LithiaWx Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 From today : My buddy sent me a photo of the Cherohala Skyway. This was right after he had a small crash on the ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Happy Thanksgiving y'all. I truly love this time of year. This ole mountain crew holds a special place in my heart. So cheers my friends heres to getting fat and late night euro runs lol God bless!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 The cutoff upper level low is really going to enhance this NWF that’s coming Sunday night. Usually the models don’t really hint at northwest flow until 3 or so days out, but every single model has been showing it for a couple of days now. Even the Euro is showing it and it is not a go to model for NWF. In fact the EPS shows .2” of snow at the Asheville Airport on Avg this past run. The 500mb ULL is going to make this NWF beefier than usual, and could put it in the top 5 NWF events of the past 10 years around WNC. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 15 minutes ago, Hvward said: The cutoff upper level low is really going to enhance this NWF that’s coming Sunday night. Usually the models don’t really hint at northwest flow until 3 or so days out, but every single model has been showing it for a couple of days now. Even the Euro is showing it and it is not a go to model for NWF. In fact the EPS shows .2” of snow at the Asheville Airport on Avg this past run. The 500mb ULL is going to make this NWF beefier than usual, and could put it in the top 5 NWF events of the past 10 years around WNC. Do you have any data on the top 5 NWF events in the past decade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Do you have any data on the top 5 NWF events in the past decade? For me this is based off of memory, as I am not sure that there is a database that distinguishes between which events were NWF and which events weren’t. So my comment is based off of memory.. take it with a grain of salt lol. What this system does kind of remind me of a bit is the October 31st, 2014 storm. That ULL came barreling over the mountains, similar to how the models show occurring on late Sunday night or Monday am. Even Asheville got 3” of snow from that. This will be a really interesting event imo. As far as dynamics, which is where I start focusing on this far out. A stout lobe of the vort is going to stretch across the Tennessee Valley and as that vort screams into the Apps, the lift will be incredible. With the Great Lakes warm, it’s a recipe for a really stout event. Maybe I should tone down my excitement, but seeing so many NWF signatures on every model really has me optimistic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 2 hours ago, Hvward said: For me this is based off of memory, as I am not sure that there is a database that distinguishes between which events were NWF and which events weren’t. So my comment is based off of memory.. take it with a grain of salt lol. What this system does kind of remind me of a bit is the October 31st, 2014 storm. That ULL came barreling over the mountains, similar to how the models show occurring on late Sunday night or Monday am. Even Asheville got 3” of snow from that. This will be a really interesting event imo. As far as dynamics, which is where I start focusing on this far out. A stout lobe of the vort is going to stretch across the Tennessee Valley and as that vort screams into the Apps, the lift will be incredible. With the Great Lakes warm, it’s a recipe for a really stout event. Maybe I should tone down my excitement, but seeing so many NWF signatures on every model really has me optimistic. I hope you don't take me as questioning your expertise man, I'm a nerd that likes to read and was curious if you knew how to find that data lol. And please don't tone yourself down, it's not like you're Mike Seidelling it lol. Thanks for the info as always! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Models look to be in good agreement for the flow snow Sunday night through Monday. GSP does point out that their concern is that there is no ensemble support for decent moisture. I never know which one to trust. If you follow the operationals people say you must look at the ensembles and vice-a-versa. I not sure when it was, maybe 7 or 8 years ago, we had a 4 day flow event that put down over 2 feet total. Some of the squalls in that storm were some of the heaviest I've seen. I remember one that put down about an inch and a half in 15 minutes. I think it was in February. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Happy Thanksgiving mountain peeps! Yall are the best! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 The overeating has already begun. It's my wife's fault for putting the pumpkin pie in the fridge last night lol. That stuff is irrestible cold! Has anyone had a look at the ensembles? Can't really look right now, just wondering if they still aren't agreeing with the operational models on the nwf event Sun/Mon.. Happy Thanksgiving, y'all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 29 minutes ago, Buckethead said: The overeating has already begun. It's my wife's fault for putting the pumpkin pie in the fridge last night lol. That stuff is irrestible cold! Has anyone had a look at the ensembles? Can't really look right now, just wondering if they still aren't agreeing with the operational models on the nwf event Sun/Mon.. Happy Thanksgiving, y'all! I'm not sure what you are referring to. Last 3 GEFS look great. As does the 12z operational. The synoptic features have wiggled a bit but the flow event still looks pretty much the same. Verbatim 12z GFS is 6-12 for elevations above 4k in my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 hour ago, MotoWeatherman said: I'm not sure what you are referring to. Last 3 GEFS look great. As does the 12z operational. The synoptic features have wiggled a bit but the flow event still looks pretty much the same. Verbatim 12z GFS is 6-12 for elevations above 4k in my opinion. Something I read in the GSP AFD yesterday about the ensembles not matching the operational runs. I haven't been able to get my link for the gefs to work in a few weeks. Perhaps I misread something... That's good to hear though, thank you! Edit:cleared my browser and now my links are working. Yeah, I obviously misread something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 4 hours ago, Buckethead said: Something I read in the GSP AFD yesterday about the ensembles not matching the operational runs. I haven't been able to get my link for the gefs to work in a few weeks. Perhaps I misread something... Many GFS ensemble members in particular remain unimpressed with this setup and feature little to no snow anywhere but the highest peaks, however, so confidence in a significant NW flow snow event is generally low. This is from GSP's afternoon AFD. They have mentioned this several times in the last day or so. I trust our guys though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 Grandfather causing some nice lenticulars today. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Honestly, ensembles would be the last thing to look at for flow snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Personal thinking is 2-4 inches for elevations above 4k. Starts probably before midnight Sunday night ending sometime on Tuesday. If 850 temps were colder I would be more confident on higher amounts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Gsp mentioning the slight possibility of thundersnow early Monday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Gsp mentioning the slight possibility of thundersnow early Monday morning. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit. The dynamics will certainly be there. The lift is going be pretty intense with the 500mb low moving over top. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 I'm not "as" excited as I was 2 days ago about the event, but hey snow is snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 12 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: I'm not "as" excited as I was 2 days ago about the event, but hey snow is snow at this point. Yeah models aren't as bullish as they were couple of days ago. Almost such a fast flow that the surface feature outruns the UL. Cuts off moisture transport. Normally nam has a wet bias but it's been getting dryer each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I don't take each run of the models at long range as the gospel. I look at trends and one thing is for certain there is a lot of energy flying around and with the winter solstice on our heels.There's somthing about season changes that gets things interesting my biggest snows here in marion was early to mid Dec and of course 93. Definitely has my attention anyway hope everyone had a great thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I'm still feeling pretty good about a general 2-4 inches above 4000 ft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Nam 3km very bullish on the flow. It will be interesting to see potential snowfall totals in the next 2-3 runs. free image hosting 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 midday 3k nam got me on the hype train again. Kuchera with 25 inches for Mt. Mitchell lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Thinking maybe inch and a half...hope we get more, but we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=umv&band=09&length=12 Impressive water vapor loop this evening of the low. I'm pretty optimistic about what it could mean tomorrow night into Monday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Thunderstorm moving through here, lots of lightning with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 25 minutes ago, WxKnurd said: Thunderstorm moving through here, lots of lightning with it. Currently have my third thunderstorm of the day. This one is pretty loud...saw a little graupel on my deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Buckethead said: Currently have my third thunderstorm of the day. This one is pretty loud...saw a little graupel on my deck. Same here. Took me by surprise. What's the rule "If it thunders after you watch football and drink bourbon all day it'll snow in 24 hours". Something like that. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 According to the 3 km NAM y’all higher elevation people are in for your first big snow of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 WWAs are up for the border counties. It wouldn't surprise me if they eventually get upgraded to WSW's by tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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