Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 Here we go - Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 220857 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORMS JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 60.2W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM E OF GRENADA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Trinidad and Tobago. The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Grenada and its dependencies. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Trinidad and Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued later today for other portions of the Windward Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued later today for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Elsewhere, interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 60.2 West. Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Karen will move across the Windward Islands this afternoon and tonight, and emerge over the southeastern Caribbean Sea Monday morning. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. Barbados recently reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach those islands within the warning area later this morning and afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Far northeastern Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart Quote 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220900 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Scatterometer surface wind data and observations from the Windward Islands indicate that the low pressure system just east of Tobago has become better defined. Infrared and microwave satellite imagery also show that deep convection has increased and has become better organized around the center. Barbados recently reported a 10-minute wind of 32 kt gusting to 39 kt, and the earlier scatterometer data showed a large field of 30-32 kt winds in the eastern semicircle. Based on these data, the low has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Karen. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the southern Windward Islands as a result. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/10 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on Karen moving northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 24-36 hours, followed by a turn toward the north into a break in the ridge currently located over the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. In the 72-96 hour period, Karen is forecast to slow down and possibly even stall and turn westward on day 5 as another large ridge moves eastward across the southeastern United States and builds to the north of the cyclone. The official track forecast lies close to the tightly packed consensus track models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and TVCX. Little, if any, change in intensity is expected for the next 48 hours due to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. However, the upper-level flow is expected to be difluent, which should help Karen maintain its current intensity despite the otherwise unfavorable shear conditions. By 72 hours and beyond, Karen is forecast to move underneath an upper-level anticyclone, which should result in a significant decrease in the shear and also enhance the upper-level outflow, allowing for some strengthening to occur. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA, and the Decay-SHIPS model. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands later today, and Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued for other areas in the Windward Islands later this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 11.9N 60.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 12.5N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 13.4N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 14.7N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 16.1N 65.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 19.9N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 23.4N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 25.6N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart Quote 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220857 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 60.2W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 60.2W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 59.8W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.5N 61.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.4N 63.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.7N 64.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.1N 65.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.9N 65.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 23.4N 65.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 25.6N 65.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 60.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART UPDATE- 248 WTNT62 KNHC 220908 TCUAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 510 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES... The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 Like a nebula - a TS is born! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 This thing is so new that had to dig for something that even showed it (GFS Hurricane model for 12-L) . I know a recon was scheduled to go in there today but that may end up being supplemented - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: This’ll be an interesting one to watch. Anomalous ridging can do crazy things. After a rough start to the season, guidance has become pretty good at signaling TC genesis potential. I was tracking this area of interest since Tuesday lol. Despite the guidance, still too early to say what the eventual track will be. Fortunately, shear is pretty strong and looks to keep this in check as it passes near PR. I'm just trying to find any sort of circulation in it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Ha, well they found it via surface obs so it’s there. Recon found a sharp wave yesterday with 35mph winds so I’m not surprised it closed off. I didn’t expect recon to sample 99L but it proved valuable. Karen formed with a lot of shear obliterating some of those cloud tops—it must be the peak of the season They had the recon in there scheduled for yesterday ("Windward Islands" recon) and will be in there later this morning and this afternoon - Quote 000 NOUS42 KNHC 201821 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0220 PM EDT FRI 20 SEPTEMBER 2019 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019 TCPOD NUMBER.....19-115 CORRECTION I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. HURRICANE JERRY FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74 A. 22/1200Z B. AFXXX 0910A JERRY C. 22/1000Z D. 23.6N 68.0W E. 22/1130Z TO 22/1500Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT 2. SUSPECT AREA (SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS) FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 76 A. 21/1800Z A. 22/1130Z,1730Z B. NOAA2 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0112A CYCLONE C. 21/1430Z C. 22/0915Z D. 10.0N 56.0W D. 11.5N 60.0W E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2130Z E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1730Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT Quote 000 NOUS42 KNHC 211715 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0115 PM EDT SAT 21 SEPTEMBER 2019 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019 TCPOD NUMBER.....19-116 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. TROPICAL STORM JERRY FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75 A. 22/2330Z A. 23/1130Z B. AFXXX 1010A JERRY B. AFXXX 1110A JERRY C. 22/1900Z C. 23/0845Z D. 26.4N 67.0W D. 27.8N 67.1W E. 22/2300Z TO 23/0230Z E. 23/1100Z TO 23/1430Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR WINDWARD ISLANDS) FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 76 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 74 A. 22/1800Z A. 23/1130Z,1730Z B. AFXXX 02DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0312A CYCLONE C. 22/1630Z C. 23/1015Z D. 12.8N 62.8W D. 14.2N 65.3W E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2230Z E. 23/1100Z TO 23/1730Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Also, I’m glad I woke up and checked my phone. You’ll do a great job updating the thread subtitle and I’ll get some comments in before this place gets polluted with garbage posts. This probably isn’t worth a whole hell of a lot this early in the lifecycle of Karen, but cutting through the noise the EPS does show significant early support for Karen getting trapped under very strong ridging. Where the individual members landfall is irrelevant. Now perhaps this changes and that escape route north of PR stays open, or we get a currently unidentified trough to weaken the ridge and kick this a la Dorian, but this is the kind of ridging we see that can create bona fide LR interest. I am an early riser so if you see me here late at night, my mind is normally blown. I am surprised this one kicked off before the one coming off the African coast that may end up named today (or perhaps tomorrow) as Lorenzo. Am watching that one too because it has a clear path to intensify although it may run into the same types of fish-storm conditions that Gabrielle experienced. Oddly enough, Jerry, as wacked-out as it is, may help clear the way a bit for Karen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 6z NAM has it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 8 am update (intermediate) - Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 221153 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 800 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...CENTER OF KAREN PASSING JUST NORTH OF TOBAGO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 60.9W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF GRENADA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Trinidad and Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued later today for other portions of the Windward Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued later today for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Elsewhere, interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Karen. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 60.9 West. Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Karen will move across the Windward Islands today, and emerge over the southeastern Caribbean Sea tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach those islands within the warning area this morning and afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Far northeastern Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 https://i.imgur.com/pGdgmeK.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said: https://i.imgur.com/pGdgmeK.mp4 So it barrels through Cuba and comes out even more intense! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 The first visible loop this morning shows the surface vort popping out from under the convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 0z eps has the west bend into Florida. It's going to really interesting what happens with this storm and when or if the west bend occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 11 am (holding steady) - Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 221454 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...KAREN BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 61.7W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF GRENADA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Trinidad and Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 61.7 West. Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move away from the Windward Islands later today, and then across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), primarily in squalls to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown Quote ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Radar and satellite imagery shows that convection associated with Karen has lost some organization since advisories were initiated early this morning. However, surface observations and a very recently arriving ASCAT data show that the circulation is well-defined, and is currently passing through the southern Windward Islands. Given the current sprawling structure, nearby dry mid-level air, and moderate northwesterly shear, no significant strengthening is expected through 48 hours. In fact, the system may have trouble surviving over the eastern Caribbean Sea as the global models predict an increase in northeasterly upper-level winds over the system on Monday. Once the cyclone moves north of Puerto Rico, the shear is forecast to decrease, and some strengthening is indicated in the official forecast, but this will depend on the structure of the system at that time. At this time, the long range intensity forecast is quite uncertain. The initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement on Karen turning northwestward, and then northward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge during the next day or two. A northward motion should continue into mid-week as a weakness in the ridge remains over the western Atlantic. After that time, models suggest that another ridge will begin to build over the southeastern U.S. and far western Atlantic which may cause Karen to slow down by the end of the forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and lies near the consensus models. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall will continue to affect the southern Windward Islands through tonight. 2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch has been issued. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding is possible on these islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 12.5N 61.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 13.1N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 14.2N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 15.4N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 16.9N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 20.7N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 23.4N 65.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 25.3N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 45 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 0z eps has the west bend into Florida. It's going to really interesting what happens with this storm and when or if the west bend occurs. It's kinda amazing how often that doesn't happen--east coast of Florida has been very fortunate! (There's like an invisible forcefield over that coast, lol) What's the last one that did? Andrew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's kinda amazing how often that doesn't happen--east coast of Florida has been very fortunate! (There's like an invisible forcefield over that coast, lol) What's the last one that did? Andrew? Well the last west bend was Sandy but for Florida, I'm not sure. It might have been Andrew. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Well the last west bend was Sandy but for Florida, I'm not sure. It might have been Andrew. Ah so Sandy actually did bend far enough to actually make landfall there? (I'm in the mid-atl but I think it was just north of me) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's kinda amazing how often that doesn't happen--east coast of Florida has been very fortunate! (There's like an invisible forcefield over that coast, lol) What's the last one that did? Andrew? Ivan looped de loop and hit FL from the east after coming back out into the ocean but Jeanne hit it directly. In fact, it seems some of the ensembles are sortof mimicking that Jeanne path. ETA - Frances hit from that side too - all 3 of those were in 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ah so Sandy actually did bend far enough to actually make landfall there? (I'm in the mid-atl but I think it was just north of me) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 30 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Ivan looped de loop and hit FL from the east after coming back out into the ocean but Jeanne hit it directly. In fact, it seems some of the ensembles are sortof mimicking that Jeanne path. ETA - Frances hit from that side too - all 3 of those were in 2004. Katrina hit the east coast of Fl. also. Currently the environment is pretty hostile in the far eastern Carib (as usual), but as you move west it gets much more favorable. Karen has some really good divergence overhead currently, much more than Jerry ever had. The Euro has been doing some tricky things with Karen the last day or 2 as was posted in the hurricane season thread. There is strong model consensus of ridging to the north building in in 3-5 days, strong enough to perhaps even push Karen back to the SW. We will see where she's at and what her attitude is when and if that truly happens. We are a week away from Oct. and if I still lived on the West coast of Fl. I would really be keeping my on this one. Fantasy land guidance is showing a nice path into west Fl. if something can slip into the SW/S GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 Just now, Jackstraw said: Katrina hit the east coast of Fl. also. Currently the environment is pretty hostile in the far eastern Carib (as usual), but as you move west it gets much more favorable. Karen has some really good divergence overhead currently, much more than Jerry ever had. The Euro has been doing some tricky things with Karen the last day or 2 as was posted in the hurricane season thread. There is strong model consensus of ridging to the north building in in 3-5 days, strong enough to perhaps even push Karen back to the SW. We will see where she's at and what her attitude is when and if that truly happens. We are a week away from Oct. and if I still lived on the West coast of Fl. I would really be keeping my on this one. Fantasy land guidance is showing a nice path into west Fl. if something can slip into the SW/S GOM. AF307 is getting ready to take off and go in there so it will be good to get some more data on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 LOL @ "messy storm" Karen - In all seriousness though, the track has it plow right through P.R. and with all that moisture, it will certainly be a rain-maker there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 2 pm update - Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 221748 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 200 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...CENTER OF KAREN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...GUSTY WINDS AND BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 62.3W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM N OF GRENADA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Trinidad and Tobago. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 62.3 West. Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move away from the Windward Islands later today, and then across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), primarily in squalls to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 12z Euro has an Andrew track through s FL to LA, but it remains fairly weak the entire time. These west turners often have favorable conditions to strengthen, though. It doesn't turn west for five days, assuming it survives, so there's nothing to be too concerned with, yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's kinda amazing how often that doesn't happen--east coast of Florida has been very fortunate! (There's like an invisible forcefield over that coast, lol) What's the last one that did? Andrew? Andrew was coming in from the east and heading west I believe. But it wasn’t coming from the south, and forecast to bend west like this may, or like Sandy did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 Naturally we get a TS and the first thing that comes up is Sandy comparisons. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 16 minutes ago, andyhb said: Naturally we get a TS and the first thing that comes up is Sandy comparisons. Actually the Sandy reference was just in response to my comment about hurricanes bending west, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aperson Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Andrew was coming in from the east and heading west I believe. But it wasn’t coming from the south, and forecast to bend west like this may, or like Sandy did. pretty wild that karen is going to be pulled in by a negatively tilted trough over florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 5 pm (they went with the 1007 that the recon found and cone is still showing that left turn) - Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 222036 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...GUSTY WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 62.7W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF GRENADA ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 62.7 West. Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur later tonight or on Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move away from the Windward Islands this evening, and then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday morning. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown Quote 000 WTNT42 KNHC 222037 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 The convective structure of Karen has continued to lose organization this afternoon, with the center becoming exposed to the north and northwest of the primary convective band. An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft investigating the storm has found a well-defined circulation, and flight-level and SFMR winds to support an intensity of around 30 kt. The plane, however, has not fully sampled the storm so the initial intensity remains 35 kt which is between the wind speeds indicated in earlier ASCAT data and the recent in situ observations. The upper-level environment ahead of Karen is forecast to remain unfavorable with the global models and SHIPS guidance predicting an increase in northeasterly shear by Monday. This is expected to prevent the storm from strengthening, and Karen may even have trouble maintaining tropical cyclone status while it moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. After the system moves north of Puerto Rico around midweek, it is forecast to reach more favorable upper-level conditions, and the NHC intensity forecast again calls for strengthening later in the forecast period. The new intensity forecast, however, is slightly more conservative than the previous one at days 3-5, and is a little above the latest intensity consensus (IVCN) model). The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. The track forecast philosophy is unchanged from earlier today. Karen should turn northwestward, and then northward during the next day or so as it begins to respond to a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. This motion should bring the center of Karen over Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. By late in the forecast period, the dynamical models build a strong deep-layer ridge over the southeast United States that extends northeastward over the western Atlantic. This pattern is likely to cause Karen to slow its northward progression by days 4 and 5. The track guidance remains in very good agreement, and only slight adjustments to the previous official forecast were required. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall will continue to affect the southern Windward Islands through tonight. 2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch has been issued. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding is possible on these islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 12.9N 62.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 13.7N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.9N 64.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 16.3N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 18.0N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 21.5N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 24.3N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 26.0N 66.3W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 Kinda wild looking but here's Karen's MW - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 18z GFS has it totally dissipating around Puerto Rico. It'll be interesting to see if it can keep itself together until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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