nrgjeff Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 This morning 59 in BNA and 72 in CHA. Can't buy a front. Plateau preview. No winter for Chatty. I'm way too livid with the crony corrupt crook NCAA to post any meaningful weather discussion. SER forever! 18 hours after this post 58 at KCHA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Currently low 50s here, might make a run at upper 40s by morning. Will hope so at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 Yeah, felt great here this morning. Low to mid 50s if I remember correctly. Truly, in comparison this is what the worst of summer is out West above 5,000'. Cool mornings and warm days with low humidity all summer long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Chattanooga got down to 58 this morning. Truly a miracle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Managed 48 yesterday morning. No luck this morning though. Hopefully the rain comes to pass for the area this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 It rained in Knoxville!!!! Oh...wait....it's gone now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 26, 2019 Author Share Posted September 26, 2019 The WeatherUnderground station on my end of town, which is pretty accurate, still has 0.00" of rain for September. We did have some light showers earlier this week, but the air was so dry that the ground was dry within less than five minutes. I am guessing we might have had 0.02-0.03" of rain if that. So in my book, we are now 29 days straight without appreciable rainfall. Four weeks with barely a drop. There is a small shower heading this way, but is quickly dissipating. Let's see if we can get some sprinkles from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 26, 2019 Author Share Posted September 26, 2019 Received another passing shower. My raised beds aren't even damp from the rain. LOL. I can still see where I watered them from yesterday. Brutal weather pattern for gardeners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 More rain showers moving through this afternoon, one was heavy but brief. There may be a few more in the pipeline but probably not much more than the kind that soaks into the ground within 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 26, 2019 Author Share Posted September 26, 2019 Picked up a nice shower that lasted about ten minutes. Unfortunately, caught the edge of yet another passing storm. Closes wx station has 0.05", but I think we may have been north of 0.1". (Update: Radarscope has me at .05"...pretty bad when .05" seems like a lot!) Saves me having to water the garden for a night! Still not near enough to hold back growing drought conditions, but we will certainly take it. Mid-town and the east side received much less if that is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Chattanooga dewpoint is 70 this morning, utterly unacceptable. Meanwhile from the Nashville WFO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 27, 2019 Author Share Posted September 27, 2019 Record high #6 in the books for September with three more likely after today. TRI hit 90 which ties the old record set during 2017. The normal high is 76. If the NWS forecast verifies, we will break the record on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Sunday's record is an elusive 1954 record. If the 1954 record falls and the next three days are records, 2019 will be the undisputed, record-high record holder for the month of September(if my calculations are correct). If nature comes back and balances the checkbook so to speak...gonna hurt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 29, 2019 Author Share Posted September 29, 2019 TRI set its eighth record high for September today it appears - always have to wait a couple of days for it to be officially in the books. Tomorrow the high is forecast to be 90 so that would be a ninth if it verifies. What is even more interesting is that TRI's all time record high for October is 91. Looks like that has a very real chance of falling next week. Anytime an all-time record falls that is a fairly big deal. Looks like the first three days of October will be records. That would make for seven record highs in a row to fall. To me that probably makes this particular air mass a rival of 1954. I would be surprise if that is the last record high. Looks like some wild swings are on the way if the GFS and Euro operational are correct. I do think the weeks-on-end of record high temps are likely done. However, I do think that 2-3 spells of extreme heat are possible in front of some fairly strong cold fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 39 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: TRI set its eighth record high for September today it appears - always have to wait a couple of days for it to be officially in the books. Tomorrow the high is forecast to be 90 so that would be a ninth if it verifies. What is even more interesting is that TRI's all time record high for October is 91. Looks like that has a very real chance of falling next week. Anytime an all-time record falls that is a fairly big deal. Looks like the first three days of October will be records. That would make for seven record highs in a row to fall. To me that probably makes this particular air mass a rival of 1954. I would be surprise if that is the last record high. Looks like some wild swings are on the way if the GFS and Euro operational are correct. I do think the weeks-on-end of record high temps are likely done. However, I do think that 2-3 spells of extreme heat are possible in front of some fairly strong cold fronts. Didnt think we'd get close to 98 but we tied the record today,next few days looks like records will go down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Still really weird as Carver mentioned 1954,this was like the the start of a long lived LaNina that went into a strong LaNina into the winter of 1955.Seems like right now as i posted on the ENSO thread seems like we could get into a Nino pattern vs a Nina upcoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 30, 2019 Author Share Posted September 30, 2019 37 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Still really weird as Carver mentioned 1954,this was like the the start of a long lived LaNina that went into a strong LaNina into the winter of 1955.Seems like right now as i posted on the ENSO thread seems like we could get into a Nino pattern vs a Nina upcoming Yeah, weird heat wave for sure. This is likely a once in 100 year event. Very rare. I think the colder temps near South America are really influencing the pattern here. When those showed up, it got exceptionally hot. I also think that kink in the jet stream over the NW(seems perpetual) is forcing a SE ridge that wouldn't otherwise be there in that extreme. That said, I do think the same drivers that are forcing extreme heat(-NAO right now included) will bring a different result as the seasons change. The weak Nino looks like a very Modoki look to me. What is weird is that kink in the jet stream started showing up on models, especially the Euro, a couple of years before it actually verified. It kept showing a trough popping up under an Alaskan ridge. So, I think what many thought was a bias by the Euro was a pattern that was very close to that kink. Now, we have it. Thankfully the changing wavelengths of fall should at least jostle the current pattern. The SOI really tanked during August and September and the daily contribution is near neutral today. Tons of conflicting signals and have been for about a year. It is almost like the climate has had a base Nina state since the last super Nino. Anyway, definitely agree that anomalous wx has been afoot since last December. My gut tells me this long lasting pattern will eventually break beginning next weekend and take about 3-4 weeks to break it down. But I could be easily wrong. Many wx models keep trying to break the pattern down, but it doesn't verify....likely just too quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, weird heat wave for sure. This is likely a once in 100 year event. Very rare. I think the colder temps near South America are really influencing the pattern here. When those showed up, it got exceptionally hot. I also think that kink in the jet stream over the NW(seems perpetual) is forcing a SE ridge that wouldn't otherwise be there in that extreme. That said, I do think the same drivers that are forcing extreme heat(-NAO right now included) will bring a different result as the seasons change. The weak Nino looks like a very Modoki look to me. What is weird is that kink in the jet stream started showing up on models, especially the Euro, a couple of years before it actually verified. It kept showing a trough popping up under an Alaskan ridge. So, I think what many thought was a bias by the Euro was a pattern that was very close to that kink. Now, we have it. Thankfully the changing wavelengths of fall should at least jostle the current pattern. The SOI really tanked during August and September and the daily contribution is near neutral today. Tons of conflicting signals and have been for about a year. It is almost like the climate has had a base Nina state since the last super Nino. Anyway, definitely agree that anomalous wx has been afoot since last December. My gut tells me this long lasting pattern will eventually break beginning next weekend and take about 3-4 weeks to break it down. But I could be easily wrong. Many wx models keep trying to break the pattern down, but it doesn't verify....likely just too quick. Makes you ponder about global warming,just saying,Everything seems out of sync Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 30, 2019 Author Share Posted September 30, 2019 9 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Makes you ponder about global warming,just saying,Everything seems out of sync No idea. Matches the AMO cycle nearly perfectly though. Still have a few years to go before it flips "I think." Interestingly the month of March has had several BN months during the past several years, including this one at TRI. Seems like September is now more of a continuation of summer and that March is more of an extension of February - D'Aleo had a discussion about that last weekI think. Fairly interesting. Plus there is cold in NA...it is just not here. 40" of snow in western Montana over the weekend. I will say that weekend snowstorms are an interesting phenomenon as well...so many occur on the weekend. I am using the observation thread to document wx events up here as well. MRX data is such a mess, I can barely use it - especially when it comes to data about historic snow totals. Hopefully, we can all refer back to threads like these and see what the weather actually was...Even though John is probably 100 miles away as a crow flies from my house, I still like his personal records as I trust those more. It will be interesting to see what happens when this pattern flips....even if the balancing of the temperature scale is tilted slightly towards warmer, the flip of this pattern could be fairly chilly in terms of balancing things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Had another bout of moderate rain today. Enough that the roads were still wet in shady areas hours later. Kept the temperature down in the 80s here again today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 1, 2019 Author Share Posted October 1, 2019 TRI did not set a record high yesterday as far as I know as some cloud cover moved in later in the afternoon and suppressed temps just enough so as they did not meet record levels. That said, September of 2019 featured eight record highs during two blistering hot, non-consecutive weeks. 1954 is almost a carbon copy with eight as well and with similar spacing between the record heat. So, 16 of the record highs for September are held by two years which are 65 years apart. As hot as it was during September 2019 only one of the nine 1954 record highs was broken. September 1954 was truly a spectacular month for heat as it also holds the all-time September record of 100 which was not approached during 2019. Looks like the first four days of October have chances for records. The all-time record high for the month is 91. Pretty rare air to be able to break one of those, but that is exactly what is on the table. 1954 again holds several record highs in October. Will be interesting see what happens during our break from the extremes which begins on Friday and pushes well into next week. There is a chance that highs mid-week(of next week) may well be 20 degrees cooler than the same day of the previous week. Pretty interesting to see what happened during November 1954 as well. Don't think we go to that extreme, but we will see. Still sitting at about .1" of rain during the past 33 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 US National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee Well, we've gone and done it now. At 11:56 a.m., the temperature at the Nashville International Airport reached 95°, which makes today the warmest October day in the city's history. The previous record of 94° was set on October 1, 1953. In addition, this is the 96th time we have reached 90° or better in 2019, tying the 1954 record for most 90° days in a single year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 1, 2019 Author Share Posted October 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: US National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee Well, we've gone and done it now. At 11:56 a.m., the temperature at the Nashville International Airport reached 95°, which makes today the warmest October day in the city's history. The previous record of 94° was set on October 1, 1953. In addition, this is the 96th time we have reached 90° or better in 2019, tying the 1954 record for most 90° days in a single year. 95 at 11:56AM... Yikes!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 According to the Greeneville Sun, the UT Experiment Station recorded 0.24 inches of rain in September, which was 3.00 inches below normal for that location. My rain gauge recorded 0.20 yesterday, which brought my final September total to .24 as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 1, 2019 Author Share Posted October 1, 2019 TRI is at 92 which I think officially breaks the all-time record high for October. Looking forward to this heat ridge being gone. Ridges fine. Mega ridges - no. Math/Met living large with .24" of rain! J/K 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 1, 2019 Author Share Posted October 1, 2019 @mempho, how hot has it been in your area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Chattanooga 97 Monday beats October all-time. See if we can do it another day or two. What the hell? Go big or go home! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 US National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee The temperature at the Nashville International Airport has reached 98° for a second straight day. This obviously ties the all-time record high for October that was set yesterday, and breaks the record for October 2 by a whopping 7°. The previous record of 91° was set in 1953. Also, today is the 97th time we have reached 90° in 2019, which sets a new record for 90° days in a single year. We have one more day of extreme heat to endure before cooler, wetter weather makes it's long-overdue appearance. It's about to be fall, y'all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 I'm getting pretty fortunate regarding the heat. Sitting at 85 right now. It's even 90 in Crossville. I believe that may be their only 90 degree temp ever there. At least on record. They didn't have a station for some of the prior heatwaves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 3, 2019 Author Share Posted October 3, 2019 3 hours ago, Windspeed said: Impressive. Tomorrow will likely be worse and may set an all-time record for October that will not fall in our lifetimes and maybe not for another generation. The past couple of weeks is to heat what Jan 1985 was to cold. What is crazy is that Friday will be much cooler(by like ten degrees) than Thursday and still be within a couple of degrees of the record high for that day. Looks like next week should be awesome. Going to be 20-25 degrees cooler than tomorrow, maybe more. Shew, glad to see extended summer begin to ebb. Hoping that run of the 12z EPS holds. The 18z GEFS looked quite similar. Big trough just east of HI that should pop a -EPO. Fingers crossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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