Post Tropical Storm Jerry... exiting stage right and about to dissipate

[yoda]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...JERRY STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 49.2W
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.  Watches could be issued this afternoon or
evening.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 49.2 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will be near
the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane by late
Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday and
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Satellite images indicate that Jerry continues to become better
organized, with a large curved band wrapping around the center.
While microwave data does not show an inner core yet, the overall
satellite presentation has improved during the past several hours.
The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which closely matches
almost all of the available Dvorak estimates and a just-arrived
ASCAT-C scatterometer pass.

Further intensification of Jerry is expected during the next day or
two as the cyclone moves over very warm waters within light shear.
While this type of environment could support even more
strengthening than forecast, there is some substantial dry air
around the cyclone, which is forecast to limit the intensification
rates for now.  This forecast leans heavier on the regional
hurricane models HWRF, HMON and COAMPS-TC, which all show a weaker
cyclone than the statistical/dynamical LGEM and SHIPS models.
Most of the guidance shows increasing shear in a couple of days, and
the shear could become somewhat strong by next week.  While little
change in strength is indicated beyond Friday, this usually doesn't
happen in reality, and further changes will be necessary as the
environmental factors become more clear.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/12
kt.  The subtropical ridge to the north should steer Jerry at a
faster forward speed for the next couple of days.  Afterward, a
northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a weakness in
the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto, is expected. The
NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory
and lies on the left side of the guidance suite, nearest the ECMWF
model and the corrected-consensus forecasts.


Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it moves
near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is too soon to
determine the direct impacts to the islands. Interests there should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the
progress of this system.  Watches could be issued for a portion of
this area this afternoon or evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 14.6N  49.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 15.3N  51.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 16.3N  53.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 17.3N  56.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 18.4N  59.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 20.5N  65.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 23.3N  69.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 26.5N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[yoda]

[Hurricane Agnes]

Gotta keep watching that path!

[Floydbuster]

They don't seem that enthusiastic about Jerry, mostly because the models don't seem to be either.

[Hurricane Agnes]

7 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

They don't seem that enthusiastic about Jerry, mostly because the models don't seem to be either.

There's a Hurricane Hunter that flew over to it and is surveying the area around the north and west perimeter.  JPSSs tweeted this not long ago (with mention that NHC expects it to become a hurricane by Thursday/Friday) -

 

[NJwx85]

45 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

They don't seem that enthusiastic about Jerry, mostly because the models don't seem to be either.

Shear is going to be an issue once the storm passes Hispaniola in a few days. Currently 30-50kts in most of the Western Bahamas and increasing due to Humberto and associated trough interaction. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, I know you weren’t saying that. I got a little heated before my morning tea lol. It’s all good. I too would like something I didn’t have to chase.

oh ok cool.   Ya, it'd be interesting and a lil exciting if one of these ventured up our way for a change.  

[Hoosier]

28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

oh ok cool.   Ya, it'd be interesting and a lil exciting if one of these ventured up our way for a change.  

Your posts are a bit like somebody in Macon, GA lamenting the lack of snow in their area.  It's like what do you expect?

No offense to the fine people of Macon and any posters who may be from there.

[rclab]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Your posts are a bit like somebody in Macon, GA lamenting the lack of snow in their area.  It's like what do you expect?

No offense to the fine people of Macon and any posters who may be from there.

Thinking of the heat those good folks have had this warm season, who could begrudge them that fantasy. As always ....

[MJO812]

12z cmc recurves before it comes near the US.

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Your posts are a bit like somebody in Macon, GA lamenting the lack of snow in their area.  It's like what do you expect?

No offense to the fine people of Macon and any posters who may be from there.

I don't expect a hurricane/tropical system regularly up this way at all.   Just commenting that it would be a welcomed change to get one to come up this way....especially with all the action currently taking place.  We do get hurricanes here....just not that often.  We're due for one though. 

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

12z cmc recurves before it comes near the US.

Gfs is similiar

[Orangeburgwx]

Once Jerry gets north of PR the enviroment becomes way more favorable... Also, that tiny pocket of 120kt shear ahead of Humberto is the strongest I have ever seen

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

[Windspeed]

I have sneaking suspicion that the LLC has relocated south under the persistent vigorous MLC. An intense hot tower just went rotating up at that precise location. Also... BOOOOM!!! That's going to cause a pressure drop, Jerry.

 

 

 

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

27 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I have sneaking suspicion that the LLC has relocated south under the persistent vigorous MLC. An intense hot tower just went rotating up at that precise location. Also... BOOOOM!!! That's going to cause a pressure drop, Jerry.

 

 

 

 

It is kinda cool to see that on vis...

[Windspeed]

Recent MW pass prior to the most recent convective burst. Nice curved band wrapped around the north side of the MLC, also suggestive of LLC relocation in progress. Not as assured as recon data versus remote sensing, but it will do for now.

[Windspeed]

Again, that MW pass is highly suggestive of an aligning vortex. If that is the case, that banding may very well be core formation in progress as well. Jerry may be about to undergo stronger intensification. I won't say rapid, but the jog south will have got it further away from the NE shear axis, which could allow it to organize more quickly. I certainly would not rule out RI though.

[Orangeburgwx]

Again, that MW pass is highly suggestive of an aligning vortex. If that is the case, that banding may very well be core formation in progress as well. Jerry may be about to undergo stronger intensification. I won't say rapid, but the jog south will have got it further away from the NE shear axis, which could allow it to organize more quickly. I certainly would not rule out RI though.
 
 

Big impact downstream as well... Bigger chance of it coming closer to the East Coast

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

[Windspeed]

Big impact downstream as well... Bigger chance of it coming closer to the East Coast

 

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

That's so far out there in advance, anything is possible. More concerned about the Northern Lesser Antilles for now because if we have a more intense and deeper vortex, it will be more susceptible to influence by the deeper 400 mb steering flow. Again, the more intense Jerry becomes in the short term, the more shift south in track. A bit opposite from typical steering (i.e. stronger more northerly) but it's due to positioning of the upper ridge.

[Windspeed]

 

[WinterWolf]

Looking quite Healthy in that sat shot....nice spiraling starting to show up.  He's growing.

[Solak]

 

[yoda]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 50.5W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Maarten.

Meteo-France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin and
St. Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.  Further watches could be issued this evening
or overnight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 50.5 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday,
with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Jerry continues to strengthen this afternoon, as indicated by 1-min
GOES-16 satellite imagery, with a large burst of convection close
to the center.  In addition, microwave data show that the central
structure has improved, displaying a tightly wrapped band near the
center.  The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, on the conservative
side of the intensity estimates.

The storm should become a hurricane on Thursday while it is moving
over very warm waters with light shear.  Dropsondes from the NOAA
G-IV aircraft this afternoon show that Jerry is surrounded by some
very dry air in the lower to mid-levels, and this is likely the main
limiting factor on the cyclone's strengthening rate in the near
term.  By 48 hours, almost all of the models show an increase in
northwesterly shear due to flow from an upper-level ridge, which
seems likely to cause some weakening.  At long range, Jerry is
likely to interact with a mid-latitude trough, which is notoriously
difficult to forecast.  Only small changes were made to the previous
wind speed prediction, and this advisory is close to a blend of the
various consensus aids.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt.
There's no substantial change to the track forecast on this
package, with a subtropical ridge providing a well-defined steering
current.  This ridge should move Jerry along at a faster forward
speed in about the same direction for the next couple of days,
taking the center close to but north of the northern Leeward
Islands.  Afterward, a northwest to northward turn, influenced by a
weakness in the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto and a
new mid-latitude shortwave, is anticipated. The new forecast is very
close to the previous one and a blend of the latest ECMWF ensemble
mean and the corrected-consensus HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to
the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is
currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm-
force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical
storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 15.0N  50.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 15.7N  52.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 16.7N  55.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 17.8N  58.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 19.1N  61.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 21.5N  66.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 25.2N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 28.5N  69.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[yoda]

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, yoda said:

So they think it will be a weak storm. 

I think they may be wrong here. It's looking very healthy right now.

[Orangeburgwx]

T3.5 currently on last pass...

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

[Hurricane Agnes]

8 pm update (pressure slowly dropping as it gets itself together but it is moving at a good clip) -

Quote

000
WTNT35 KNHC 182342
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
800 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 51.2W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

 

[Jackstraw]

Latest SHIPS output 

   * ATLANTIC     2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  JERRY       AL102019  09/18/19  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    50    57    62    66    70    73    73    72    69    67    65    65    66
V (KT) LAND       50    57    62    66    70    73    73    72    69    67    65    65    66
V (KT) LGEM       50    57    63    68    72    79    80    79    78    78    80    81    77
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         4     9    15    20    18    20    21    20    13    19    21    32    26
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2    -7    -4    -3     0     1     1     0     1    -1     0     1    -1
SHEAR DIR        295   284   288   305   319   333   342   340   347   297   286   270   273
SST (C)         28.5  28.5  28.6  28.5  28.8  29.0  29.3  29.4  29.6  29.6  29.5  29.2  29.1
POT. INT. (KT)   145   145   147   145   150   154   159   160   163   162   160   154   152
ADJ. POT. INT.   144   144   146   144   148   152   156   154   154   150   144   136   131
200 MB T (C)   -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C)   0.3   0.4   0.6   0.6   0.5   0.4   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.5   0.7
TH_E DEV (C)       9    10    11    10    11    11    11     9     8     7     7     7     6
700-500 MB RH     48    45    44    45    49    55    58    67    73    76    69    57    52
MODEL VTX (KT)    15    14    13    14    15    14    13    12    10    10    11    13    15
850 MB ENV VOR    35    32    18    11     9     6     7    15    14    39    41    27    42
200 MB DIV        20    29   -10     2    19    31    19    12    31    36    66    36    45
700-850 TADV      -2    -1     1     1     0     1     6    -2     4     5     7    11    13
LAND (KM)       1106  1110  1074   981   907   805   468   246   278   343   487   657   823
LAT (DEG N)     14.8  15.3  15.8  16.3  16.8  17.8  18.9  20.0  21.0  22.5  24.1  25.7  27.2
LONG(DEG W)     49.9  51.2  52.5  53.9  55.3  58.1  61.3  64.2  66.6  68.5  69.9  70.6  70.6
STM SPEED (KT)    13    13    14    14    14    15    15    14    12    11     9     8     7
HEAT CONTENT      30    26    30    37    47    39    58    71    80    60    77    48    39

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13      CX,CY: -11/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  35            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  520  (MEAN=620)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   9.8 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR):           32.5

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  11.  12.  12.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   3.   5.   7.  11.  14.  17.  18.  20.  21.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -7.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  PERSISTENCE            3.   4.   4.   4.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6. -10. -11. -12.  -9.  -7.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  RI POTENTIAL           1.   2.   4.   6.   9.   8.   6.   3.   1.  -2.  -4.  -5.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           7.  12.  16.  20.  23.  23.  22.  19.  17.  15.  15.  16.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   50. LAT, LON:   14.8    49.9

      ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY      09/18/19  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :   15.0    -49.5  to   33.0        0.78          14.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT)       :   13.2     30.1  to    2.3        0.61           4.2
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :   34.0      0.0  to  151.8        0.22           1.3
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :    9.8     36.6  to    2.8        0.79           5.9
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :   50.0     22.5  to  137.5        0.74           2.9
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :   -0.5      2.9  to   -2.9        0.59           3.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :   95.2     27.5  to  139.6        0.60           2.9
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :   12.0    -29.7  to  185.9        0.19           0.4
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :   23.9    100.0  to    0.0        0.76           0.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :  402.0    895.4  to  -55.0        0.52           0.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  22% is   4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  49% is   4.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  35% is   5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  22% is   5.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  14% is   6.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  26% is   5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  30% is   6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  20% is   3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    21.5%   48.8%   34.8%   22.4%   14.4%   26.1%   30.0%   20.0%
    Logistic:    35.8%   49.1%   58.3%   44.3%   10.5%   15.7%    5.3%    3.5%
    Bayesian:    19.2%   37.3%   38.9%    3.4%    3.2%   11.5%   12.3%    0.2%
   Consensus:    25.5%   45.0%   44.0%   23.4%    9.4%   17.8%   15.9%    7.9%
       DTOPS:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY      09/18/19  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY      09/18/2019  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       4(  4)       4(  8)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       1(  1)       4(  5)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  50    57    62    66    70    73    73    72    69    67    65    65    66
 18HR AGO           50    49    54    58    62    65    65    64    61    59    57    57    58
 12HR AGO           50    47    46    50    54    57    57    56    53    51    49    49    50
  6HR AGO           50    44    41    40    44    47    47    46    43    41    39    39    40
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT