Carvers Gap Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 Is the weenie reaction emoji new(button you click to like a post)? Maybe I have just missed it. That should be fun. LOL. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Is the weenie reaction emoji new(button you click to like a post)? Maybe I have just missed it. That should be fun. LOL. Yep, I love it already! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 I feel like going full weenie over the Euro, but I know that is extremely unlikely to unfold favorably for us. I'm going to minor weenie and cling onto the hopes of a dusting to an inch on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 What is the difference between the Euro Control and one of the 50 members in the Euro ensemble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, Wurbus said: What is the difference between the Euro Control and one of the 50 members in the Euro ensemble? I believe the control is a lower resolution run of the main model but not 100 percent sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: I believe the control is a lower resolution run of the main model but not 100 percent sure. Thanks. I thought it might be a higher resolution than the other members, but obviously not as high as the main. I guess that explains why it went bonkers on the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Saw yesterday MRX put a graphic out that said this was Knoxville's earliest 1" snowfall and it listed November 1st 2014 at Tri-Cities. I knew that I had 3 inches on October 31st 1993, and I remember at least north Knoxville having an inch or more. I looked it up and it shows a trace at Tyson, but it shows 1.3 inches at Tri-Cities. not sure how MRX missed 1993. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 13, 2019 Author Share Posted November 13, 2019 John, I am always thankful for your records. 2014 missed my back yard. I had to go check the obs thread. LOL. Fortunately I posted there. Missed on Sandy as well. Good find on the 93 obs. That turned out to be a cold winter as you have noted. That is the winter that I always forget was cold. I have been asking folks in this area if they remember getting an inch or more is snow this early...it has been a long time - I think. I was was living at Papermill in Knoxville in ‘93...so I have no idea if Kingsport cashed in. Seems like lately we have been getting more than the airport...For many years, Kingsport was always much lower than the surrounding county, partly due to the river I am sure and partly due to industry. These days we seem to be on par. Now, SW VA where @1234snow lives and @Daniel Boone and @BlunderStorm...that is a money pot up there. Carter’s Valley northward is just gold. I spent the winter of 85 in Carter’s Valley. Twenty something below zero and snow on the ground for months. I can remember sitting in Saturday snowday make-up school watching it snow!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Euro weeklies look awful. Hopefully that is an awesome sign!!!! Last year it seemed like reality was the opposite of what they foretold: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 15, 2019 Author Share Posted November 15, 2019 Don't sweat the small stuff. Temp anomalies on the Euro Weeklies have had a severe warm bias for many months. The bias begins after week 2. They must have monkeyed with the algorithm. The 500 pattern doesn't look to bad to me until mid-late December which is after d28. The Weeklies have been pretty awful past week 3. Also, the Euro run from this morning was pretty awful. The Weeklies are only as good as the run they are derived from.All of that said...I do have a warm December as part of my ideas, so I probably can't complains. I don't think a warm December is a slam dunk though. The GEFS has done a much better job of recognizing cold patterns. It has flipped back cold for the past two runs. The EPS also has erroneously tried to warm the current pattern several times. I don't trust the GEFS, but the EPS has been equally bad if not worse. It seems like some sort of BN heights are going to establish for a short amount of time in the Southwest(a few days...maybe even a week or two). That said, the Euro also has a bias of not being able to get energy out of the SW - like ever. It just sits there. Need to keep an eye on the Greenland Block. If it forms...it won't go as quickly as forecasted IMHO. That said, HM has been banging the drum the Aleutian low is going to be a driver here. I think that has potential to be the most important driver early during winter. Keep in mind that the Weeklies completely missed the November cold pattern...almost a total whiff. The EPS has been playing catch-up for about four weeks. The only danger is that the GEFS is always cold....makes it tough to find the pattern change to warm if it occurs. My money for now is on the GEFS, though I never really discount the Euro - but it has really struggled to see much cold at all in NA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Euro weeklies look awful. Hopefully that is an awesome sign!!!! Last year it seemed like reality was the opposite of what they foretold: Here's the control,end of the run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 15, 2019 Author Share Posted November 15, 2019 Man...if the Weeklies had run from the 0z run.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 I've seen Twitter thrown around a few times in conversation on our subforum, and I'm active again after a long hiatus. @wxmatt if anyone is interested in sporadic bad weather takes! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hilton01 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 I don't know what it means but I have never seen the song birds so completely changed into their full mating colors so early in the year. Early winter? Early spring? They are stunningly brilliant right now whatever it means. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just when I think the GFS can't surprise me, it does. One of the more bizarre looks for the pattern over North America I've ever seen at the end of its run. Almost like it is trying to set up the same pattern that caused flooding last Feb. but with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Just when I think the GFS can't surprise me, it does. One of the more bizarre looks for the pattern over North America I've ever seen at the end of its run. Almost like it is trying to set up the same pattern that caused flooding last Feb. but with snow. Just put in an order for gopher wood to Amazon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 GFS is like those Choose Your Own Adventure books. Remember those growing up? They are awesome books. For a weather model, not really. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 27 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: GFS is like those Choose Your Own Adventure books. Remember those growing up? They are awesome books. For a weather model, not really. Glad you are feeling better, Jeff. Just curious, did you take the flu shot this year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 22, 2019 Author Share Posted November 22, 2019 4 hours ago, nrgjeff said: GFS is like those Choose Your Own Adventure books. Remember those growing up? They are awesome books. For a weather model, not really. Awesome. LOL. That run looked like it was running for office...promised something to every region of the country, and no way it is going to deliver. 12z GEFS looked steady though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 GFS is like the old Bullwinkle and Rocky Cartoon.Hey Rocky"Watch me pull cold weather out my hat" Again !!!But that trick never works 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Gotta get that flu shot Jeff like Carver said.My daughter has had bronchitis and of course she shared the wealth with me,finally feeling better today.My wife was going to work Sunday in Maryville and a kamikazee deer took aim at our new car on I-40.Progressive said the estimate so far was 6 grand to fix but would let us know the total amount at least it's no-fault but glad she didn't wreck,i know i'd have freaked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 23, 2019 Author Share Posted November 23, 2019 2 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Gotta get that flu shot Jeff like Carver said.My daughter has had bronchitis and of course she shared the wealth with me,finally feeling better today.My wife was going to work Sunday in Maryville and a kamikazee deer took aim at our new car on I-40.Progressive said the estimate so far was 6 grand to fix but would let us know the total amount at least it's no-fault but glad she didn't wreck,i know i'd have freaked out Man, missed you during the latter half of this week. Been too quiet on the forum. Hate to hear that about the deer. That is scary stuff. There are loads in my neighborhood. Around hunting season in my area, they frequent road areas and back yards. And yeah, it would be hard not just to put it in the ditch if one smashed into the car...good job on her part to keep it in the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Man, missed you during the latter half of this week. Been too quiet on the forum. Hate to hear that about the deer. That is scary stuff. There are loads in my neighborhood. Around hunting season in my area, they frequent road areas and back yards. And yeah, it would be hard not just to put it in the ditch if one smashed into the car...good job on her part to keep it in the road. Been nothing but a crappie week for us,not only a kid being sick and a deer hitting our car but our fridge went out and we lost everything in it,been nothing but a suckie week.Luckily we have home owner insurance that covers the fridge is the only thing good about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 23, 2019 Author Share Posted November 23, 2019 15 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Been nothing but a crappie week for us,not only a kid being sick and a deer hitting our car but our fridge went out and we lost everything in it,been nothing but a suckie week.Luckily we have home owner insurance that covers the fridge is the only thing good about it. That is pretty craptastic, but glad you are back! Hopefully this week will be smoother. I had a similar week about two weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 23, 2019 Author Share Posted November 23, 2019 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: The Tennessee subform rocking impressive metaphors this week. Pretty sure I will be laughing about Jeff's quote (about adventure books and the GFS) for a long time. And I will also be using the phrase in that tweet again - 99 cent bin superstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Be sure to put on some layers if you're going outside right now, lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 23, 2019 Author Share Posted November 23, 2019 21 minutes ago, Runman292 said: Be sure to put on some layers if you're going outside right now, lol. \ 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Yes we got flu shots. Mine may have mitigated a worse illness. I'm guessing this is the flu strain they didn't match perfectly, but better than nothing. Daughter was even milder, thankfully. Shows how the shot works differently for different people. Glad it did pretty well for her. Also remember the flu shot does nothing for a cold (different virus). Hopefully that puts the worst behind us for the season. In sports news Duke massively choked. Not sure whether to laugh or cry, since Kansas lost to Duke. Maui tournament rolls on with Kansas in the mix. Everyone have a happy Thanksgiving! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 27, 2019 Author Share Posted November 27, 2019 53 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Yes we got flu shots. Mine may have mitigated a worse illness. I'm guessing this is the flu strain they didn't match perfectly, but better than nothing. Daughter was even milder, thankfully. Shows how the shot works differently for different people. Glad it did pretty well for her. Also remember the flu shot does nothing for a cold (different virus). Hopefully that puts the worst behind us for the season. In sports news Duke massively choked. Not sure whether to laugh or cry, since Kansas lost to Duke. Maui tournament rolls on with Kansas in the mix. Everyone have a happy Thanksgiving! A childhood friend of mine sequences the DNA at the CDC for the flu vaccine. Crazy, huh? Some years they miss pretty badly. Some years are really good. As for basketball, going to take some lumps with the new team in Knoxville this year. With the #4 recruiting class in the country, help is on the way next year though. Hopefully, we can still grab an NCAA tourney spot this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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