2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.

[Met1985]

5 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said:

Maybe I’m stepping out of bounds but I think will do great with this event. A WSW event for all the mountains, I just know from past experiences these events usually trends better.

I like your optimism but this winter has been crap and anything can happen lol. But currently id say a 3 to 6 inch storm is not out of the question but that is all speculation at this point. Lets get through another 24 hours and see about this thing .

[AirNelson39]

Maybe Boone finally breaks a single storm total greater than 1” this season!! Not to be outdone by the folks down East though. Hoping everyone can cash in on this one though.

[SnowDawg]

1 hour ago, Sw NC weather said:

Maybe I’m stepping out of bounds but I think will do great with this event. A WSW event for all the mountains, I just know from past experiences these events usually trends better.

I'm glad I'm not the only one who feels maybe a little over confident at this point. Even down here in the far NE GA Mtns I feel really good about where we're sitting right now as potentially being in a good spot for an overlap of the upper level cold and good QPF. Most modeling has been pretty consistent of the upper level cold beating the moisture in and starting with a surface temp of 35-37. May lose a little QPF initially during wet-bulbing but shouldn't take long. 

Confidence probably gonna come back to bite me, but being just about a week removed from a major over-performer has me feeling a bit more risky right now lol. 

[FlatLander48]

5 hours ago, AirNelson39 said:

Maybe Boone finally breaks a single storm total greater than 1” this season!! Not to be outdone by the folks down East though. Hoping everyone can cash in on this one though.

My girlfriend wont be in town, so itll happen lol.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

[Met1985]

14 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

We are almost always in the best spot in the SE for snow. 

[Met1985]

Both the NAM and GFS look good for our snow chances. Today will be very telling with the models. We are off to a good start so far.

[strongwxnc]

Both the NAM and GFS look good for our snow chances. Today will be very telling with the models. We are off to a good start so far.

Yup! Should be a fun day either way.
Hopefully


.

[wncsnow]

Really thought last nights Euro would come around but it was dryer than grandmas biscuits 

[Met1985]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Really thought last nights Euro would come around but it was dryer than grandmas biscuits 

Yeah it may not be handling the wave right but it could be onto something also. But I like that the NAM and GFS are in the same camp. Remember the models didnt handle the last little snow that well except the NAM...

[wncsnow]

4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah it may not be handling the wave right but it could be onto something also. But I like that the NAM and GFS are in the same camp. Remember the models didnt handle the last little snow that well except the NAM...

True, but historically the Euro has handled the southern waves better than any model. If the nam trends away at 12z of if the Euro doesn't trend better I think it's a big sign considering we are only 48 to 60 hours out

[Buckethead]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

True, but historically the Euro has handled the southern waves better than any model. If the nam trends away at 12z of if the Euro doesn't trend better I think it's a big sign considering we are only 48 to 60 hours out

Exactly why I was waiting on today's 12z euro before I get excited.  

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

With how poorly the euro has been here lately I’m not worried about it as I would have been a few years ago. 

[Buckethead]

17 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

With how poorly the euro has been here lately I’m not worried about it as I would have been a few years ago. 

Still, it's hard to discount it.  I've gotten pumped for many a storm that every model had with the exception of the euro and ukie.  Most of those times, yall know who won.  

I am very optimistic though regardless, just wary.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Just now, Buckethead said:

Still, it's hard to discount it.  I've gotten pumped for many a storm that every model had with the exception of the euro and okie.  Most of those times, yall know who won.  

I am very optimistic though regardless, just wary.

I hear ya, and in years gone by I’d have that same feeling. Just been a tough go here for the euro the past 12 months. Could be the pattern we are in that’s affecting its performance. 

[strongwxnc]

Any actual excitement should always be tempered. This is regardless of how good (or bad) models look. One must wait till it starts to fall.

 Such as it is round these parts

Im not sure any model is king any more. 

 

[Hvward]

True, but historically the Euro has handled the southern waves better than any model. If the nam trends away at 12z of if the Euro doesn't trend better I think it's a big sign considering we are only 48 to 60 hours out

In these type of fast flows I tend to favor gridded models(NAM & GFS) over spectral(Euro) simply because they are better suited to handle the multiple back to back pieces of energy. A spectral model like the Euro divides the atmosphere up into 28 waves across the globe. Having two waves back to back like we are seeing is certainly giving the Euro trouble. It struggled with the last event where there was trailing overrunning precip. It has shown to me a tendency to struggle in these fast flows. The nam with those smaller grid points is better suited to resolve those little details, especially when several vorts are heading our way. We will see at 12z, I am pretty excited to watch model progression today to be honest.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Well speaking of the Euro, looks like it began its caving at 6Z. Snow for 40 corridor from TN through NC

[Buckethead]

2 minutes ago, Hvward said:

In these type of fast flows I tend to favor gridded models(NAM & GFS) over spectral(Euro) simply because they are better suited to handle the multiple back to back pieces of energy. A spectral model like the Euro decides the atmosphere up into 28 waves across the globe. Having two waves back to back like we are seeing is certainly giving the Euro trouble. It struggled with the last event where there was trailing overrunning precip. It has shown to me a tendency to struggle in these fast flows. The nam with those smaller grid points is better suited to resolve those little details, especially when several vorts are heading our way. We will see at 12z, I am pretty excited to watch model progression today to be honest.

I learned something new today!  Thanks for that insight, Hunter.  

[Met1985]

Yeah great discussion guys. This is why I love this group and why I said yesterday that my excitement would be tempered until 18z today. We are getting into the time frame where the short range models should really be picking this up especially the multiple waves as Ward was talking about. Obviously having the EURO on board is huge but we are seeing multiple models come in with snowy solutions for us and currently that just cannot be discounted. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here's the 6z Euro for y'all too:

[FlatLander48]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here's the 6z Euro for y'all too:

That's a considerable difference. Preferably would be nice to see the LP form a bit closer to the coast. But baby steps at this time.

[wncsnow]

32 minutes ago, Hvward said:

In these type of fast flows I tend to favor gridded models(NAM & GFS) over spectral(Euro) simply because they are better suited to handle the multiple back to back pieces of energy. A spectral model like the Euro divides the atmosphere up into 28 waves across the globe. Having two waves back to back like we are seeing is certainly giving the Euro trouble. It struggled with the last event where there was trailing overrunning precip. It has shown to me a tendency to struggle in these fast flows. The nam with those smaller grid points is better suited to resolve those little details, especially when several vorts are heading our way. We will see at 12z, I am pretty excited to watch model progression today to be honest.

interesting thank you. Just so used to mets like DT and even Robert harpring on how great the Euro is with southern stream 

[Met1985]

The 12z NAM is holding serve. Kind of starts out as a mix but quickly turns to all snow. The precipitation is much further north this run also. It really blossoms out once it gets in here.

[FlatLander48]

4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The 12z NAM is holding serve. Kind of starts out as a mix but quickly turns to all snow. The precipitation is much further north this run also. It really blossoms out once it gets in here.

Good run for all the mountains. Believe that was the best run from any model for what we want. minus the bit of mix at onset of course.

[Met1985]

Yeah this is the best run of the NAM for us. Very juiced up and nearly all snow. Also dont underestimate the upslope snow behind the system if if hits us just right. It will dump all that moisture on the favored areas behind the system. 

[wncsnow]

Hi Res NAM 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Hi Res NAM 

Wow even the 3k NAM coming on board. This is trending to a big event for mtns and foothills. 

[Met1985]

14 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Wow even the 3k NAM coming on board. This is trending to a big event for mtns and foothills. 

These overrunning type events we do very well with.  If we can get the moisture in here we will get a decent snow. Im really liking the trend of the models this morning. 

[FlatLander48]

Even though the end of the range isn't really close enough to point out storm details for us, the RGEM is another tool starting to come into play to see how far north the precip will be before it gets here. The 6z was considerably further south and flatter compared to the 12z Nam, would like to see it correct towards the NAM on this run as it's coming in.