Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 2pm update (Jerry getting walloped in place but holding) - Quote 701 WTNT35 KNHC 231751 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...JERRY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 68.2W ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Jerry's just blowin' in the wind - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Jerry at it again... Latest IRSent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Jerry, Karen & Lorenzo have been getting fired up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Jerry's 5 pm update as it continues to take the shear and hang on (plus I see the track has shifted to mirror some of the models showing a SE bend) - Quote 789 WTNT35 KNHC 232031 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 68.3W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 8 pm update (still holding on) - Quote 203 WTNT35 KNHC 240004 CCA TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 26A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...JERRY CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 68.3W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 5 am update out (Jerry's winds have dropped a bit) - Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 240829 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...WEAKENING JERRY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 68.4W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 8 am update (Jerry is hanging on but weakening a bit) - Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 241159 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 28A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...JERRY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 68.9W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 11 am update (Jerry still holding on in that poor environment) - Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 241444 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...JERRY EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 69.3W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 11 am update (Jerry still holding on in that poor environment) - 000WTNT35 KNHC 241444TCPAT5BULLETINTropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 29NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1020191100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019...JERRY EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BERMUDATOMORROW...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...30.8N 69.3WABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF BERMUDAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES N at 350..Going to ride the upper part of the cone thenSent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 You guys think Jerry could pull a loop and start over again with a fresh chance? Any recent model guidance about what happens after the south curve? (Sorry if this is a stupid question) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: You guys think Jerry could pull a loop and start over again with a fresh chance? Any recent model guidance about what happens after the south curve? It seems some of the models (like the GFS ensembles) were showing Jerry rolling around to the SE and then S then to the SW (although they don't go as far as looping it from the latest time frames). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 NASA Hurricane group noting the shear taking a toll on Jerry (you can see the "naked swirl" sticking out to the SW ) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Well at least in this brief moment, Jerry looks more "hurricane-ey" than he has in who knows how long... without all the crap swinging around on top! Even if it is just a TS. But the shear is just blasting away at the top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 2 pm update and well sure enough, he sloughed all that stuff off he was dragging around and is now down to a slim 50 mph! But then a few folks have said, a "weaker" Jerry may end up dragging Karen up into the same vicinity so that will be something to watch for! Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 241735 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 29A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...JERRY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 69.1W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Hurricane Hunters' tweet of pics in Jerry - a sea of clouds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 5 pm update (Jerry hanging by a thread but still hanging in there)! Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 242048 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...JERRY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 69.0W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 8 pm update (little change although the storm motion has slowed to 5 mph) - Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 242342 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 68.9W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 11 pm update (Jerry's winds are now down to 45 mph) - Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 250239 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY A LITTLE WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 68.7W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 2 am (no changes and wind speed is holding) - Quote 683 WTNT35 KNHC 250559 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT JERRY IS MAINTAINING ITS WINDS FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 68.4W ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 5 am update and it's official - he's dead Jim. Now post-tropical (and may have implications for Karen) - Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 250853 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...JERRY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 67.9W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 67.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued northeasterly motion is expected through today, followed by a turn toward the east on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by this afternoon and could continue through this evening. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky Quote 000 WTNT45 KNHC 250854 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Jerry has lacked organized deep convection since around 1500 UTC yesterday. It is therefore now designated as a post-tropical cyclone. However, a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Bermuda, and advisories will continue to be issued on Jerry until it no longer poses any threat to the island. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft continued to fly through Jerry after the last advisory. The plane reported that Jerry's wind field has become quite asymmetric, with no tropical-storm-force winds in the western half of the cyclone. That said, on its last pass through the southeast quadrant of the cyclone the plane reported max flight level winds of 55 kt at 925 mb and believable SFMR winds of 40 kt. The intensity of Jerry is therefore maintained at 40 kt for this advisory. With no deep convection to sustain it, the cyclone should gradually spin down during the next few days. The dynamical models indicate that Jerry will dissipate in about 4 days and the NHC forecast does as well. A mid-latitude trough to the north has caused Jerry to turn northeastward, and the initial motion estimate is 055/6 kt. The models are in good agreement that the post-tropical low will continue generally northeastward today and tomorrow, steered by low-level southwesterly flow. On this track, the cyclone will pass very near Bermuda later today. The models are in excellent agreement on the track of Jerry, and only small adjustments were made to the previous NHC track forecast. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 31.8N 67.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 25/1800Z 32.3N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 26/0600Z 33.0N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 26/1800Z 33.9N 61.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 34.6N 59.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z 34.0N 55.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 8 am update (scraping north of Bermuda today) - Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 251145 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...JERRY EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 67.4W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Here's Jerry - off the coast and not that far from where I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...WEAKENING JERRY APPROACHING BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 66.8W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda If you wan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Jerry remains devoid of deep convection in an environment of dry mid-level air and strong westerly shear. Data from a new scatterometer pass indicate that the maximum winds are no more than 35 kt, and even that value could be generous. The system should remain in a hostile environment for the next few days, and simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest that no significant deep convection will redevelop within it. Therefore the official intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to gradually spin down over the next 2-3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is just slightly below the model consensus. The cyclone has turned toward the east-northeast with some increase in forward speed, and the initial motion estimate is 060/8 kt. Jerry should continue to move east-northeastward, to the south of the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies, for the next day or two. Later in the forecast period, the weak cyclone is expected to turn east-southeastward along the northeastern periphery of a subtropical high pressure area, and dissipate. The official track forecast continues to follow the NOAA corrected consensus guidance rather closely. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 32.0N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 26/0000Z 32.6N 65.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 26/1200Z 33.4N 62.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 34.3N 60.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z 34.9N 58.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z 33.8N 54.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 NASA Hurricane's tweet about Jerry and its sat confirmation that Jerry is post-tropical - Discussion about this here - https://blogs.nasa.gov/hurricanes/2019/09/25/jerry-north-atlantic-ocean-6/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Jerry's 2 pm update - Quote 547 WTNT35 KNHC 251749 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 33A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...JERRY APPROACHING BERMUDA BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.1N 66.1W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry was located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 66.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A continued east-northeasterly motion is expected for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the east on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or over Bermuda later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by this afternoon and could continue through this evening. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 5 pm update (last public advisory for Jerry) - Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 252038 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY NO LONGER HAS SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 65.6W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 65.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the east and east-southeast is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or over Bermuda in a few hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible over Bermuda during the next several hours, especially at elevated sites. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Pasch Quote 716 WTNT45 KNHC 252038 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Multiple scatterometer passes over Jerry indicate that the cyclone no longer has sustained tropical-storm-force winds. Therefore Jerry is now a remnant low, and the Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. However, wind gusts to tropical storm force are still possible on the island during the next few hours, especially at elevated observing sites. Based on the scatterometer data, the current intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The low-cloud swirl is becoming less well-defined, and since the system will continue moving through a hostile environment of strong shear and dry mid-level air, steady weakening is likely. The cyclone should dissipate in 2-3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest intensity model consensus. The system is moving east-northeastward at a slightly faster clip, or 070/10 kt. A gradual turn to the east and east-southeast is forecast as the cyclone moves along the southern edge of the band of mid-latitude westerlies, and then turns to the right along the northeastern periphery of a subtropical anticyclone before dissipating. This is the last advisory on Jerry. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 32.2N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 26/0600Z 32.8N 63.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1800Z 33.7N 61.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0600Z 34.7N 59.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z 35.0N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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