WeatherHawk Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 2:42 AM, BhamParker said: 00z NAM starting things off in a nice direction... Expand For who...I am not seeing this...please clarify..thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 2:49 AM, WeatherHawk said: For who...I am not seeing this...please clarify..thanks Looks good for the mountains. Waiting on the regional maps to load in TT but national are out. Looks best for the SW mountains this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 2:51 AM, Tyler Penland said: Looks good for the mountains. Waiting on the regional maps to load in TT but national are out. Looks best for the SW mountains this run. Expand Thanks...I was looking for regionals...appreciate the clarification 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 2:53 AM, WeatherHawk said: Thanks...I was looking for regionals...appreciate the clarificationYeah just don't look at the 32km version it's a dumpster fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 Well looking at the precip maps I was wrong. Nw mountain special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Here’s a good one 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 3:09 AM, BhamParker said: Here’s a good one My WB subscription ran out the other day. Probably need to redo that ha. Good run though. Hopefully the rest of thr 0z suite follows suit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 3:09 AM, BhamParker said: Here’s a good one Expand I like that image I am just a hair above the decimal in the '6.3' on the Watauga and Ashe county line 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 I’m looking forward to my first trip to the mountains of North Carolina. Have heard from many people how beautiful Maggie Valley is. Hoping that this is the start of some good trends for all of us that will be in these areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 3:18 AM, BhamParker said: I’m looking forward to my first trip to the mountains of North Carolina. Have heard from many people how beautiful Maggie Valley is. Hoping that this is the start of some good trends for all of us that will be in these areas. It really is nice. I got married down there back in August. If you are into waterfalls be sure to check out Soco Falls. It's roadside about halfway between Cherokee and Maggie Valley. Beautiful twin falls. Would be great to see in the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 3:20 AM, Tyler Penland said: On 1/29/2020 at 3:18 AM, BhamParker said: I’m looking forward to my first trip to the mountains of North Carolina. Have heard from many people how beautiful Maggie Valley is. Hoping that this is the start of some good trends for all of us that will be in these areas. Expand It really is nice. I got married down there back in August. If you are into waterfalls be sure to check out Soco Falls. It's roadside about halfway between Cherokee and Maggie Valley. Beautiful twin falls. Would be great to see in the snow. Expand We are staying not far at all from Soco falls, so we will def have to check it out. We are about 3800 feet up and not far from the catalooche ski area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 3:18 AM, BhamParker said: I’m looking forward to my first trip to the mountains of North Carolina. Have heard from many people how beautiful Maggie Valley is. Hoping that this is the start of some good trends for all of us that will be in these areas. Expand The NW Blue Ridge is much better IMO large views, cliffs and peaks...hit the parkway up here between Blowing Rock and Linville...then go to Hampton's General Store for some awesome food 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 3:18 AM, BhamParker said: I’m looking forward to my first trip to the mountains of North Carolina. Have heard from many people how beautiful Maggie Valley is. Hoping that this is the start of some good trends for all of us that will be in these areas. Expand Enjoy your trip to Haywood County! Grab breakfast at Joey’s Pancake House there in Maggie, make the short drive over to the western side of Clyde and eat at the Blue Rooster cafe and then if you like beer you have Boojum Brewery in downtown Waynesville and swing by the Blue Ridge Beer Hub just down the street from there to check out their selection of brews from all over (my craft beer go to) to take home with you. Hopefully the weather cooperates! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Nam is meh for this weekend. Everything else is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 All I can hope for is that being high in elevation will throw me a surprise. I’ve noticed with some of you over the last couple events, have been surprised with a couple of inches above 3500 feet and most models really weren’t showing much in the way of accumulation. I know some haven’t seen much, but at least I’ll have some kind of elevation on my side and I’ll drive up higher if I need to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 3:25 AM, WeatherHawk said: The NW Blue Ridge is much better IMO large views, cliffs and peaks...hit the parkway up here between Blowing Rock and Linville...then go to Hampton's General Store for some awesome food Expand If there is a threat of snow the parkway will close the gates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 12:31 PM, BhamParker said: All I can hope for is that being high in elevation will throw me a surprise. I’ve noticed with some of you over the last couple events, have been surprised with a couple of inches above 3500 feet and most models really weren’t showing much in the way of accumulation. I know some haven’t seen much, but at least I’ll have some kind of elevation on my side and I’ll drive up higher if I need to. Expand You got options. North of 40 you can drive up to Max Patch (it’ll take a while on the first service roads) and get above 4500’ or if you want a bit of a hike and to get above 5800’ you can access Mount Sterling on the east side of the National Park. You’ll have to get there from the Waterville area though, the other roads on that side of the park (Cataloochee area) are closed for construction. It’s about a 3 mile hike from the trailhead at Mount Sterling Gap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 12km nam still looked good for WNC mountains. The weenie in me will hug that until the end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Not a terrible look on the new NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 It's the long range NAM against the world.. we know how this usually turns out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 2:44 PM, wncsnow said: It's the long range NAM against the world.. we know how this usually turns out Expand Hey it’s been consistent and CMC is kinda similar. Euro has been back and forth and the 12z EPS was the first bad run of the EPS in many runs. It could easily be wrong, but I sure won’t ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 2:39 PM, BhamParker said: 12km nam still looked good for WNC mountains. The weenie in me will hug that until the end. Expand Road Trip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 2:51 PM, BhamParker said: Hey it’s been consistent and CMC is kinda similar. Euro has been back and forth and the 12z EPS was the first bad run of the EPS in many runs. It could easily be wrong, but I sure won’t ignore it. Expand Not that it's wrong, but the Nam has a HEAVY bias of over amplifying systems, which considering the factors at play, would be the reason it shows this snowy solution. Until other models fully agree with the NAM, or show a similar solution...Take that with a giant bag of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 2:44 PM, wncsnow said: It's the long range NAM against the world.. we know how this usually turns out Expand Especially with the way the Nam has it's biases even at close range that we've known for years. I don't trust it right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 GFS looked great for the trailing wave! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Midday models call rain with backside snow. I am 100% tossing the Nam's solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 5:27 PM, AsheCounty48 said: Midday models call rain with backside snow. I am 100% tossing the Nam's solution. Expand Like you said, its bias for overamping storms is obvious with this one. Pretty much every other model is progressive with the storm and only gets lighter precip into WNC either way, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Ukie pretty much in line with the Euro with the more eastern solution and possibly dry for the main event. So that's about all ya need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 5:45 PM, AsheCounty48 said: Ukie pretty much in line with the Euro with the more eastern solution and possibly dry for the main event. So that's about all ya need to know. Expand I remember the days when the NAM often fell in line with the Euro and that combo was hard to beat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 5:45 PM, AsheCounty48 said: Ukie pretty much in line with the Euro with the more eastern solution and possibly dry for the main event. So that's about all ya need to know. Expand It looks good for the wrap around I’m just happy that all models are starting to come around for the idea of accumulating snow on the ULL feature after the first wave this weekend. If we score anything at all on the first part, it would be a bonus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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