Jackstraw Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Jerry is back from the dead... Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Dont tease me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Dont tease me lol.Go look at the 1min mesoSent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Holy moly those cloud tops... Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk A Milton the Monster toot toot from the top of the ole noggin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: Go look at the 1min meso Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Sorry was tongue in cheek post, Jerry, my avatar, back from the dead lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Jerry just hit the jackpot. The upper ridge is building right over it while it slides under a region of decreasing/negligible shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 This is a classic example of how even short range modeling can sometimes be incorrect and even a few hundred miles offset of an upper-atmospheric feature can be huge for a tropical cyclone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 8 pm update (not much change) - Quote 284 WTNT35 KNHC 202345 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 ...JERRY'S CENTER PASSING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE ON THOSE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 62.5W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NNE OF ANGUILLA ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NNW OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 Ridiculous convective mass. If the vortex has realigned, we're all in for a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 What would RI if it occurred mean for the track of Jerry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Jerry just hit the jackpot. The upper ridge is building right over it while it slides under a region of decreasing/negligible shear. Lets see how the track responds. That UL ridging has been tight and strong just to his E/SE. It's expanded over the last 24 hours. It's not uncommon for weaker storms to slip under these like a mouse dashing for cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 Jerry's fired up and ready to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 You can really see the mid level vortex take off here..... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Antilles-09-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 Latest MW pass looks much improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 Latest MW pass looks much improved.I see an eyeSent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 That mid-level vort looks like it might already be decaying. Recon is en route so we'll get some confirmation on structure soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 RE: Recent MW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 And... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 Wow guess all my reverse psychology earlier really paid off lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 First recon pass was underwhelming to put it mildly. Looks like the impressive convective burst earlier was an intense MCS that was not coupled. Hence why it rotated WSW and decayed. If anything, it may've actually weakened the LLC more since it tilted the mid-level vort and shredded off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Wow guess all my reverse psychology earlier really paid off lol. On second thought...no. According to the post after yours from Windspeed, Jerry’s probably weaker than it previously was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aperson Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 next recon pass had 992.6 on HDOB 18. Easy come, easy go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 7 pages for this fish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 7 pages for this fish Ah hell, it's the tracking and analyzing any MDR system that's interesting when it comes to the slightest threat to land. Additionally there remains a window that Jerry could reintensify. Also Bermuda could still be impacted, which they just got a punch in the face from Humberto, so it remains worth watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said: 7 pages for this fish let's make it 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 As of the 2 am update.... Well Jerry blew off his top like a volcano and is now down to a TS & looks like it will take longer before the theoretical reintensification (also including the latest 5 am) - Quote ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 ...JERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 63.5W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES Quote ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 ...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 64.0W ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM S OF BERMUDA ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 9 hours ago, Jackstraw said: Sorry was tongue in cheek post, Jerry, my avatar, back from the dead lol. This one's for you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 MW showing Jerry like a rollin' wagon of fireworks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 7 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: let's make it 8 The next one after this also looks like a fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 11 am update (not much change but core is getting weaker) - Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 211452 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 ...CENTER OF JERRY PASSING WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 65.0W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM S OF BERMUDA ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES Also interesting that the track has changed very little. Still on target to hit Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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