strongwxnc Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 7 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said: Nam is stubborn. very stubborn. Still don't buy it without other guidance backing it up The 06 NAM continues to show it also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 So the 6z high res NAM has the Asheville Airport 4” of snow. The column is going to be very close to being frozen. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Goodness it just doesn’t stop!! What an overnight run of the NAM, 3KM also looks a lot alike. Sure would be something if the NAM won this thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I wouldn’t complain with the 3-6 inches the Nam shows for me but man oh man if we could be just a degree or two colder it drops a inch of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 The NAM is on an island, but there's always merit to any model that sticks to its guns for 3-4+ days straight. I hope you guys are able to cash in! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 About one inch or more here this morning 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said: About one inch or more here this morning Did it already melt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I picked up about ¾" last night. I dont think that much would've stuck if it weren't for the snow still on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Man the Nam is sticking to its guns, but nothing else is budging either, and if anything other models have gotten slightly warmer actually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Looks like 12k NAM is also sticking to it’s guns with heavy snow for WNC mountains. It has skipped a few frames on tropical tidbits, so I can’t see it all. Out to 39 and still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 minute ago, BhamParker said: Looks like 12k NAM is also sticking to it’s guns with heavy snow for WNC mountains. It has skipped a few frames on tropical tidbits, so I can’t see it all. Wild to see this out on its own. Showing around 6 inches IMBY. Definitely not getting my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, BhamParker said: Looks like 12k NAM is also sticking to it’s guns with heavy snow for WNC mountains. It has skipped a few frames on tropical tidbits, so I can’t see it all. Interestingly enough it’s shifting the heaviest snow axis from northern highest mountains to the escarpment. I mean, I’m not complaining though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 38 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Did it already melt? Yes, more on the ground than on the roads/driveways...2 hr delay for WCS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Interestingly enough it’s shifting the heaviest snow axis from northern highest mountains to the escarpment. I mean, I’m not complaining though. Definitely pull in some higher totals more south and a little east. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, strongwxnc said: Definitely pull in some higher totals more south and a little east. . Yes, not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I’m not from North Carolina but it appears to me the Maggie valley area is in a great spot on those maps. I’m feeling good being 3800 feet up in Haywood county. I need Met1985 to make me feel good about this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, BhamParker said: I’m not from North Carolina but it appears to me the Maggie valley area is in a great spot on those maps. I’m feeling good being 3800 feet up in Haywood county. I need Met1985 to make me feel good about this! In a true Miller A the balsams are the spot to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I hope you guys a little lower can score on this one. That would be something if the Nam was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Forecasters are sticking to their guns as well: Ray... .....This weekend is becoming less murky, but the water is not entirely clear. The takeaway is "light" for any precipitation that falls and "paltry" may end up being a better description. Light rain develops tomorrow afternoon with a light rain/snow mix Friday night but snow levels are generally confined above 3500 ft. or higher. GSP... ....Based on the fcst temps, high elevations again have a chance of snow. Assuming only modest upslope enhancement to the QPF from the major models given relatively weak flow in that layer, and the relatively low mean QPF values from ensembles, totals may not even justify a high-elevation Winter Weather Advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Something to ponder. These are 925 temps during the height of the precip. Ironically enough, looks better just off the mtn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Ouch, 3k NAM says if you’re above 6,000 feet at Mt Mitchell you may see something measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I won’t be able to sleep tonight and can’t wait to get to the mountains whether this thing busts or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 If you're expecting anything in the lower elevations you're gonna get burned.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: If you're expecting anything in the lower elevations you're gonna get burned.. 925mb temps are actually better in the foothills than the high country, ironically enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 925mb temps are actually better in the foothills than the high country, ironically enough. Is there a 925mb level in the high country? I thought that was around 2500'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, Buckethead said: Is there a 925mb level in the high country? I thought that was around 2500'. Even if you go to 850mb here’s what you get, to my point.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Hoping 3800 will be high enough for a couple inches. Anything more than that will be amazing in my eyes. I’m not from catalooche ski area and I’ll drive wherever I need to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Not to be a debbie downer, but the 12k NAM is a degree or two warmer at the surface for our entire forum compared to the 6z. Edit: it's warmer everywhere, not just the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Another main difference is the amount of precip the 12km NAM brings in compared to the Hi Res 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 The short range Canadian (good model) looks bad too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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