WxKnurd Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I remember when they made this graphic they took a lot of flack. This is an edited version of the original. The original omitted a couple seasons of data including big winters of 1988 and another so the totals are lower than expected for some still. My 30 year average in Marion is around 10 inches not 6.6. Ah gotcha! I remember it floating around so I went and found it. It was from ‘88 to 18’ wasn’t it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, WxKnurd said: Ah gotcha! I remember it floating around so I went and found it. It was from ‘88 to 18’ wasn’t it? Yes I believe so. Originally it had my 30 year average at 3.3 which was not even close. I called them out on it and they admitted they were missing snowfall data for a couple years and remade it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I remember when they made this graphic they took a lot of flack. This is an edited version of the original. The original omitted a couple seasons of data including big winters of 1988 and another so the totals are lower than expected for some still. My 30 year average in Marion is around 10 inches not 6.6. No way Asheville gets more than waynesville or Highlands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, franklin NCwx said: No way Asheville gets more than waynesville or Highlands. Yea the map is pretty poorly done even after the needed edits. Almost like an intern did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 So if we have NWS or CoCoRaHS stations with missing data how is it even possible to have a verified annual precipitation total for a given location? We can all sit here and say “well I got 6” in this storm and 8” in that one” til we are blue in the face but unless you are keeping accurate records of every event for all precipitation types then it’s all just a best, educated guess anyway. Sorry, it’s the engineer in me lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, WxKnurd said: So if we have NWS or CoCoRaHS stations with missing data how is it even possible to have a verified annual precipitation total for a given location? We can all sit here and say “well I got 6” in this storm and 8” in that one” til we are blue in the face but unless you are keeping accurate records of every event for all precipitation types then it’s all just a best, educated guess anyway. Sorry, it’s the engineer in me lol. The biggest issue with the mountains is all the micro climates we have. There can be huge variations in snowfall, rainfall, temps ect, ect, in just a mile difference. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The biggest issue with the mountains is all the micro climates we have. There can be huge variations in snowfall, rainfall, temps ect, ect, in just a mile difference. Yea we have a unique climate for sure! That’s why I love our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 While the Euro may have been a whiff, the EPS is still fairly aggressive for the weekend. What is the best EPS chart to look at that would translate to a similar look for Maggie valley? I’ve just been choosing Asheville, but I’d imagine they’d do better then Asheville being at a higher elevation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 12z ICON not far off from what the 6z GFS showed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 gut feeling based on what I'm seeing. Need what appears to be two pieces of energy in the gulf to combine and rapidly intensify and have the system "produce its own cold air". GFS is yet again too warm as it's passing by, and we don't have another cold source to tap. Freezing temperatures aren't even found until you go halfway into West Virginia. That's not gonna do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 0z Ukie has this to show at hour 96 as the storm is happening for us. Literally no cold air anywhere near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 gut feeling based on what I'm seeing. Need what appears to be two pieces of energy in the gulf to combine and rapidly intensify and have the system "produce its own cold air". GFS is yet again too warm as it's passing by, and we don't have another cold source to tap. Freezing temperatures aren't even found until you go halfway into West Virginia. That's not gonna do it.Dynamic cooling occurring, could be our only hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 This dang storm better have some dynamic cooling. If this one busts, I’ll suspend myself from chasing forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 CMC with a better look overall than the Icon/GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 CMC also brings down another bowling ball ULL like we saw earlier this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: CMC also brings down another bowling ball ULL like we saw earlier this season. Model madness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 What a difference 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, BhamParker said: What a difference GFS has been all over the place..I would put zero stock in the American model at this point in the game. Going to be reaaaalllly close on this one. Everything still on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Verbatim, it's dry compared to other models, but temp profiles look better at the surface compared to the GFS/Icon, and CMC to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Ukie ticked east with precip..we don’t want to lose it too far east yet bc the precip shield will usually expand towards verification..but ughh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 I feel like the 12z Euro was a nice step in the right direction. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 33 minutes ago, BhamParker said: I feel like the 12z Euro was a nice step in the right direction. sortof yes. the storm mentioned still is way too far to the east and we actually don't get a drop of precip from it I don't believe unless I missed a frame. But the LP center did come west quite a good margin on this run, which is helping to funnel winds in from the NW and with whatever moisture is left is sparking some NWFS is the wake of the storm. Still a mile to go, but that is progress. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 12z EPS with lots of different ways this could pan out. The threat is definetley very much still alive 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 The GFS and Nam both say the usual 36 degree rain this weekend. Unless 0z ukie and euro say otherwise, this will be just another cold rain as we get closer to spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 I prefer a whiff to the east and dry weekend myself 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 I am just hoping the latest Euro was correct and the earlier CMC was on to something. Clearly seems to be several different options on the table, but I am nervous about the situation. I'm not giving up just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, BhamParker said: I am just hoping the latest Euro was correct and the earlier CMC was on to something. Clearly seems to be several different options on the table, but I am nervous about the situation. I'm not giving up just yet. Might be time to put all of our eggs in that trailing ULL basket..Need that flow out of the NW after the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Might be time to put all of our eggs in that trailing ULL basket..Need that flow out of the NW after the rain Yeah , we get our best snows at 45-50 degrees! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 37 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah , we get our best snows at 45-50 degrees! Ducks on the pond! CJ going with a mountain r/s mix on Saturday/Sunday.. even with models being a disaster for the mountains today..this one ain’t over..You have to smell the rain down in the valley before you accumulate on top of the mountain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 00z NAM starting things off in a nice direction... lots of moisture and coming in at night made for snow for just about the entire event for WNC mountains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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