Met1985 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 34 minutes ago, natbright said: I wonder if this is going to be like January 31 when it quite literally snowed around me here in Cruso. Cruso is a strange part of Haywood. Sometimes Cruso gets snow and sometimes Cruso doesn't. I don't think they do well with upslope snow though. They do better with southern storms than anything else. But I do think yall will see some snow tomorrow night and this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 0z 3km Nam is still really impressive in the upslope areas tomorrow night. I wonder if we'll see WSW's for above 3500 going up.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 18 minutes ago, Buckethead said: 0z 3km Nam is still really impressive in the upslope areas tomorrow night. I wonder if we'll see WSW's for above 3500 going up. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk And the 0z 12K NAM looks interesting for Friday into Saturday... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Does anyone have a snowmap from April 2, 1987? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/event_details?e=117 Thank you WNC Snow from the mid to long discussion... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natbright Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 32 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said: Does anyone have a snowmap from April 2, 1987? https://www.weather.gov/jkl/198704_snowstorm This is an nws map and event summary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Just now, natbright said: https://www.weather.gov/jkl/198704_snowstorm This is an nws map and event summary Thank you natbright 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, natbright said: https://www.weather.gov/jkl/198704_snowstorm I remember talking to a few locals here in Saluda NC after the '93 event about 4/87. (I moved here in 1990) some said that '87 was worse and that out by I-26 where the hotel is someone measured 27 inches with drifts up to 8 feet. I've seen a few pics and honestly I think they might not have been too far off with the totals. Was told that I-26 was closed for 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted February 26, 2020 Author Share Posted February 26, 2020 I wouldn't be surprised if there's a couple reports of thundersnow with that initial line along the front tomorrow. NAM looks fairly convective. Only t-snow I've seen the last few years came from frontal lines falling as snow like this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natbright Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 I don’t really think I’ll get much in my neck of the woods but I hope y’all on the border get some accumulation! I have a question - what model do you think handles NW flow events the best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Latest Nam loving the northern counties with the initial banding. But it's just there to get my hopes up again ;). Let's see what happens this evening! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 This morning I learned that GSP doesnt issue WSW's when the criteria is only met above 3500'. Seems odd to me. 000 FXUS62 KGSP 261144 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 644 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020...Will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for locations above 3500 feet where now totals will be highest. Lower elevations will see snow showers, but amounts should be limited due to typical NW flow factors. Elevations above 5000 feet could even see warning level snow, but due to local agreement, we don`t issue warnings for just those elevations. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Buckethead said: This morning I learned that GSP doesnt issue WSW's when the criteria is only met above 3500'. Seems odd to me. 000 FXUS62 KGSP 261144 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 644 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020 ...Will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for locations above 3500 feet where now totals will be highest. Lower elevations will see snow showers, but amounts should be limited due to typical NW flow factors. Elevations above 5000 feet could even see warning level snow, but due to local agreement, we don`t issue warnings for just those elevations. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk My guess is probably not enough population living above 3,500 feet and would only cause confusion to the majority that live below that mark. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Good morning all....Hey I think that NWS policy only applies to 5000'+... "Elevations above 5000 feet could even see warning level snow, but due to local agreement, we don`t issue warnings for just those elevations" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Good morning all....Hey I think that NWS policy only applies to 5000'+... "Elevations above 5000 feet could even see warning level snow, but due to localagreement, we don`t issue warnings for just those elevations"That makes total sense. I just didn't pay close enough attention to the wording.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: My guess is probably not enough population living above 3,500 feet and would only cause confusion to the majority that live below that mark. That still doesn't make sense. Most people in wnc outside of Asheville work in another town. And to get to another town you usually need to travel over 3500'. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 This is interesting. Including the cities of Hartford, Cades Cove, Elkmont, and Gatlinburg 1037 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, mainly at elevations above 2500 feet, with locally higher amounts possible over the highest elevations. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph at times. * WHERE...Cocke Smoky Mountains, Blount Smoky Mountains and Sevier Smoky Mountains Counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Although the overall totals arent hugely different. The HRRR looks a lot different than the Nam in terms of intensity at the onset of the changeover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted February 26, 2020 Author Share Posted February 26, 2020 Although the overall totals arent hugely different. The HRRR looks a lot different than the Nam in terms of intensity at the onset of the changeover.It's also initializing the current precip weaker/lighter than it really is. Plenty of sun here and 55 so enough instability to get a little heavier precip going I would think. Just need temps to crash fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Look at that snow hole over Watauga on the latest HRRR. Now THAT I believe lol Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 It's also initializing the current precip weaker/lighter than it really is. Plenty of sun here and 55 so enough instability to get a little heavier precip going I would think. Just need temps to crash fast enough. I mean it does show some decent precip forming with the initial rain band, but just after that is abysmal. We shall see over the next few hours though.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted February 26, 2020 Author Share Posted February 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: I mean it does show some decent precip forming with the initial rain band, but just after that is abysmal. We shall see over the next few hours though. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Boone sounding during the heaviest precip. It'll be CLOSE with the surface crashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 12Z Euro not at all enthused with snow for the mtns tonight. I noticed the 12Z NAM also slashed totals pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 51 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 12Z Euro not at all enthused with snow for the mtns tonight. I noticed the 12Z NAM also slashed totals pretty good. Yeah totals have been going down. I just think the models dont really handle NWFS all that well or it could just be this winter is cursed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 I will say that the radar doesn't impress me currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 17 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah totals have been going down. I just think the models dont really handle NWFS all that well or it could just be this winters curse. I fully believe this winter is cursed. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 I'm afraid this event is going to continue the "moister starved frontal passage" theme. Even upstream radar to the NW looks anemic. Temps are still in the low 40's as far west as Nashville as well. I'm sure some snow will be squeezed out but but I'm not expecting the 4 inches that are progged. With all that being said, sometimes these flow snow scenarios can surprise. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Don't underestimate the power of the Force, convective NWFS. Good luck! Oh MRX probably has more real estate and population up high; hence, the warnings. Friday night may do better than progged too. They keep drying out, but I bet the ski areas get more. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Moderate rn/sn mix and 36.1/35 up here. Temperature dropped 6 degrees in the last hour. Edit: sleet now and 35. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Down to freezing on top of Mitchell. Snow accumulating pretty good at Newfound Gap, TN. Hope you guys do well. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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