Post Tropical Storm Jerry... exiting stage right and about to dissipate

[Orangeburgwx]

26 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

It's TS Jerry now and has it's little spin going!

 

Question: what is the deal with that feeder front in the NE quadrant? Inflow channel exposed by shear?

 

Also of note: going by the IR loop on Tropical Tidbits, the center looks to be spinning along due west the last few hours along 14N

[Windspeed]

Some thoughts on Jerry from Levi -     

 

There is a 400mb ridge imparting NE flow into TS Jerry by Humberto's presence right now. This is what Levi is focusing on and though it's not resulting in horrible mid-level shear, it may be enough to keep any RI phase in check, limiting Jerry to slow strengthening in the coming days. On the other hand, if Jerry's position versus said ridge offsets the shear somewhat, and Jerry becomes a strong hurricane much faster, the deep layer steering flow would potentially get the core into the Northern Lesser Antilles. So that does need to be watched. 

 

Edit: Note the EPS members representing a strong hurricane are further south. That's due to that upper mid-level influence if Jerry was to be a more intense and deeper vortex it would feel that somewhat. But it's more likely Jerry is much slower with development and any deep steering layer would not be as influential.

 

 

 

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Updated NHC track has Jerry going OTS.

I was looking at the 0z Euro & GFS earlier this morning and they both had it following Humberto OTS.  6z GFS is holding with the OTS solution.

[Hurricane Agnes]

3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Question: what is the deal with that feeder front in the NE quadrant? Inflow channel exposed by shear?

 

Also of note: going by the IR loop on Tropical Tidbits, the center looks to be spinning along due west the last few hours along 14N

That's been the suggestion - shear. Will have to see if the ridge moves away enough to minimize that.  Looks like it's having a bad hair day to boot!  Seeing the high top clouds popping all over that NE quadrant.

[Orangeburgwx]

I was looking at the 0z Euro & GFS earlier this morning and they both had it following Humberto OTS.  6z GFS is holding with the OTS solution.

EPS left everything in play


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[Windspeed]

EPS left everything in play

See my post above as to why. I've since edited.

[Hurricane Agnes]

5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

EPS left everything in play


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That makes no sense given Humberto is churning up the water along those tracks (at least the more northern OTS ones).  At least the GFS (verbatim) has it roll around on a path south of Humberto.

[WinterWolf]

East coast looks to come away unscathed yet again....Fish storms-all of em.   Big time Boring.

 

Like Ray said on the previous page to my comment...it's like a 1995 redo, but so far not as active as that year was(that year had every single cirrus cloud turn into a hurricane, but they were all fish storms).   

 

Kind of like watching the big, fun party from  afar....but you're not invited to any of them, and can't participate in any of the excitement.   Thus very forgettable for the mainland U.S.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

East coast looks to come away unscathed yet again....Fish storms-all of em.   Big time Boring.

 

Like Ray said on the previous page to my comment...it's like a 1995 redo, but so far not as active as that year was(that year had every single cirrus cloud turn into a hurricane, but they were all fish storms).   

 

Kind of like watching the big, fun party from  afar....but you're not invited to any of them, and can't participate in any of the excitement.   Thus very forgettable for the mainland U.S.

It is very boring but the season is still young especially when the basin is  starting to get very active. 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

EPS left everything in play


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Majority still stay offshore thanks to a weakness from Humberto. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It is very boring but the season is still young especially when the basin is  starting to get very active. 

Ya there will be some more activity, but it seems the writing is on the wall this year....OTS/Recurve is the flavor of the season so far, and looks to stay that way.   We watch from a distance, bored and excluded from the activity.  

[Windspeed]

It is very boring but the season is still young especially when the basin is  starting to get very active. 

We just had one of the most powerful hurricanes on record obliterate the N. Bahamas. We also have numerous systems to track and more coming. Hardly seems boring to me but if by what you mean are major hurricane impacts on the CONUS, then by all means, please remain bored.

[Orangeburgwx]

26 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

That makes no sense given Humberto is churning up the water along those tracks (at least the more northern OTS ones).  At least the GFS (verbatim) has it roll around on a path south of Humberto.

 

42 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

There is a 400mb ridge imparting NE flow into TS Jerry by Humberto's presence right now. This is what Levi is focusing on and though it's not resulting in horrible mid-level shear, it may be enough to keep any RI phase in check, limiting Jerry to slow strengthening in the coming days. On the other hand, if Jerry's position versus said ridge offsets the shear somewhat, and Jerry becomes a strong hurricane much faster, the deep layer steering flow would potentially get the core into the Northern Lesser Antilles. So that does need to be watched. 

 

Edit: Note the EPS members representing a strong hurricane are further south. That's due to that upper mid-level influence if Jerry was to be a more intense and deeper vortex it would feel that somewhat. But it's more likely Jerry is much slower with development and any deep steering layer would not be as influential.

 

 

 

 

^this is why Agnes

[Hurricane Agnes]

NOAA9 is on its way to Jerry so it will be interesting what that finds...

[Hurricane Agnes]

3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

 

^this is why Agnes

Humberto is booking along at 16 mph at last update so am wondering how long before that feature will have no longer have a major impact.

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

24 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It is very boring but the season is still young especially when the basin is  starting to get very active. 

We just had one of the most powerful hurricanes on record obliterate the N. Bahamas. We also have numerous systems to track and more coming. Hardly seems boring to me but if by what you mean are major hurricane impacts on the CONUS, then by all means, please remain bored.

I knew somebody would come out with a post like this.  

Watching and tracking something that doesn't get into your neighborhood, is only fun for so long.  Dorian was certainly a monster and phenomenon that is very rare.  And it was exciting watching its every move as it approached the Bahama's and the southeast.  But it was largely a miss for the U.S.   

 

Nobody is saying it isn't active, and if you like watching hurricanes and storms out over the ocean, that look to remain there, then this is your year.  For those of us who would like to have some type of storm threaten our area, so far it's been Boring for sure, and looks to stay that way.   Everybody likes different things about the weather...some of us like to be involved in it(have it hit our areas) from time to time.

[NJwx85]

The HWRF was the only guidance that significantly strengthened Jerry yesterday, which correlating with Levi's post makes sense for the Southerly track. Both the GFS and the Euro keep the system very weak and it looks like the 06z HWRF has short term strengthening followed by weakening. 

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

NOAA Satellites has a good look at Jerry from above -

 

[rowjimmy73]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Reminds me of a less active 1995.

if we can get a winter like 1995 out of it ill be happy. glad to see im not theonly one to see this, mentioned it to my wife last week

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I knew somebody would come out with a post like this.  

Watching and tracking something that doesn't get into your neighborhood, is only fun for so long.  Dorian was certainly a monster and phenomenon that is very rare.  And it was exciting watching its every move as it approached the Bahama's and the southeast.  But it was largely a miss for the U.S.   

 

Nobody is saying it isn't active, and if you like watching hurricanes and storms out over the ocean, that look to remain there, then this is your year.  For those of us who would like to have some type of storm threaten our area, so far it's been Boring for sure, and looks to stay that way.   Everybody likes different things about the weather...some of us like to be involved in it(have it hit our areas) from time to time.

having lived through michaels remains in the va piedmont ill take quiet anytime. still recovering down here and it wasnt even a named storm anymore 

 

[Orangeburgwx]

 

Thing to note: 6z ECMWF rimriding the very bottom edge (or just south of) the 5am NHC cone

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, rowjimmy73 said:

if we can get a winter like 1995 out of it ill be happy. glad to see im not theonly one to see this, mentioned it to my wife last week

having lived through michaels remains in the va piedmont ill take quiet anytime. still recovering down here and it wasnt even a named storm anymore 

 

I hear ya...nobody is wishing for devastation/total destruction.  But some heavy rain and some gusty winds up here from a tropical storm/remains of a hurricane would be a decent change of pace.  

I know the old saying....Be Careful what you wish for, but some type of storm would be cool for SNE this tropical season. 

 

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

As an interesting note, the SSTs are still toasty even after the passage of both Dorian and Humberto (although I know this is slowly ramping down from the peak period for ocean temps)!

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya there will be some more activity, but it seems the writing is on the wall this year....OTS/Recurve is the flavor of the season so far, and looks to stay that way.   We watch from a distance, bored and excluded from the activity.  

If recurve means a snowy winter then by all means let it continue lol

[rowjimmy73]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I hear ya...nobody is wishing for devastation/total destruction.  But some heavy rain and some gusty winds up here from a tropical storm/remains of a hurricane would be a decent change of pace.  

I know the old saying....Be Careful what you wish for, but some type of storm would be cool for SNE this tropical season. 

 

 

dont get me wrong, i love it as much as the next weenie. im just agreeing with the bottom statement...i wished for it all my life having lived in nj and been in remnants, missed sandy cause i lived in fl.Michael last year was insane, we had almost 9 inches of rain here and the river rose like 23 ft in 9 minutes or something.  we went thru what looked like the banded remains of the eye and it wa crazy 

 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Snow88 said:

If recurve means a snowy winter then by all means let it continue lol

I have heard it both ways.  There has been arguments excessive storms re-curving in the Atlantic can lead to mild and cold winters via heat transfer.  I'm not sure there is any significant connection either way.

[Windspeed]

This is actually the type of pattern to get a Mid-Atlantic impact. Though most systems may recurve, not every storm will. Still, getting multiple hurricanes to track north of the Antilles near and north of the Bahamas versus over-amped ridging and Caribbean runners, you increase the chance of enough ridging in place with one of these storms to make impacts on the eastern seaboard. Even Dorian was still an impact for the coastal Carolinas, even if it was mostly just a hit on the barriers.

 

You have to look at the overall pattern in place. This pattern actually increases the odds of interaction versus a pattern that removes you entirely. 2004 and 2005 are prime examples. Crazy active years with many devestating impacts for everyone outside the Mid-Atlantic, but because of the pattern in place those years, everything went south through Florida, the Gulf or smashed the Caribbean. The Mid-Atlantic and New England were relegated to chirping crickets.

 

 

[CheeselandSkies]

6 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

As an interesting note, the SSTs are still toasty even after the passage of both Dorian and Humberto (although I know this is slowly ramping down from the peak period for ocean temps)!

That little green hole near/north of the Abacos and Grand Bahama...

Still, presumably quite a bit smaller than it was 10 days ago.

[NJwx85]

11 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

As an interesting note, the SSTs are still toasty even after the passage of both Dorian and Humberto (although I know this is slowly ramping down from the peak period for ocean temps)!

Still lots of basically untouched rocket fuel in the Caribbean. 

[WinterWolf]

30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Two of the three hurricanes this season (Barry lol) have made landfall in the US. We’ve had 8 named storms, two of them majors, in less than a month after one of the quietest starts on record.

I’m pretty sure that’s objectively active. Not for New England, but for a lot of the SE US who’ve had to spend money and take action to prepare my guess is that they have a different perspective.

As Windspeed said, the pattern isn’t wholly unfavorable for US impacts, but just like winter, you don’t shovel potential. 

I said, nobody is saying it isn't active.  It's certainly active no doubt of late.  Just boring up this way....so far.

[Floydbuster]