MotoWeatherman Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Covered again and coming down decent. Lol Cam_East-213521-213529.mp4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Crazy thing this morning, there’s a stripe of snow/ice in a band that looks to be running in the 4000-5000’ elevation range on both sides of 74 from the gap to Hazelwood (plott balsams one one side, great balsams on the other). Starts just above Nothing below or above that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Remarkable that if the 12Z GFS is right, when the storm is over, north GA and Upstate of SC will have had more snow than mountain locales below 4,000 feet. Remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted February 14, 2020 Author Share Posted February 14, 2020 Remarkable that if the 12Z GFS is right, when the storm is over, north GA and Upstate of SC will have had more snow than mountain locales below 4,000 feet. Remarkable. As will Myrtle Beach, SC.Not the first run to show this slider and the euro has been on board too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Tyler Penland said: As will Myrtle Beach, SC. Not the first run to show this slider and the euro has been on board too. That’s true. Now think about that, myrtle beach having more snow in the 2019/2020 winter than most mountain locales to date. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 This winter nothing surprises me but today is a beautiful day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 58 minutes ago, wncsnow said: This winter nothing surprises me but today is a beautiful day! Yes crisp mid 40s day with a NE wind. Feels, dare I say, a bit winterish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Appalachian Trail Over Hump, Big Yellow and Roan Mountains Balds in December 2019 Absolutely fantastic 1 hour video and rendering of the experience of being in the AT with snow cover and above the clouds. Few are blessed to experience this in summer and even fewer in winter. It is truly the best the NC High Country has to offer. Heaven at its best. Kudos to the fellow who put this together Enjoy 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 Appalachian Trail Over Hump, Big Yellow and Roan Mountains Balds in December 2019 Absolutely fantastic 1 hour video and rendering of the experience of being in the AT with snow cover and above the clouds. Few are blessed to experience this in summer and even fewer in winter. It is truly the best the NC High Country has to offer. Heaven at its best. Kudos to the fellow who put this together Enjoy I feel lucky to live on Big Bald because I get to see this stuff so often. So, so drastically different from living south of Columbia and in Northern Texas before that. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Took a advantage of the beautiful weather and fished Fontana for a few hours this afternoon, second February in a row where it’s way up for the time of year. Only 17’ below full pond. Low 50’s for water temps, never thought I’d be catching fish shallow in the back of a creek in mid-February up here like it’s pre-spawn. Such is this winter. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Really liking the setup for Thursday, we have done ok in these type of overrunning events here in WNC. Think back to early Dec of 2017.Models tend to under-do that northern periphery of moisture and its extent. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Remember that time the NAVGEM nailed a winter storm from 4 days out that others weren’t really showing? Yep that was the overrunning event of Dec 10th, 2017. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, Hvward said: Remember that time the NAVGEM nailed a winter storm from 4 days out that others weren’t really showing? Yep that was the overrunning event of Dec 10th, 2017. I searched for snowfall maps from that event but only came up with badly pixelated maps. It looks like most of WNC picked up half a foot from that with Mt. Mitchell picking up 25". You have grabbed my attention, Hunter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 That was a good storm. If this turned into half of that I would be pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 33 minutes ago, Buckethead said: I searched for snowfall maps from that event but only came up with badly pixelated maps. It looks like most of WNC picked up half a foot from that with Mt. Mitchell picking up 25". You have grabbed my attention, Hunter. Most areas received 10-12" in that storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 3 hours ago, Buckethead said: I searched for snowfall maps from that event but only came up with badly pixelated maps. It looks like most of WNC picked up half a foot from that with Mt. Mitchell picking up 25". You have grabbed my attention, Hunter. Yeah as Franklin mentioned that was a great storm for about all the mountains. Most picked up a foot to about a foot and a half then it got cold and snowed again two days later. The snow stayed around for about 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 I wasn't completely awake yet earlier, obviously. I remember that one well, it was the first double digit snowfall after we moved here. Picked up 11.25".Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 We got right at a foot here. That was the weekend my wife and I stayed at biltmore. They had about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 From the pics I've seen 2017 was pretty great here in the N GA mountains also. I was unfortunately in Athens that day with a 34 degree rain so I missed it. Is the tilt and alignment of the trough next week at all similar to that setup or was it much less positively tilted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 From the pics I've seen 2017 was pretty great here in the N GA mountains also. I was unfortunately in Athens that day with a 34 degree rain so I missed it. Is the tilt and alignment of the trough next week at all similar to that setup or was it much less positively tilted? A bit less of a positive tilt to the trough in 2017, also a much less expansive high. Models showed much less moisture leading up to the event but the GFS and Euro caught on within 36 hours. NAM had the storm pretty well but wavered with it some. Not exactly sure what to think with the less positive tilt to this look, but still thinking the precip shield expands north with more qpf. Reading back through the Mountain thread of 2017 and at one point in time we had the JMA, NAVGEM, & ICON? I think vs. the GFS, Euro, UKMET. Was a wild event to forecast. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted February 16, 2020 Author Share Posted February 16, 2020 Not exactly sure what to think with the less positive tilt to this look, but still thinking the precip shield expands north with more qpf. Yep. Right to the Watauga line most likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 hours ago, Tyler Penland said: Yep. Right to the Watauga line most likely. I feel this so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Euro with a huge northern shift with the precip. This storm should now have all of our attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 20 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Euro with a huge northern shift with the precip. This storm should now have all of our attention. I've felt like for days that the models were poorly handling the precip shield. If it's anything like every other system that's passed through during the last year, it'll overachieve on qpf and cover a lot of ground. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 6z NAM has the precip oriented exactly how WNC would like it at hour 84. Yeah long range NAM ya da ya da, it nailed the last shortwave. GFS looks similar with that strip of precip over NGA into WNC. This feature has been shown on almost all models at some point in time over the past 3-4 days and you have to use those little hints. Let’s see today if that strip continues to expand and last for more frames. Also 0z EPS with a nice uptick in snow totals for WNC. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Yeah as mentioned this is far from being nailed down. We have seen this year after year. A northward trend is most likely with the precipitation coverage. We have a lot of time for things to change for better or worst. Really things should be much more clear by tomorrow afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 18 minutes ago, Hvward said: 6z NAM has the precip oriented exactly how WNC would like it at hour 84. Yeah long range NAM ya da ya da, it nailed the last shortwave. GFS looks similar with that strip of precip over NGA into WNC. This feature has been shown on almost all models at some point in time over the past 3-4 days and you have to use those little hints. Let’s see today if that strip continues to expand and last for more frames. Also 0z EPS with a nice uptick in snow totals for WNC. What are your thoughts on the thermal profiles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 ECMWF looks good overnight, though typical Day 4 caveats are in effect. Other models agree somewhat, even if the GFS loses the system some runs. NAM appears to have it. High press remains firm for the cold air. System tracking to the south, originating from Texas, my favorite for sliders / non-cutters. Northern stream appears to prevent any cut, if the HP wasn’t already enough. 700 mb temps look great for the Mountains. Lower elevations (Sanitarium) have boundary layer temp issues. Mountains should be fine, in fact at/below freezing above 3,000 FT. Starting late last week, better late than never! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: ECMWF looks good overnight, though typical Day 4 caveats are in effect. Other models agree somewhat, even if the GFS loses the system some runs. NAM appears to have it. High press remains firm for the cold air. System tracking to the south, originating from Texas, my favorite for sliders / non-cutters. Northern stream appears to prevent any cut, if the HP wasn’t already enough. 700 mb temps look great for the Mountains. Lower elevations (Sanitarium) have boundary layer temp issues. Mountains should be fine, in fact at/below freezing above 3,000 FT. Starting late last week, better late than never! All the pieces are there, this will be fun to nail down the specifics. What are your thoughts on orographic uplifting along the southern escarpment? I've seen @Rainforrest cash in with setups like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 What are your thoughts on the thermal profiles? Like nrgeff said, thermals look good for mountain locations, below 1500’ could struggle. We just need the moisture. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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