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Post Tropical Storm Jerry... exiting stage right and about to dissipate

yoda

By yoda,
in Tropical Headquarters

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted

Convection directly around the center has recovered somewhat. If hurricane force winds still exist, it's likely within this small blob, mostly to the East of the center. It's amazing to me that the forecast is still for this to remain a hurricane given that conditions will only be getting worse before they get better. The IR loop seems to also show that a swirl is occurring with the convection near 16N/60W. I think that could possibly be what is left of the mid-level center.

goes16_ir_10L_201909201505.jpg?1853004

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
  On 9/20/2019 at 4:04 PM, WinterWolf said:

Looks like crap now....down to 990mb.  I think Jerry is Junk...question for Bermuda is, does he recover from this decline?  

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Not going to survive to reach Bermuda. Firmly believe that the centers have decoupled with one going towards the Caribbean and the other on a general WNW trajectory.

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
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  On 9/20/2019 at 5:17 PM, Orangeburgwx said:

What in the hell...6c78d282784afb3d1e779e4366673ba3.jpg

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Am hoping that is an error (this is dropsonde #6)... But then with this moon-walking backwards, eye-missing pretend hurricane cottonball that is flying apart, anything is possible! :lmao:

recon_AF300-0510A-JERRY_dropsonde6_20190

 

recon_AF300-0510A-JERRY_dropsondes1.png

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Orangeburgwx

Orangeburgwx

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  On 9/20/2019 at 5:22 PM, Hurricane Agnes said:
Am hoping that is an error (this is dropsonde #6)... But then with this moon-walking backwards, eye-missing pretend hurricane cottonball that is flying apart, anything is possible! :lmao:
recon_AF300-0510A-JERRY_dropsonde6_20190920-1633.png&key=41befb1fbba54e33ea2047d79edd4c5604694850e78abf1e97438aa14d465293
 
recon_AF300-0510A-JERRY_dropsondes1.thumb.png.8362a3395427fb1197bb3875e7b66748.png
Dropped one right after (#7) in the eye... Stabilized at 993 for now417a0519cdfcbd7adcaff7302da4ef08.jpg

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
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  On 9/20/2019 at 5:25 PM, Orangeburgwx said:

Dropped one right after (#7) in the eye... Stabilized at 993 for now417a0519cdfcbd7adcaff7302da4ef08.jpg

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk
 

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Yeah... I was thinking maybe something had a huge paddle in there and tried to wack the dropsonde up to the 200 mb level for giggles but it didn't quite make it so... (yes I am tired and silly :D).

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

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2pm and surprisingly they kept the pressure but it is now barely a hurricane -

  Quote 
000
WTNT35 KNHC 201754
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
200 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY'S RAINBANDS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 61.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
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They have it drop down to a TS and then somehow regenerate back up to a hurricane later.

175544_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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olafminesaw

olafminesaw

Posted
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  On 9/20/2019 at 6:33 PM, NJwx85 said:

It doesn't seem like a big deal because the system is already too far gone at this point, but that's a shift on day 5 of over 500 miles. It's like shifting from Charleston to Miami in a single run.

hZV5B0q.gif

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To me it just means that soon to be Karen (presumably) has a very high likelihood of finding a weakness in the ridge

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted

5 pm update (Jerry still trying to hold itself together) -

  Quote 
000
WTNT35 KNHC 202052
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY STILL POSES A FLOODING RISK IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 62.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM N OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
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205513_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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