Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 I think Levi summed it up pretty good a couple hours ago (especially since Jerry is back down to CAT 1) - AF300 and NOAA2 are in there doing recon and NOAA3 is in route. The hunt for the eye is like trying to find a needle in a cloud stack!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Convection directly around the center has recovered somewhat. If hurricane force winds still exist, it's likely within this small blob, mostly to the East of the center. It's amazing to me that the forecast is still for this to remain a hurricane given that conditions will only be getting worse before they get better. The IR loop seems to also show that a swirl is occurring with the convection near 16N/60W. I think that could possibly be what is left of the mid-level center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Looks like crap now....down to 990mb. I think Jerry is Junk...question for Bermuda is, does he recover from this decline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Looks like crap now....down to 990mb. I think Jerry is Junk...question for Bermuda is, does he recover from this decline? AF300 recently pegged a 993 so it is flying apart! (sorry but this seemed to apply ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: AF300 recently pegged a 993 so it is flying apart! (sorry but this seemed to apply ) You have been on a freaking roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 The dropsconde on the NE side (Dropsconde 4) has me a bit perplexed...Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: The dropsconde on the NE side (Dropsconde 4) has me a bit perplexed... Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Well NOAA2 is still in there and had dropsonde 15 in the same general area and got this - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 This looks like a firehose of Sahara dust that is just forming a wall of sheer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Looks like crap now....down to 990mb. I think Jerry is Junk...question for Bermuda is, does he recover from this decline? Not going to survive to reach Bermuda. Firmly believe that the centers have decoupled with one going towards the Caribbean and the other on a general WNW trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 The 12z HWRF is on crack. No chance in the world this deepens again tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 What in the hell...Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: What in the hell... Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Has to be something wrong with the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: What in the hell... Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Am hoping that is an error (this is dropsonde #6)... But then with this moon-walking backwards, eye-missing pretend hurricane cottonball that is flying apart, anything is possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Am hoping that is an error (this is dropsonde #6)... But then with this moon-walking backwards, eye-missing pretend hurricane cottonball that is flying apart, anything is possible! Dropped one right after (#7) in the eye... Stabilized at 993 for nowSent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Watching this storm get ripped to shreds today has been far more interesting than anything else that has happened to Jerry since it was classified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: Dropped one right after (#7) in the eye... Stabilized at 993 for now Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Yeah... I was thinking maybe something had a huge paddle in there and tried to wack the dropsonde up to the 200 mb level for giggles but it didn't quite make it so... (yes I am tired and silly ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z HWRF is on crack. No chance in the world this deepens again tonight. The 12z GFS has it do that (and I think the HWRF uses that for its modeling). It's got a daunting wall of dust and a ridge to have to punch through to do that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 The 12z GFS has it do that (and I think the HWRF uses that for its modeling). It's got a daunting wall of dust and a ridge to have to punch through to do that though.I don't think Jerry is done with his tricks yet...Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 The 12z HMON has what is left of Jerry near the Bahamas in about 5 days. I would say that has a better chance of happening at this point than a hurricane nearing Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Yes I am grasping for straws, but look at the trend on the Euro for the last 24 hours. Slower with the trough, stronger with the ridge, resulting in a further South track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 2pm and surprisingly they kept the pressure but it is now barely a hurricane - Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 201754 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 ...JERRY'S RAINBANDS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 61.2W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNE OF BARBUDA ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES They have it drop down to a TS and then somehow regenerate back up to a hurricane later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Still finds that pesky trough in the end, but still worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 It doesn't seem like a big deal because the system is already too far gone at this point, but that's a shift on day 5 of over 500 miles. It's like shifting from Charleston to Miami in a single run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 28 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It doesn't seem like a big deal because the system is already too far gone at this point, but that's a shift on day 5 of over 500 miles. It's like shifting from Charleston to Miami in a single run. To me it just means that soon to be Karen (presumably) has a very high likelihood of finding a weakness in the ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 5 pm update (Jerry still trying to hold itself together) - Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 202052 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 ...JERRY STILL POSES A FLOODING RISK IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 62.0W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM N OF BARBUDA ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Finally have some kind of MW depiction of Jerry (the site hadn't updated from yesterday's data) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Finally have some kind of MW depiction of Jerry (the site hadn't updated from yesterday's data) - Looks like the last few hours have it going due west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Jerry is back from the dead...Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Holy moly those cloud tops...Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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