franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said: Hopefully it will but virtually every model still gives us a couple inches. Yeah, the ukie was fairly amped too. Hopefully tomorrow and Friday it amps up a little more. It does look to be a little colder so we will have better rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Saturday has downshifted a bit, but Friday looks good NWF. Two small events, NWF and clipper ain't bad. Arguably it's even better skiing. Friday looks juicier behind the main rain. Plus a short-wave is forecast so it is hybrid NWF and cyclonic flow aloft. Saturday that short-wave is filling a bit, but the temp profiles look colder compared to forecast yesterday. Despite lower QPF, snow amounts are not that degraded mountains. I'm not sure about a big time snow chase; but, I definitely like the skiing. These NC ski areas are specialists in artificial snow augmentation after rain. It'll be fine. Still early on the track, Catty/Maggie vs Avery Co. Hopefully ALL! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Lol the NWS is like im yeah everyone is going to get some flooding. Its going to rain every day from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 19 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Saturday has downshifted a bit, but Friday looks good NWF. Two small events, NWF and clipper ain't bad. Arguably it's even better skiing. Friday looks juicier behind the main rain. Plus a short-wave is forecast so it is hybrid NWF and cyclonic flow aloft. Saturday that short-wave is filling a bit, but the temp profiles look colder compared to forecast yesterday. Despite lower QPF, snow amounts are not that degraded mountains. I'm not sure about a big time snow chase; but, I definitely like the skiing. These NC ski areas are specialists in artificial snow augmentation after rain. It'll be fine. Still early on the track, Catty/Maggie vs Avery Co. Hopefully ALL! Thanks for stopping by Jeff. The upslope snow looks really good currently so we shall see. As I mentioned earlier we are lucky to be tracking anything currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 51 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Its frustrating how its getting sheared out. Hopefully it will hold together a little longer as we move closer. This whole winter is frustrating but the only upside is that it is only February 5th... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Things are looking a little dire for flooding this month.. Long range the Euro and GFS pump out tons of rain for the area.. 8-12 inches the next 2 weeks seem possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 The Euro looks pretty pitiful unless you live in or near the Smokies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 10 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The Euro looks pretty pitiful unless you live in or near the Smokies That looks similar to last Friday’s event.. Euro said no flakes for anyone below 3,500 feet. Of course, euro corrected itself once snow was falling as far south as Easley SC lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: That looks similar to last Friday’s event.. Euro said no flakes for anyone below 3,500 feet. Of course, euro corrected itself once snow was falling as far south as Easley SC lol The difference in comparison to last event is the trajectory of moisture and the strength of the wave. Unless it starts trending stringer, there wont be enough moisture for anyone outside the smokes for more than a novelty snow shower or sprinkle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 The Euro looks pretty pitiful unless you live in or near the Smokies [/ Total snowfall looks alright for the two events.. lots of details still to hammer out, no certainties. but this is more interesting than most the things we have tracked this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: Things are looking a little dire for flooding this month.. Long range the Euro and GFS pump out tons of rain for the area.. 8-12 inches the next 2 weeks seem possible... You know that's not true , we can't forecast that much snow that far out , what makes you think we can with rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: You know that's not true , we can't forecast that much snow that far out , what makes you think we can with rain? We almost always over-perform with rain here in Western NC. I have close to 10 inches in January so it wont take much to cause big issues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 `18Z Nam now shows no snow at all for the weekend. Hopefully the up slope will over perform.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: `18Z Nam now shows no snow at all for the weekend. Hopefully the up slope will over perform.. It’s the Nam at range, if it showed a foot of snow would we believe it. Most models show at least some snow so let’s just enjoy what we can get, I still believe the models will come in wetter in future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 3 hours ago, Sw NC weather said: It’s the Nam at range, if it showed a foot of snow would we believe it. Most models show at least some snow so let’s just enjoy what we can get, I still believe the models will come in wetter in future runs. If it was a foot I would say it was its usual overamplification bias. The Nam showing nothing is a warning shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 What happened to the thundersnow that was modeled? Guess I can just stay put and see nothing! Save me the trip to the mountains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 12 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: If it was a foot I would say it was its usual oversimplification bias. The Nam showing nothing is a warning shot. Not really, it's the end of the nam..if it's still showing that within 36 hours its time to worry. I'll wait till the nam and rgem get in their range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Robert has been laying down the painful truth on Facebook. Also talks about the flooding threat which I am very concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 40 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Robert has been laying down the painful truth on Facebook. Also talks about the flooding threat which I am very concerned I’m glad he’s speaking truth now and not hyping phantom , blockbuster cold and snowy patterns 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 I want to apologize for the last two winters. I think I jinxed our chances last December during the big one. I joked with people after the storm that we had received enough snow for two years. Welp - super ironic now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 The Nam is back! We can all breath now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 hour ago, BooneWX said: I want to apologize for the last two winters. I think I jinxed our chances last December during the big one. I joked with people after the storm that we had received enough snow for two years. Welp - super ironic now. This is the most depressing winter I have ever experienced, especially after living in VT for a number of years. Still holding at a trace on the year. The worst will be the long wait until next year. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 It has absolutely poured the rain all night. I see no change in that today either. Big problems with flooding I think going through today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Thunderstorms this morning! How exciting! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Flood warnings for several counties. Lots of water running off into creeks and rivers. We still have all day of this also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 This is gonna be a long day weather wise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Over 3 inches here and adding up quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Also, GFS and Nam (havent looked at 3k) both say what second round of snow? Basically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Majority of the precip setting up west of the 85 corridor until later today. Feel sorry for our mountain and foothill peeps this morning. Its gonna get ugly quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 16 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Also, GFS and Nam (havent looked at 3k) both say what second round of snow? Basically. The story of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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