft has reported a central pressure of 1007 mb and maximum 1500 ft flight-level winds of 35 kt south of the center. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is now 360/7. Karen is in a complex steering environment that includes a low- to mid-level ridge to the east and northeast, Tropical Storm Jerry to the north-northwest, and a large mid- to upper-level trough extending from near Jerry to eastern Cuba. These weather systems should steer Karen generally northward today, followed by a north-northeastward motion that should continue for a couple of days. This motion should bring the center of Karen near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this afternoon, then into the open Atlantic tonight. During the 72-120 h period, the large-scale models forecast a low- to mid-level ridge to build near Karen, which will significantly slow its forward motion. The new forecast track will continue the trend of the previous forecast and the ECMWF model in showing the ridge building enough to turn Karen west-southwestward by 120 h. However, other models suggest a looping motion or little motion during the 96-120 h, and this part of the forecast track is quite uncertain. The large-scale models forecast the shear that has been affecting Karen to diminish during the next couple of days, which should allow the cyclone to gradually strengthen. From 72-120 h, the storm is expected to start entraining dry air, which could limit intensification despite the otherwise favorable shear and sea surface temperature environment. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, and it lies between the weaker dynamical models and the stronger statistical-dynamical models. Key Messages: 1. Karen is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 17.5N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 19.1N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 21.3N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 23.6N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 25.5N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 27.8N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 28.0N 62.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 27.5N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 You can see where recon has been fixing an "eye". The strongest winds (so far from dropsondes) have been over on that east side (notably the SE side so far with one reading of 29 knots). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 You can see where recon has been fixing an "eye". The strongest winds (so far from dropsondes) have been over on that east side (notably the SE side so far with one reading of 29 knots). That does not look like due north to me... WNWSent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: That does not look like due north to me... WNW Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Well initially the storm was moving to the NW but now the eye appears to have shifted and is pointing to the NE... and the stronger winds appear to be on that E side... however the storm motion (at least from the MW loop and other bands) still appears to have the system lifting to the N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Well initially the storm was moving to the NW but now the eye appears to have shifted and is pointing to the NE... and the stronger winds appear to be on that E side... however the storm motion (at least from the MW loop and other bands) still appears to have the system lifting to the N.So this is one case where the recon fixes are wrong?Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: So this is one case where the recon fixes are wrong? Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk They were having issues with fixing a center yesterday. They just had another drop around/in the eye - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 To me it looks like the center could be reforming SW of St Croix. I think the swirl on radar is just a mesolow but it looks like it could be rotating around another COC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, Turner Team said: To me it looks like the center could be reforming SW of St Croix. I think the swirl on radar is just a mesolow but it looks like it could be rotating around another COC. Yes, that's where it appears to be ("pointing to" St. Croix which is to its NE and where the recons are flying from). I think they are trying to get a handle on the boundary of it, although I expect it may wobble around (a near-banned word... ) due to all the convection firing to its SW. But we'll see how it fares if it can get into a less hostile environment. I expect that if it were where Jerry is right now, it would probably be shredded apart completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 The current recon pass is interesting. Wind data shows a couple additional centers of spin at flight level (1500m) within the intense convection to the sw of the surface center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The current recon pass is interesting. Wind data shows a couple additional centers of spin at flight level (1500m) within the intense convection to the sw of the surface center. I think that happened to Jerry where the centers at various levels were not stacked initially. I believe AF300 is doing the low level recon and NOAA 9 is supposed to do the upper levels - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml Quote 2. TROPICAL STORM KAREN FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 76 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49 A. 24/2330Z,25/0530Z A. 24/1200Z B. AFXXX 0612A KAREN B. NOAA9 0712A KAREN C. 24/2230Z C. 24/0530Z D. 19.6N 65.9W D. NA E. 24/2300Z TO 25/0530Z E. NA F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 The latest official recon vort position is a good jump southwest of the previous positions (which were already jumping around a bit). The dropsonde shows the wind coming from the ene at flight level, but then suddenly switching to the wsw about halfway down. The next pass should be interesting. As others have noted, the layers are not synced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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