BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hvward said: We just need the moisture. Who'da thunk it would come down to this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Hvward said: 6z NAM has the precip oriented exactly how WNC would like it at hour 84. Yeah long range NAM ya da ya da, it nailed the last shortwave. GFS looks similar with that strip of precip over NGA into WNC. This feature has been shown on almost all models at some point in time over the past 3-4 days and you have to use those little hints. Let’s see today if that strip continues to expand and last for more frames. Also 0z EPS with a nice uptick in snow totals for WNC. I hope your correct, maybe our best set-up this season and as usual its trying its best to turn in to nothing, boy threading the needle isn't the word for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 12z nam still has the strip of precip over WNC. Small details though are going to be huge with this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hvward said: 12z nam still has the strip of precip over WNC. Small details though are going to be huge with this system. With the way the rain system has trended north in the past 24 hours for tomorrow and Wednesday, this thing is right where the mtns and foothills want it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, Hvward said: 12z nam still has the strip of precip over WNC. Small details though are going to be huge with this system. Yeah nothing to worry about. Today will be some fluctuations but I fully expect the precipitation field to move north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, Hvward said: 12z nam still has the strip of precip over WNC. Small details though are going to be huge with this system. I am going to heed your own advice from yesterday: Models tend to under-do that northern periphery of moisture and its extent. We've been here and time and time again and more times than not will the precipitation field trend further north than is currently being shown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah nothing to worry about. Today will be some fluctuations but I fully expect the precipitation field to move north. Yeah it seems like these systems are always juicer when they get here let’s hope that holds true for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, Sw NC weather said: Yeah it seems like these systems are always juicer when they get here let’s hope that holds true for this one. Yeah especially this season that has been the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I am going to heed your own advice from yesterday: Models tend to under-do that northern periphery of moisture and its extent. We've been here and time and time again and more times than not will the precipitation field trend further north than is currently being shown.Yeah I hate to sound clichè but this is going to be one where we will have to see how that precip is blossoming on Wednesday evening and into Thursday. If it’s sets up over N AL and moves to N GA we should be in business. Not a lot to compare this one to with that large expansive high. Usually we don’t have that to work with or one to that extent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I'm just gonna wait til tomorrow to even think theres a chance of flurries this week. Still waiting for it to somehow be 5 inches of rain lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hvward said: Yeah I hate to sound clichè but this is going to be one where we will have to see how that precip is blossoming on Wednesday evening and into Thursday. If it’s sets up over N AL and moves to N GA we should be in business. Not a lot to compare this one to with that large expansive high. Usually we don’t have that to work with or one to that extent. Yeah and the crazy thing is that all the indicies are in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 We can and have done really well in overrunning type events. Seems like most every system has been juiced this season. Even the small snow event two weeks ago was a prime example. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 ICON with a more expansive northern shield of precip on the 12z run. Temps are borderline but I can roll with that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 GFS is essentialy some flurries. But the tilt is a little more SW/NW based compared to 6z, and the storm is a tad stronger at 84 and ever so slightly north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 15z SREF plumes have 5 members between an inch and 3 inches of snow in Boone up to 0z on the 21st.... Compare to 9z earlier which had 1 member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 18z NAM has precip again oriented in a great fashion for accumulating snow in WNC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, Hvward said: 18z NAM has precip again oriented in a great fashion for accumulating snow in WNC. Yeah so far the NAM is looking good. Like iv said lets get into tomorrow and start to beat the drums pretty heavy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 This would be a nice thump! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: This would be a nice thump! No doubt it would. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Yea, lets hope the NAM keeps trending that way, very nice run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 hour ago, AsheCounty48 said: 15z SREF plumes have 5 members between an inch and 3 inches of snow in Boone up to 0z on the 21st.... Compare to 9z earlier which had 1 member. NAM shows why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 The GFS has caved with the precip much farther north. Kudos to @Hvward, he was on point yesterday in saying that the models would struggle with the northern periphery of moisture. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Sref mean has jumped up to an inch and a half for Franklin. About the same for Asheville. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 The 00z NAM still looking good for us. Still though a lot can happen. Ill feel a lot better at 18z tomorrow if we are still in the drivers seat. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 The Hi Res Nam isn't going to have as much moisture it appears if you extrapolate it but we still have time. Interesting runs tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 This appears to be turning into a long duration event. Especially for an overrunning event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: This appears to be turning into a long duration event. Especially for an overrunning event. Noticed that as well. Also noticed that the snow totals seem very low given the temps, time of day and simulated radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, BooneWX said: Noticed that as well. Also noticed that the snow totals seem very low given the temps, time of day and simulated radar. Agree. Think we’ll see that catch up with tomorrow or tomorrow nights runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Maybe I’m stepping out of bounds but I think will do great with this event. A WSW event for all the mountains, I just know from past experiences these events usually trends better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 NAM - Check ICON - Check GFS - On deck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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