Windspeed Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190240 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Jerry is gradually becoming better organized, with a small circular CDO and some banding features over its northwestern quadrant. Although the storm has some modest upper-level outflow, there is evidence of west-northwesterly winds undercutting the system just below the outflow layer. An upper-level cyclone is located a few hundred miles to the northwest of Jerry, as confirmed by synoptic surveillance observations taken recently by the NOAA G-IV jet. However, the global models suggest that this feature should remain far enough to the north of the tropical cyclone so that its shearing influence will be minimal in the short term. The current intensity estimate is 55 kt based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Since the environment is likely to be modestly conducive during the next day or so, strengthening is predicted for the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the dynamical guidance shows some increase in shear, which should result in a leveling off of Jerry's intensity. Later in the forecast period, the global models predict a significant increase in shear, so some weakening is likely. The official intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus. The storm remains on track with the motion continuing around 290/13 kt. There are no important changes to the track forecast from the previous advisory. Jerry should move along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. In 3-5 days, the tropical cyclone is likely to turn northwest, north-northwest, and eventually north following a weakness in the ridge near 70-75W longitude. The official track forecast is close to the latest corrected multi-model consensus guidance. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm- force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.4N 51.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 19.7N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 22.4N 67.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 25.7N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 A lot of Jerry's future stems from interaction with a mid latitude trof which as was said in the 5pm discussion can be very hard to forecast this far out. While Jerry's not going to be in perfect conditions beyond 24 hours, as has been alluded to, this has a chance to be another sneaker. Looking at the current CIMMS layer maps that's just some weird stuff going on for this time of year IMO.... http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 A lot of Jerry's future stems from interaction with a mid latitude trof which as was said in the 5pm discussion can be very hard to forecast this far out. While Jerry's not going to be in perfect conditions beyond 24 hours, as has been alluded to, this has a chance to be another sneaker. Looking at the current CIMMS layer maps that's just some weird stuff going on for this time of year IMO.... http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=Weird is the norm for this season... Case in point:BarrySent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 All of the sat info and model info we get is basically in 2 dimensions through levels to interpret. Especially with the models we know they are resolving in 3 dimensions but the info presented at least to us, is in 2 dimensions via layers. There maybe something out there that can help us armchair guys visualize the model output in 3 dimensions but I haven't seen it. Kinda like GRlevelx? Storm specific I like the AMSU cross sections but something like that that you could "fly" through the model output. Hey look at my avatar, it's TS Jerry, I'm gonna reach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 2 am & 5 am updates (steadily strengthening and expected to be a hurricane today, with the 5 am showing it just 5 mph short) - Quote 042 WTNT35 KNHC 190548 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...JERRY LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 52.5W ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES Quote 941 WTNT35 KNHC 190850 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...JERRY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 53.2W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 Yikes! If anything like the GFS verifies, you'd have Bermuda having been swiped from the north by Humberto and then get swiped from the south by Jerry (and even this far out, it is too close for comfort if the track doesn't do a major shift, although it looks to be a much weaker system than Humberto from this run ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 Some fascinating stuff going on here - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 8 am update (holding steady) - Quote 240 WTNT35 KNHC 191155 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS ON THE WAY TO JERRY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 53.9W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 This poor storm... It's like it's spinning around itself trying to find a direction to settle on to face (yes I know that was non-technical )... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: This poor storm... It's like it's spinning around itself trying to find a direction to settle on to face (yes I know that was non-technical )... Notice the uptick at the end? 62kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Notice the uptick at the end? 62kts But it's been moon-walking across the Atlantic! (although I agree that it did start moving in the direction that it was pointed - towards the NW - at the end of the sequence ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: But it's been moon-walking across the Atlantic! (although I agree that it did start moving in the direction that it was pointed - towards the NW - at the end of the sequence ) Yet another fish storm then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 Insanely dry air near the Northern Leeward Islands... Yet we all saw Dorian hold up under even drier conditions as a weaker tropical storm Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 Levi has been monitoring the recon and tweeted this (I was looking at it too and it seems trying to find an "eye" in that is like trying to find one in the foam swirling down a bathtub drain ) - Meanwhile dropsonde 5 in the eye came up with a 989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 Got to be a cane...Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 Somebody update the forum header: ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY IS A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 54.4W ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 19, 2019 Author Share Posted September 19, 2019 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Satellite images indicate that the center of Jerry is on the northwestern side of the central dense overcast near a very deep convective burst. An Air Force recon plane just flew through the center and found a central pressure of 988 mb and SFMR values near 65 kt. These data support making Jerry the 4th hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season with initial wind speed of 65 kt. Jerry has the potential to further strengthen today, but an increase in northwesterly shear related to an upper-level ridge is anticipated overnight. This change in shear will likely arrest the development of Jerry and start a slow weakening trend sometime tomorrow. In 3 or 4 days, Jerry could enter a more conducive environment for strengthening, but there is a pretty large spread in the shear forecast near the cyclone at this time, related to the positioning of Jerry relative to the ridge. Since the environmental uncertainty at long range is so high, little change has been made to the previous forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/14 kt. The track forecast has remained rather consistent during the past several cycles, taking Jerry just north of the Leeward Islands during the first couple of days due to seemingly reliable steering flow from the subtropical ridge to the north. The track is a little trickier beyond that time due to some dependence on the strength of Jerry, with a stronger system likely moving a bit longer toward the west-northwest, similar to the latest ECMWF/HWRF forecast. Regardless, the cyclone should eventually turn northward and northeastward by day 5 due to a substantial break in the subtropical ridge. The track forecast puts slightly greater weight on those stronger solutions, and the official track forecast is a little left of the various consensus aids and not too far from the last NHC prediction. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to pass north of northern Leeward Islands, tropical-storm-force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.8N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.5N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 20.7N 64.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 23.5N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 26.5N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 30.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 Jerry is ok with me all day any day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 Jerry still intensifying... Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Jerry still intensifying... Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk The last 2 eye drops (#10 & #11) were 987s so I expect it is definitely intensifying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 982.6 extrapolated that pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 982.6 extrapolated that pass Dropsonde 15! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Dropsonde 15! 4mb drop in under 40 minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 4mb drop in under 40 minutes... It stopped moon-walking to the west and started "facing forward". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 AF300 Mission 1 finished NOAA2 Training Mission for Low Level Recon En Route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 191753 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...JERRY GETTING STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 55.2W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 34 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: AF300 Mission 1 finished NOAA2 Training Mission for Low Level Recon En Route NOAA9 is headed to Jerry right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: NOAA9 is headed to Jerry right now. Good, NOAA9 for Upper Level, NOAA2 for lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 What happened to NOAA2? It hasnt reported in awhile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 19, 2019 Author Share Posted September 19, 2019 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...JERRY STILL STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 55.8W ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbuda * Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. Satellite and Air Force Hurricane Hunter data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so before weakening is anticipated by this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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