Moonhowl Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 22 minutes ago, Buckethead said: Really? Lol. I bet they talked over it...the silence was the best part. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk It had pretty decent amount of air time; they looped your video 2 or 3 times but yes, they did not give it the peaceful silence it called for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 You know the models dont look that bad. Im kind of excited about the next few weeks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 49 minutes ago, Met1985 said: You know the models dont look that bad. Im kind of excited about the next few weeks. To be honest it seems like an average/seasonal temp pattern with storm opportunities. That produces way more often than when an Arctic outbreak occurs. I’m right there with you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 You know the models dont look that bad. Im kind of excited about the next few weeks.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 .That would be just fine.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 That would put me above average for winter if it happened. TW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 We will just sit back and let it come to us. I really think it will happen in the next 2 to 4 weeks. A wide range but I just like our chances going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 We're close...to something around February 1st. Lack of cold air could be a killer if the storm comes back NW. But honestly it's all we have besides potentially some wrap around NWFS this weekend. As for the 45 day forecast...that's a 45 day forecast that takes us to the middle of march? I'm not promised at all by that. but guess it's better than what we have now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Decent look on the storm for next weekend. I'll hold onto it for now, haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 27 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: Decent look on the storm for next weekend. I'll hold onto it for now, haha. Definitely worth watching. Its gonna be a thread the needle type of event. Hopefully something finally breaks our way! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Euro starting to sniff out some higher elevation snow chances the next 10 days.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 17 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Euro starting to sniff out some higher elevation snow chances the next 10 days.. I like the look of the Euro. No worries currently for us to see winter weather soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Euro looks ok...overall I think as of now it is the best look. But were still in that 8-11 day range so until we get closer I'm keeping my hype at a 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: Euro looks ok...overall I think as of now it is the best look. But were still in that 8-11 day range so until we get closer I'm keeping my hype at a 0. Im still very interested in this weekend with the cold crashing in with a nice upslope look to the models. Next weekend is nice but meh currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Im still very interested in this weekend with the cold crashing in with a nice upslope look to the models. Next weekend is nice but meh currently. I'm not very optimistic on this weekend yet. To me the orientation of it doesnt seem to be the greatest this far south. That can of course change but further north I think will be a better spot to get some good action. And though the NAM is in long range territory still, it looks dry from what I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Latest NAM seemed to have a much better orientation as far as precipitation goes. It extended further south and appeared to still be doing well at hour 84. It is the long rane nam, but I would imagine that would be a trend we want to see more of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 23, 2020 Author Share Posted January 23, 2020 Probably overdoing it but the 18z 3km NAM keeps some areas right in the most favored areas along the nw escarpment as ZR until the very end of the precip Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phelps Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Was worried we were losing the NW flow event this weekend but GSP seems to be leaving the door open. While it looks to be a relatively prolonged period of NW flow snow, the guidance doesn`t agree on if the snowfall amounts will be significant. The wind speeds and directions and the CAA are good but not great. However, there area multiple short waves dropping through the flow across the area and weak low level instability which are favorable. Keep low PoP across the usual areas through the period and will have to keep an eye on the situation for any potentially significant snowfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Phelps said: Was worried we were losing the NW flow event this weekend but GSP seems to be leaving the door open. While it looks to be a relatively prolonged period of NW flow snow, the guidance doesn`t agree on if the snowfall amounts will be significant. The wind speeds and directions and the CAA are good but not great. However, there area multiple short waves dropping through the flow across the area and weak low level instability which are favorable. Keep low PoP across the usual areas through the period and will have to keep an eye on the situation for any potentially significant snowfall. Good catch in the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 An interesting look going into Monday on both the ICON and GFS. Noticed several Euro ensemble members show that wave blossoming that moves in behind the NWF as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, Hvward said: An interesting look going into Monday on both the ICON and GFS. Noticed several Euro ensemble members show that wave blossoming that moves in behind the NWF as well. looks a bit different, but add the CMC as well. I'm more excited by that than the upslope "event" this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 I guess its something but still a long shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 I guess its something but still a long shot Not a far as one may think. These waves have developed before on the tail end of a cold front for nice surprise events here in WNC. It’s easy to say snow is a long shot, and you won’t be wrong in most cases. ..But I still enjoy discussing the upcoming pattern and diving into the details. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Not a far as one may think. These waves have developed before on the tail end of a cold front for nice surprise events here in WNC. It’s easy to say snow is a long shot, and you won’t be wrong in most cases. ..But I still enjoy discussing the upcoming pattern and diving into the details.I'm pretty optimistic about the next 10 days man! Thanks for your input, as always.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Hvward said: Not a far as one may think. These waves have developed before on the tail end of a cold front for nice surprise events here in WNC. It’s easy to say snow is a long shot, and you won’t be wrong in most cases. ..But I still enjoy discussing the upcoming pattern and diving into the details. This is what I was talking about earlier in the week about the pulses of energy rotating in. Good stuff Ward! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Buckethead said: I'm pretty optimistic about the next 10 days man! Thanks for your input, as always. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Absolutely! This is way better than tracking record highs this time of the year. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Man, sunday night and monday morning is getting a little sneaky. Canadian and GFS are very close it seems like. I am hoping for a surprise in the mountains in Gatlinburg this weekend. We will be leaving Monday around lunch. 9 of 20 members from the GEFS have 1 inch of snowfall in Knoxville, so maybe they are sniffing something out. EPS will be interesting at 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 The Op Euro looks pretty depressing still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Yeah the Euro and EPS is not pretty at all for this weekend. Latest NAM seems like it has some more NW flow action, but it is only out to 63 hours... Hoping that the higher resolution models will look more encouraging. The RGEM looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Keeps getting less and less each run since yesterday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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