franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 The lowest level worth looking at in our region is 850. If you're in the valleys and you have decent lift it will be snow. If it's just scattered precip then its probably just drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Buckethead said: Is there a 925mb level in the high country? I thought that was around 2500'. In the valleys. But it's not even worth looking at that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Did anyone see the rain amounts the Euro is putting out for next week...ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 GFS is really dry, and NAM finally is starting to lean towards the other models. See you guys mid February. Looks like wrap around rain as well instead of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 12z CMC wasn’t terrible for some backside action. I realize the NAM is probably wrong, but I sure hope moisture spreads more to the NW than most other models are figuring. I’ll hold on until the very end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Ukie was no bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Goodness what a shi-----------y winter and I've lived here 63 years, worst I've ever seen in those years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Euro blanks the mtns, dusting to half inch out across escarpment and foothills. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Tacoma said: Goodness what a shi-----------y winter and I've lived here 63 years, worst I've ever seen in those years. and I don't think it's gonna change. I would be honestly surprised if we almost blank the entirety of February minus a light NWFS event. There's just nothing positive happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: and I don't think it's gonna change. I would be honestly surprised if we almost blank the entirety of February minus a light NWFS event. There's just nothing positive happening. Sunny and 64 F on Monday is positive or at least if we can't get snow, I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Moonhowl said: Sunny and 64 F on Monday is positive or at least if we can't get snow, I'll take it I'm 100% in agreement. Might even go off the mountain to enjoy it even more Might even lay in the sun lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Fishing season is just around the corner, water levels will surely be good until summer at this rate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 18 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Fishing season is just around the corner, water levels will surely be good until summer at this rate! I’ll take it! Ready to get back out on Lake James! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I know its the HRRR, but the 18z looks very NAM like. It has some higher elevation snowfall accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Trying to stay positive here.. Not just for this event but in general.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, strongwxnc said: Trying to stay positive here.. Not just for this event but in general.. depending on how you view positive...Positive for me is I want the rest of winter to be like Monday lol. i'm over this 35 degree rain we keep getting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, BhamParker said: I know its the HRRR, but the 18z looks very NAM like. It has some higher elevation snowfall accumulations. Its a torch at the surface 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 16 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Trying to stay positive here.. Not just for this event but in general.. Its only January... Thats the positive lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Its only January... Thats the positive lol. No doubt man! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Its a torch at the surface It will be close to freezing at his locale 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 16 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Its a torch at the surface NAM coming in about 3 degrees colder than its last run. 33 here at the height of precip and showing snow. HRRR is usually pretty torchy at 2m. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold air aloft Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Its only January... Thats the positive lol. Yeah, even though this Winter has been beyond disappointing so far, if you have lived in this area for any length of time you know we still have two more months for something to hit. I actually kind of like the back half of Winter events, freezing rain is less of a worry and with the changing dynamics in the atmosphere as we get closer to Spring, the chances for some thunder snow increases as well. Plus, just the law of averages says we get at least one legitimate event. I'm not going to quit on Winter on January 30. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 From the NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC Looks like for now they are saying 1-3 above about 4,000 feet. My place is 3,770, so itll be a close call for sure. Would love for the NAM to be miraculously right and precip extend much further NW than other models. .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM Thursday: An upper shortwave will eject out of the digging longwave trough, crossing the Gulf states Friday and the Carolinas Friday night. This feature will induce weak cyclogenesis right along the northern Gulf Coast, and spread a precip shield across most, if not all, of the forecast area by early Friday evening. A weak wedge of high pressure will be in place as precip develops, but thicknesses only support any wintry precip in the highest elevations. Forecast soundings show no warm nose, so expect just an elevation-dependent rain/snow situation Friday night into early Saturday. The question is how low will snow levels be, and how much QPF. The NAM seems to be a wet outlier, so throwing that out, we only have a couple of tenths of an inch of QPF for most of the mountains 00z to 12z Saturday. This would result in 1-3" above about 4000 ft. Will continue to mention the HWO, but this looks sub-advisory level at this point. Otherwise, temps will be mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s with most of the precip. The sfc low quickly zips on east of the Outer Banks during the day Saturday, but strong mid-level forcing will allow for another round of mainly scattered showers to cross the forecast area from the west. The 850 mb flow and temps don`t support much in the way of NW flow snow showers along the TN border, and thicknesses should be too warm for anything but rain east of the mountains. Going with highs near normal under mostly cloudy skies. Whatever NW flow snow shower activity we have may linger Saturday night, but should be over with by daybreak Sunday. Additional snow accums are expected to be very light. Lows will be slightly above normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 18z NAM looked alright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 When you have to hunt this hard for flakes in the mountains, in the heart of winter, that pretty much sums up how bad this winter is! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 This winter has been terrible for everyone east of the Mississippi. We are averaging out our climo. We had a good run from 09 till about 2017. A couple epic years in there too. Dont worry, it will snow again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, franklin NCwx said: This winter has been terrible for everyone east of the Mississippi. We are averaging out our climo. We had a good run from 09 till about 2017. A couple epic years in there too. Dont worry, it will snow again. I had 2 winters already in that stretch that were basically snow less. In the past 20 years or so it has been cyclical with there often being back to back to back bad winters and back to back snowy winters. Just look at my signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 27 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: This winter has been terrible for everyone east of the Mississippi. We are averaging out our climo. We had a good run from 09 till about 2017. A couple epic years in there too. Dont worry, it will snow again. Honestly, I think since 2010, this has been one of my better decades for winter storms. Two 12" events, several 6"+ events, first white christmas. Anyone who thinks these last few winters have been bad didnt live through 1988-1989 until March 1993 around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Honestly, I think since 2010, this has been one of my better decades for winter storms. Two 12" events, several 6"+ events, first white christmas. Anyone who thinks these last few winters have been bad didnt live through 1988-1989 until March 1993 around here. In the two winters of 09-10 and 10-11 we got about 8 years worth of our average. We had several bad winters in the 90's and early 2000's. I remember those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 37 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I had 2 winters already in that stretch that were basically snow less. In the past 20 years or so it has been cyclical with there often being back to back to back bad winters and back to back snowy winters. Just look at my signature 11-12 was a crappy winter along with this one so far. Those are the only bad winters since the winter of 09. 08-09 was a horrendous winter here. We even missed on that March upper level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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