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Fall 2019 Observations


Carvers Gap
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94/96/97 last 3 days. Looking at 97/98 today but I wouldn't be shocked if we hit 100 either.

 

The previous all-time high for October in Memphis was 95 (set 3 times). Very "impressive" - to say the least.

 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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During the last ten years, we have seen two October snowstorms which mostly hit the mountains, but one had measurable snow on the ground in the Upstate of South Carolina!    The winters that followed were total duds.  We have seen a forest fire burn much of the area on both sides of Gatlinburg.  And now we have seen record heat.  As Windspeed noted above, we have been absolutely crushing record highs.  And what is crazy, I would be a little surprised if this fall doesn't hold some more extremes...just has the feel for a pattern that is about to have some wild swings.  As a kid I remember running around on Halloween in a t-shirt and burning up....and I remember running around in a heavy coat. But I want not more, ever again, of what this heat wave just did...no mas!

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If there is a silver lining, it's that due to the low soil moisture content and dry airmass in place, humidity has been low in the upper Tennessee Valley. So it's been a dry heat for us. The nights have been very comfortable. Now, of course, for the Piedmont, coastal plain/fall line and areas east and south I am sure it's been miserable. That's not much of a silver lining because obviously we're in a drought. Fortunately we're well past growing season for most crops. My lawn is basically dead and brown. Have not bothered mowing in three weeks. Not even weeds are having any of this...

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TRI has officially tied the record high for today, October 4th.  We are at 87 and went past the forecasted high.  I suspected that might be a concern.  Modeling had shown the front taking its time getting through NE TN.  That along with very dry ground has likely allowed for temps to race beyond expected temps.  Seven degrees cooler than yesterday, but a low hanging fruit record high...albeit from 1954.  Shew.  That should be the last of those posts for some time...Breeze is kicking up now.   Might very well have been a downslope component this afternoon with winds out of the east.  Relief is coming, but this pattern got in one more body blow today in NE TN.

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Some convection around around our area,getting a little rain so far.HRRR shows the LLJ kicking up along with the low level shear, in a few hours,should kick up some good rains west of I-65 later on tonight,it's good news for us as we went into a severe drought last week,per the drought monitor

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Had a nice shower earlier, even a clap of thunder. Nice bonus on a 30% POP day.

Two wildfires made the news this weekend - one in Greene Co. caused by an imbecile burning trash, the other of unknown origin in Carter Co. I fear this is just the beginning should a wetter pattern not soon take hold.

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Nice bowed cell with some wind headed towards us,hope it dont fizzle out

 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
846 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

TNZ025>027-057-059-060-070245-
Hickman TN-Williamson TN-Dickson TN-Davidson TN-Maury TN-Cheatham TN-
846 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DAVIDSON...SOUTHEASTERN
DICKSON...NORTH CENTRAL MAURY...WILLIAMSON...SOUTH CENTRAL CHEATHAM
AND NORTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 845 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Burns, or near Bon Aqua, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Brentwood, Nolensville, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, White
Bluff, Belle Meade, Kingston Springs, Thompson`s Station, Pegram,
Burns, Bellevue, Antioch, Fairview, Berry Hill, Primm Springs,
Natchez Trace At Highway 96, Triune and Leipers Fork.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 176 and 199.
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 58 and 80.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 53 and 61.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 1 and 43.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
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TRI's temps have raced upward in the absence of rain along with being stuck for a prolonged amount of time on the east side of a precip band.  Happens often during winter.  Precip stalls.  Sun comes out.  Temps bust high.  How many snowstorms have fizzled with that exact scenario?  A bunch.  Forecast for today was 72 and were are already at 76...the highest temp in E TN I think for the second straight day.  Either way, much better than last week!  I went ahead and watered my garden...that should ensure heavy rainfall for MBY today.  Water bill...I am afraid to look.  My fall garden has only seen .1" of rain since August 28th - 40 days of being hooked up to the city water IV.  Looks like precip will be moving-in around 1:00-2:00 PM if MRX is correct which I think they are...May have to wait for Friday-Sunday for our next legit chances at adequate precip after today.

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Maybe some patchy showers down stream. Between the storm Saturday night and the rain today have added .45 to the bucket for October. Around 1/3rd what was modelled just a couple of days ago. At least it's been cloudy and cool so the rain didn't burn off.  Currently 63 and maybe falling into the 50s late this afternoon into early evening. 

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Got the shaft on rain this afternoon.  Fairly robust line of rain developed over town and head east.  West Kingsport and northwest Hawkins Co only received at best .01-.02.  That one hurt.  I could see the heavy rain from my neighborhood.   Not overly confident in the next line, but it will have to do as that is it.  Might be able to squeeze out a tenth or two at best.   Right now sitting at .01" for the current system.

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8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Got the shaft on rain this afternoon.  Fairly robust line of rain developed over town and head east.  West Kingsport and northwest Hawkins Co only received at best .01-.02.  That one hurt.  I could see the heavy rain from my neighborhood.   Not overly confident in the next line, but it will have to do as that is it.  Might be able to squeeze out a tenth or two at best.   Right now sitting at .01" for the current system.

Similar situation here Carvers. The west side of town had a small shower around 12:45-1, but it fell apart and left us high and dry. So, that leaves me with 0.0 for this system and only 0.13 since August 28. I’m not too confident in this last little band, as it looks like it’s following suit and falling apart. 

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7 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

Similar situation here Carvers. The west side of town had a small shower around 12:45-1, but it fell apart and left us high and dry. So, that leaves me with 0.0 for this system and only 0.13 since August 28. I’m not too confident in this last little band, as it looks like it’s following suit and falling apart. 

I don't like see bands that are split in that manner.  They have a habit of missing portions of NE TN as they slide up...agree.

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I have a legit chance of getting very little to nothing from this, not looking like anywhere near the half inch plus amounts advertised by local offices.  I don't blame weather forecast offices though.  Today is a great example of how things can easily go wrong, and why this region is so tough to get right.  What a lot of folks used to see as the "Bubble" in Kingsport is just downsloping that can occur from three different directions.  Now, the Bubble is the real deal on marginal snow events, and all of us up here know how that comes to pass - local joke, but I can just about guarantee that everyone in Kingsport know exactly what I am talking about.  But today is a great example of how a forecast can bust for this area.  Our forecast high was 72...we hit 79 which I think is tops for all of E TN.  The front hung up and the sun came out for longer than expected I think.   North of 81 and west of 26 pretty much didn't receive any rainfall.  We dealt with downloading winds off the Smokies for much of the day.  When the winds did shift the precip line failed to reform until almost right over downtown Kingsport, and even still...not much.  I think a combination of the left over ridge, the ongoing drought, and downsloping were likely issues.  Also, I was reminded by a friend to beware of rainy fronts(of the entry angle seen today) as they rarely verify well here.  In NE TN, we normally need some type of wave running a boundary, a frontal boundary that drapes over the area, or sometimes a quicker front works.  Another thing that really messes up the conveyor up here is convection to our south - don't think that happened either.  But today does go to show just how many ways precip can dissipate.   If this had been a winter event, we would have gotten blanked.  We average less rainfall up here, and today is likely a great example of why.  Thankfully temps have been much more tolerable.  Valley temps are 15-20 degrees cooler than last week with SW VA maybe pushing 20-25 degrees cooler.  

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On 9/19/2019 at 11:45 AM, Carvers Gap said:

Have a few things that I wanted to share with this photo....First, you can see just how dry MBY is.  Normally, it is a full and a lush green.  Since it is south facing, it can get admittedly a but scruffy at this time of year.  But this is well past being scruffy and about as bad as it gets.  Second, you can see the leaves changing.  Third, @Stovepipe, you can see the mustard greens, lettuce and cover crops chugging away.  We water those which is why they are green.  Lastly, it is thankfully cloudy!  If we do indeed go a couple of more weeks with very little rain, we have a "before" pic now.

680440823_IMG_3402(1).thumb.jpg.34195235f6ebb7c3b6a682814325a155.jpg

Will continue to compare MBY....lighting is different as well as the camera angle which makes it look a tad worse but to the exposure/brightness of the photo.  However one can see the toll that the drought has taken during the last three weeks.  

IMG_3469.thumb.jpg.64c85679cc4799465b798c56b93ef2a8.jpg

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