yoda Posted September 19, 2019 Author Share Posted September 19, 2019 Bermuda looks to take a direct hit from Jerry on Day 5 per the current track... forecast to be a CAT 1 at that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 19, 2019 Author Share Posted September 19, 2019 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Jerry is a compact hurricane on satellite imagery with the central dense overcast becoming more symmetric during the past few hours. Before the Air Force plane departed, the crew recorded 700-mb flight-level winds of 97 kt and SFMR winds of about 70 kt, suggesting maximum winds of about 75 kt. Since that time, an eye feature has been noted on the last-light visible images, indicating that the earlier intensification has probably continued. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 80 kt, and the next aircraft is scheduled to investigate Jerry around 0000 UTC to obtain a better estimate. The hurricane still has some time to strengthen before northwesterly shear increases by tomorrow morning. The shear increase will also probably allow some environmental dry air to be entrained into the central core and help weaken the cyclone. Thus weakening is anticipated by late tomorrow continuing into Saturday. Some re-strengthening is possible early next week as Jerry could find a lower shear region due to a mid-latitude trough interaction. The new NHC wind speed prediction has not changed too much, but is a little higher at longer range to reflect the above possibility. The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 295/15 kt. A large subtropical ridge to the northeast of Jerry should continue to steer the hurricane at about the same direction and speed during the next day or two. The models have generally trended a bit to the north on this cycle at short range, and the official forecast follows suit. Thereafter, Jerry is forecast to move around the then-weakening ridge, turning to the northwest on Saturday, north-northwest on Sunday, and then northward and north- northeastward by Monday/Tuesday. The guidance has moved to the northeast at longer range on this cycle, possibly due to a stronger mid-latitude trough helping to weaken the ridge. The NHC forecast is adjusted to the northeast on this advisory, although is still on the western side of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 17.5N 55.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 18.4N 57.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.5N 60.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.7N 63.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 21.9N 65.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 24.9N 68.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 28.0N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 33.0N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 22 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: What happened to NOAA2? It hasnt reported in awhile... It was listed as a "Training Mission" so they may just be training and reporting when they can. It got done flying over P.R. and is still going to the SE. Quote NOAA2 Training Mission Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm As of 17:20 UTC Sep 19, 2019: Aircraft Position: 17.80°N 65.32°W Bearing: 117° at 258 kt Altitude: 3111 gpm Peak 10-second Wind: 14 kt at 130° Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1008.4 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 NOAA will list re-locations as training missions sometimes. haven't had a chance to look but kermit could be heading to one of the leewards to prep scouting the next system which has a much better chance of being a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Jackstraw said: NOAA will list re-locations as training missions sometimes. haven't had a chance to look but kermit could be heading to one of the leewards to prep scouting the next system which has a much better chance of being a threat. That would make sense given where the storm is at the moment. AF304 is en route to the storm at this moment (NOAA9 is still surveying the perimeter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 Yes Kermit will be able to get to Jerry and the next system from Barbados and/or St. Thomas. logistical management on tight budgets lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 8 pm update (Jerry getting robust... just 6 mph away from CAT 2 but getting closer to a direct Bermuda hit) - Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 192358 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JERRY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 56.5W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Recon found a 978 in its initial pass over what is supposedly an "eye" (I can't see an eye... it must have glaucoma or something ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 So we have Dorian coming close then OTS, OTS progressively east as the western side of the Atl. ridging gets beaten down. That rubberband has got to snap and something's going to get caught under a robust westward building ridge at some point I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 So we have Dorian coming close then OTS, OTS progressively east as the western side of the Atl. ridging gets beaten down. That rubberband has got to snap and something's going to get caught under a robust westward building ridge at some point I would think.Uh, you mean Jerry? Or talking about how close Dorian and Humberto DID come?Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 30 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: So we have Dorian coming close then OTS, OTS progressively east as the western side of the Atl. ridging gets beaten down. That rubberband has got to snap and something's going to get caught under a robust westward building ridge at some point I would think. The general consensus I've read seems to be the 500mb pattern will favor recurves east of the CONUS the remainder of this season, but of course never say never when it comes to the weather and October is when things often spin out of the Caribbean and get nasty in the Gulf as we saw with Michael last year and to a lesser extent Nate the year before. I don't know how much difference it would have made rain-wise for Beaumont, but with the way it spun up, imagine what Imelda could have done with another 24 hours over water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Dropsonde #5 from AF304 into the NE eyewall found 88 knots and if valid and accepted, Jerry could be upgraded to a CAT 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 11 pm/2am/5am updates (now a CAT 2 moving along at a good clip, but with fluctuating pressure). The central line of the cone (verbatim) is a direct hit on Bermuda - Quote ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JERRY STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 57.2W ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200531 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 ...JERRY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 57.9W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200837 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 ...JERRY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THAT AREA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 58.7W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 11 pm/2am/5am updates (now a CAT 2 moving along at a good clip, but with fluctuating pressure). The central line of the cone (verbatim) is a direct hit on Bermuda - ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMBULLETINHurricane Jerry Advisory Number 11NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1020191100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JERRY STRONGER...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...18.0N 57.2WABOUT 385 MI...625 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES 000WTNT35 KNHC 200531TCPAT5BULLETINHurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 11ANWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019200 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019...JERRY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARDISLANDS LATER TODAY...SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...18.1N 57.9WABOUT 340 MI...550 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES 000WTNT35 KNHC 200837TCPAT5BULLETINHurricane Jerry Advisory Number 12NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019500 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019...JERRY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARDISLANDS AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THAT AREA LATER TODAY...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...18.4N 58.7WABOUT 290 MI...465 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WNW at 290...last few days it was 295, something to watch...Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: WNW at 290... last few days it was 295, something to watch... Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Was looking at the GFS 6z and the Euro 0z and it seems there's an expectation that Jerry will weaken as it moves past the Leewards (shear?) and then sortof gets itself back together and continues to restrengthen (but not by much) on its way past Bermuda. The 6z GEFS appears to have initialized with the large dome of high pressure currently over my area, not in the right place and much further south (although it is supposed to move there eventually)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 59.6 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to continue today, but Jerry is expected to remain a hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently reported a minimum central pressure of 989 mb (29.20 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 8 am and it is weakening and the big puffball is having issues forming some kind of recognizable eye - Quote 057 WTNT35 KNHC 201142 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 ...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM JERRY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 59.6W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ENE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Lots of shear today to the North and East of the center and increasing. If Jerry would have taken a track closer to Puerto Rico the upper air environment would have been much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Shreddola. Not totally surprising given that a lot of the guidance severely weakened Jerry as it approached this area. I think it's completely possible that the centers will decouple, with one piece heading towards the Caribbean and the other center continuing on the NW track. Several model runs had this scenario, including a few Euro runs. If this were to occur, the upper air environment is a lot more conducive for development in the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Shreddola. Not totally surprising given that a lot of the guidance severely weakened Jerry as it approached this area. I think it's completely possible that the centers will decouple, with one piece heading towards the Caribbean and the other center continuing on the NW track. Several model runs had this scenario, including a few Euro runs. If this were to occur, the upper air environment is a lot more conducive for development in the Caribbean. Just based on its appearance, it looked as if the upper and lower level portions of it were not aligned (stacked) nor moving at the same speed so it's like it was literally sliced in half and has been sliding apart in separate directions (I know that is a non-"technical" way of putting it but... )! It's been interesting to "visually" see this happen compared to the almost "perfect" Dorian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 The Northern half of the circulation is now nearly completely void of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Just based on its appearance, it looked as if the upper and lower level portions of it were not aligned (stacked) nor moving at the same speed so it's like it was literally sliced in half and has been sliding apart in separate directions (I know that is a non-"technical" way of putting it but... )! It's been interesting to "visually" see this happen compared to the almost "perfect" Dorian. Actually hoping this is the case honestly. It's the most exciting thing left from a weather enthusiasts perspective with this system since it will most certainly re-curve if the current track continues. If one of the centers can make it into the Caribbean it would be quite a game changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Officially issuing a "Naked Swirl Watch" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 It's still so incredibly fascinating and humbling how 20-30kts of shear can essentially bring a category two hurricane to its knees in a matter of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Actually hoping this is the case honestly. It's the most exciting thing left from a weather enthusiasts perspective with this system since it will most certainly re-curve if the current track continues. If one of the centers can make it into the Caribbean it would be quite a game changer. Well what it looks like is that the lower level has the circulation but the upper part is nothing but a big puff of clouds not really contributing much and that it has been "ejecting". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2019 Author Share Posted September 20, 2019 Still a cane at 11 am BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 ...JERRY WEAKER BUT HEAVY RAINS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 60.3W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF BARBUDA ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2019 Author Share Posted September 20, 2019 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Jerry is weakening quickly, and radar images from NOAA show no sign of the eyewall reported on the last mission. Maximum flight-level winds on the mission were about 78 kt, with SFMR values near 70 kt, and the central pressure has risen about 10 mb overnight. These observations also agree with the latest satellite imagery that shows a less organized cyclone, with the center on the far northwestern edge of a distorted central dense overcast. A blend of all these data gives an initial wind speed estimate of 75 kt. Jerry is moving about the same as before, west-northwestward at 15 kt. The hurricane should gradually bend to the right and slow down during the next few days while the cyclone is steered around the western periphery of a weakening subtropical ridge. The guidance is tightly packed on the forecast through Monday, and little change was made to the previous NHC prediction. At longer range, a mid-latitude trough interaction should turn the hurricane northward and northeastward, but the models are really struggling on how quickly this occurs. While yesterday much of the guidance had Jerry accelerating ahead of the trough, today's models have slowed everything down as the trough looks like it could weaken before fully recurving the cyclone. The new track forecast is considerably slower than the last one beyond 72 hours, about as much as continuity allows, and later forecasts could slow Jerry down even more. Northwesterly shear is forecast to persist near Jerry for the next day or two, and some weakening is expected. The intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, and could be a bit too high in the short term given recent trends. In a few days, the aforementioned trough interaction is anticipated, but it is next to impossible to know at this lead time whether the trough will weaken or strengthen the cyclone, so no forecast change is made. It is a little tempting to raise the intensity by the end, given the recent weaker mid-latitude trough in the models, but there's just too much track uncertainty to mess with the intensity forecast at this time. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 18.8N 60.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 19.6N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 20.9N 64.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 22.3N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 23.6N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 26.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 29.0N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2019 Author Share Posted September 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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