yoda Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Advisories will begin at 11am per NHC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2019 Author Share Posted September 17, 2019 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 44.9W ABOUT 1165 MI...1870 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 44.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it approaches the northern Leeward Island. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2019 Author Share Posted September 17, 2019 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the central Atlantic has become more persistent and better organized this morning. Data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB are 2.0 on the Dvorak scale, therefore advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in line with the satellite estimates. The depression is forecast to move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures within a favorable upper-level environment. The only negative factor for intensification appears to be some nearby dry air, but with low shear conditions expected, so steady strengthening is forecast during the next several days. The NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a tropical storm later today, and attain hurricane status within 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM statistical models. Since the depression is still in the development phase, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the depression generally west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the next few days. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward Islands in about 3 days. By late in the period, the cyclone is expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is increasing spread among the guidance. The global model ensemble means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and UKMET are along the left side. The NHC track lies close the consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest ECMWF. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 12.9N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 13.8N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 14.7N 47.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 15.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 16.3N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 18.2N 59.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 20.2N 64.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 22.5N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2019 Author Share Posted September 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Looks like the big kicker is how far north it gets before getting to the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Looks like TD10 will follow the weakness in the ridge left after Humberto. A little early to be definitive but more than likely it will happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Looks like another Bermuda threat. And another prolific swell producer for the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 24 minutes ago, Pluffmud said: Looks like TD10 will follow the weakness in the ridge left after Humberto. A little early to be definitive but more than likely it will happen. I agree. Man the east coast(except for the brush with Dorian) seems untouchable for the most part this season...how long can it last???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Caribbean cruiser on the 12z HWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 I wouldn't sleep on this system. The 12z Euro keeps the system weak, but it doesn't have it following the weakness leftover from Humberto. I think that since the retrograde has largely been taken off the table and a more progressive track has become more likely, the Bermuda ridge should have more time to build in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I wouldn't sleep on this system. The 12z Euro keeps the system weak, but it doesn't have it following the weakness leftover from Humberto. I think that since the retrograde has largely been taken off the table and a more progressive track has become more likely, the Bermuda ridge should have more time to build in. It just seems to me it would have to gain a decent amount of latitude the next 48 hours to have any shot at finding that weakness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: It just seems to me it would have to gain a decent amount of latitude the next 48 hours to have any shot at finding that weakness Did you see the 12z Euro? Sort of has the system make a loop before getting absorbed by another system coming out of the Eastern Caribbean? Also of note is the continued development of a major hurricane in the Central Atlantic (MDR). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 TD10 is getting its act together. Strong convection going up around the center. Evident banding forming. Probably looking at Jerry in short order, but this may take off rather rapidly tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 A couple tweets from Levi - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 This thing has really blown some nice convection this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’d be very surprised if this weren’t upgraded to a TS at 11. Very nice envelope of convection tonight over the center. It's trying to get some circulation going and you can see it a little in the MW! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 11 pm (no real changes yet) - Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180251 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 46.7W ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2019 Author Share Posted September 18, 2019 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’d be very surprised if this weren’t upgraded to a TS at 11. Very nice envelope of convection tonight over the center. Surprise still a TD at 11 lol... disco explains why Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 Convection associated with Tropical Depression Ten has increased and become better organized since the last advisory, and various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in the 35-40 kt range. However, just-received ASCAT-C data indicates that, despite this increase in organization, the surface winds have not yet reached 35 kt. Based on this, the cyclone remains a 30 kt depression for this advisory. The initial motion is now 285/9. The cyclone is to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge, and this feature should steer the system generally west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed during the next 3-4 days. Near the end of the forecast period, the cyclone should approach a weakness in the ridge and turn more northwestward. The track guidance is in generally good agreement with this scenario, with the GFS near the northern edge of the guidance and the HWRF remaining near the southern edge. The new forecast track lies a little to the south of the center of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model. The depression should be in an environment of light shear and over warm water for the next 24-36 h, which should allow steady strengthening during that time. The shear is forecast to increase after 36 h to the point where it may at least slow development, and this is reflected in slight changes from the previous forecast. The new intensity forecast is near the intensity consensus through 48 h, and then is above the consensus from 72-120 h. It should be noted that the forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 14.4N 48.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 15.3N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.2N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 21.5N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 24.5N 70.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 13 hours ago, WinterWolf said: I agree. Man the east coast(except for the brush with Dorian) seems untouchable for the most part this season...how long can it last???? Reminds me of a less active 1995. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 13 hours ago, WinterWolf said: I agree. Man the east coast(except for the brush with Dorian) seems untouchable for the most part this season...how long can it last???? There's not even a trough in the east either, meaning double the boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 14 hours ago, WinterWolf said: I agree. Man the east coast(except for the brush with Dorian) seems untouchable for the most part this season...how long can it last???? Until this blasted pattern breaks down... Heck, my town practially NEEDS a slow mover because we are over -17.00" for the year drought wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Jerry is here! This is gonna be one to really watch due to the track. Quote ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 ...JERRY BECOMES THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2019 SEASON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 47.7W ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 47.7 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane by the time it moves near the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STxVortex Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Ruh-Oh... Alabama, we gots a problem : [Note, FYI, below TS Jerry potential track image, black sharpie extension, has been modified, altered, is fake news. Not to be used for planning decisions, honest... /s] 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 11 hours ago, Windspeed said: TD10 is getting its act together. Strong convection going up around the center. Evident banding forming. Probably looking at Jerry in short order, but this may take off rather rapidly tomorrow. Not an El Nino storm.. wonder if it will hold, or if it's just a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Not an El Nino storm.. wonder if it will hold, or if it's just a blip. It's TS Jerry now and has it's little spin going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Some thoughts on Jerry from Levi - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Not an El Nino storm.. wonder if it will hold, or if it's just a blip. You seem puzzled. ENSO is essentially neutral but I'm not sure what it would have to do with Jerry holding or being a blip here so I'm not exactly sure how to respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Updated NHC track has Jerry going OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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