Hurricane Agnes Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 To me, this illustrates the problems that Jerry has been facing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 Levi's tweet about the sheer (and it is literally coming from all directions at different levels of the atmosphere to boot)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 Jerry's a naked swirl now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 A “Naked Swirl Warning” has now been issued. RIP Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: A “Naked Swirl Warning” has now been issued. RIP Jerry. Watch it find a way to slam the CONUS posthumously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 5 pm update (fan dancer Jerry has weakened further although still a higher-end TS... but the idea of any further strengthening has basically been tossed away with its feathers, although it's still on track to hit Bermuda up for some dollar bills) - Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 212049 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 ...DISORGANIZED JERRY HEADING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 65.8W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF BERMUDA ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 11pm update & ETA 5 am update (no real changes other than continued weakening and a track that appears to now be mirroring Humberto, swiping Bermuda from the north) - Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220237 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 ...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 66.3W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220900 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...JERRY TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 66.9W ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 Jerry's got a tail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 AF300 managed to find an eye in Jerry and he got some of his mojo back with a 999 mb - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 11 am update gave Jerry even more mojo - Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 221442 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...JERRY CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 66.6W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 11 am update gave Jerry even more mojo - 000WTNT35 KNHC 221442TCPAT5BULLETINTropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 21NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1020191100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019...JERRY CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...25.7N 66.6WABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF BERMUDAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES 5am: NNW 330 degress at 12 mph11am: NNW 340 degress at 10 mphSent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 5am: NNW 330 degress at 12 mph 11am: NNW 340 degress at 10 mph Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Thank you! Amwx was giving an error uploading it so I left it and it finally did go (as did yours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 Thank you! Amwx was giving an error uploading it so I left it and it finally did go (as did yours). Since the 12z suites have not run yet... 6z raises some eyebrows on the GEFS, and it makes sense because as Jerry slows down, ridge will build over both him and Karen.Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 NOAA2 found an eye! 996 for dropsonde 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 5 pm (no wind speed changes but the pressure has been slowly but steadily dropping) - Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 222036 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...JERRY SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 66.9W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 2 am update (Jerry has been steadily slowling) - Quote ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...JERRY HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 67.2W ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES Quote 069 WTNT35 KNHC 230530 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...JERRY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 67.5W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 5 am (continues to follow the Humberto path, except Jerry is much further east when doing so) - Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 230842 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...JERRY CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 67.7W ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 8 am update (Jerry continues to deepen its core) - Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 231151 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 24A NWS Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...JERRY SLOWS AS IT CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 67.7W ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 8 am update (Jerry continues to deepen its core) - 000WTNT35 KNHC 231151TCPAT5BULLETINTropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 24A NWS Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019800 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019...JERRY SLOWS AS IT CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...27.8N 67.7WABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF BERMUDAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES Slight west bobble past 2 advisories (from 340 at 2am to 335 at 5&8)Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: Slight west bobble past 2 advisories (from 340 at 2am to 335 at 5&8) Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Interesting that the earliest guidance had it go south of Bermuda and then shifted to a direct hit, and now has slowly moved to the north following Humberto's northern path. The dynamics in that part of the ocean are pretty significant to say the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Interesting that the earliest guidance had it go south of Bermuda and then shifted to a direct hit, and now has slowly moved to the north following Humberto's northern path. The dynamics in that part of the ocean are pretty significant to say the least!They are, and it also has an impact on Karen, wouldnt that bobble allow her to get further north before the turn if it continues?Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: They are, and it also has an impact on Karen, wouldnt that bobble allow her to get further north before the turn if it continues? Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk The Ukie ensembles seemed to go that route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 The Ukie ensembles seemed to go that route. I want to know why that sucker goes due southwest at the end, under normal circumstances, that would be a hit on the CarolinasSent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: I want to know why that sucker goes due southwest at the end, under normal circumstances, that would be a hit on the Carolinas Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Because that's one massive ridge. I'm also not completely buying that future Lorenzo is a lock for an early recurve. The odds and climo overwhelmingly suggest that it is, but that ridge means business. If it can somehow make it past 60W I think it gets trapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 The swirl has emerged for all to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Hmm...Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 68.0W ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 68.0 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue today. A turn to the north is expected tonight followed by a turn to the northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Strong shear associated with an upper-level trough off the southeast U.S. coast continues to affect Jerry, and the low-level center is exposed to the west-southwest of the main convective mass. Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the intensity remains near 55 kt. However, if the current sheared state persists, then a weakening trend is likely to commence soon. For now, the official forecast will only show a very slow weakening over the next few days. This prediction is somewhat higher than the intensity model consensus. It should be noted that experience has shown that tropical cyclones at subtropical latitudes tend to be more resilient to shear than those in the deep tropics. Jerry has slowed its forward speed and is now moving north- northwestward at around 6 kt. The storm will continue passing through a break in the subtropical ridge through tonight. On Tuesday, a trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast will cause Jerry to turn northward. Within a couple of days, the trough should steer the tropical cyclone northeastward at a faster forward speed. In days 3-5, Jerry should move east-northeastward to eastward while embedded in the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 28.1N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 29.2N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 30.4N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 31.8N 67.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 33.3N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 35.8N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 37.0N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 37.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2019 Author Share Posted September 23, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 11 am update (Jerry is hanging in there despite all the buffeting and sheer) - Quote 084 WTNT35 KNHC 231441 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 68.0W ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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