MNstorms Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 A few active days here late in the season. Mostly wind event but tornadoes are possible. Tomorrow looks interesting imo. Warm sector setup with strong shear. Tomorrow: Southern MN: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 Holy convective contamination on that forecast sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted September 11, 2019 Author Share Posted September 11, 2019 35 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Holy convective contamination on that forecast sounding. Can you explain? Is it the the red bars on the left? There's soundings within a few miles without them but everything else about the same. Some things on soundings I'm still learning about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 26 minutes ago, Minnesota_storms said: Can you explain? Is it the the red bars on the left? There's soundings within a few miles without them but everything else about the same. Some things on soundings I'm still learning about. Yeah, the bars represent omega. Pretty strong/deep lift at that location at that time. You can get enhanced soundings (wind profiles) that may not be representative of conditions across the area. Can you post one without so much omega? Would be curious to see how those wind profiles look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted September 11, 2019 Author Share Posted September 11, 2019 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, the bars represent omega. Pretty strong/deep lift at that location at that time. You can get enhanced soundings (wind profiles) that may not be representative of conditions across the area. Can you post one without so much omega? Would be curious to see how those wind profiles look. I switched out the sounding in the opening post for you to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Tor warning now for Lake County Illinois and confirmed tornado in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 13 hours ago, Indystorm said: Tor warning now for Lake County Illinois and confirmed tornado in Michigan. It looks like no tornado was confirmed after all. This is why I'm not a fan of "radar confirmed" language in warnings like the one last night. Also not a fan of "law enforcement confirmed," as we learned during the most recent tor warning in Van Wert, OH. Turned out no one saw it, they just THOUGHT they saw it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 52 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said: It looks like no tornado was confirmed after all. This is why I'm not a fan of "radar confirmed" language in warnings like the one last night. Also not a fan of "law enforcement confirmed," as we learned during the most recent tor warning in Van Wert, OH. Turned out no one saw it, they just THOUGHT they saw it. In the Emergency Management world, we call them Sheriffnadoes. Law enforcement would make great eyes in the sky to supplement our spotters/chasers since they are already mobile, but they won't come to any trainings to know what to look for. They seem to have the mindset of "I don't need training, I already know everything I need to know about weather." This happens waaaayy too often. It causes the public to have lower confidence in our legitimate reports. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 1630z Outlook extends the marginal risk into Indiana and the slight risk to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 It's iffy this far east but if a storm can go this afternoon, it could be a little interesting near that warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 It's iffy this far east but if a storm can go this afternoon, it could be a little interesting near that warm front.You and I are due for something to roll through. Were you able to at least see the light show to the north last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Tor warning in N IL west of Rochelle. Seems like it’s trying to latch on the boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 55 minutes ago, King James said: You and I are due for something to roll through. Were you able to at least see the light show to the north last night? Yeah I saw it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 333 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central De Kalb County in north central Illinois... Southwestern Kane County in northeastern Illinois... * Until 415 PM CDT. * At 332 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Waterman, or near Shabbona, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Hinckley around 400 PM CDT. Sugar Grove, Elburn and Maple Park around 415 PM CDT. Including the following interstate... I-88 between mile markers 88 and 108. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4178 8887 4189 8888 4200 8846 4174 8848 TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 263DEG 15KT 4182 8880 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...1.00IN $$ Carlaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 6 hours ago, WxMatt21 said: It looks like no tornado was confirmed after all. This is why I'm not a fan of "radar confirmed" language in warnings like the one last night. Also not a fan of "law enforcement confirmed," as we learned during the most recent tor warning in Van Wert, OH. Turned out no one saw it, they just THOUGHT they saw it. I've had a met tell me that "radar confirmed" meant that a tornado was actually there whereas "radar indicated" meant only rotation was observed. It does get confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Sirens just went off in Eola. Looking pretty dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 ChiStorm on this?Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 There probably would've been multiple tornado reports by now if low level flow were stronger. Still can't rule something out of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 I think I have been under more warnings today than the entire summer season. On my second severe thunderstorm warning with a tornado warning slipped in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 I don’t hate our tornado chances here today. Maybe not the most likely but anything discrete is going to rotate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 Those severe storms blew. Nice mammatus clouds on the back end though of the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 On 9/12/2019 at 4:28 PM, kevlon62 said: ChiStorm on this? Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Delayed response, but I did end up chasing the tor warned storm on the 12th. I ended up intercepting the storm near Ashton, a bit after it had gone tor warned. Upon arriving, the storm was interacting with the warm front, and made a serious attempt at wrapping up and producing. Unfortunately, due to the warm front being in a NW/SE orientation, there was a small window of opportunity to produce..in which it did not succeed. I followed along east with the storm for a bit longer just in case it tried to do something interesting, before dropping off of it and ending the short chase. On the way home, another storm developed and went severe/tor warned south of the original storm. It was well north of the warm front, even so tried its best to do something...but ultimately failed as well. If the warm front would have been oriented more W-E instead of NW/SE, along with not retreating SW, activity likely would have been able to latch on to the boundary, and would have had a better chance at producing and would have had longevity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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