Torch Tiger Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: STW it is... good luck SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of intensifying thunderstorm development are expected this afternoon along and ahead of a cold front. Adequate instability along with very strong deep-layer winds will yield the potential for storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out mainly across southeast New York into southern New England. The severe risk will diminish from west to east across the region by early/mid-evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Laconia NH to 35 miles east southeast of Allentown PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2019 Author Share Posted September 4, 2019 13 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of intensifying thunderstorm development are expected this afternoon along and ahead of a cold front. Adequate instability along with very strong deep-layer winds will yield the potential for storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out mainly across southeast New York into southern New England. The severe risk will diminish from west to east across the region by early/mid-evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Laconia NH to 35 miles east southeast of Allentown PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Looks like a direct hit for my birds right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Looks like a severe storm in S VT, heading towards the CRV and LEB generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2019 Author Share Posted September 4, 2019 YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 13 minutes ago, yoda said: You were to conservative with the weenies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Eh, I think Scott may have been bang on the dot with his ob about dry air being an inhibitor today. Little getting going south of Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 meh, doesn't look to severe to me. A bit of wind and a shower ATM in PWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 New MD out: SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts continues across much of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 634. DISCUSSION...Cold front continues to progress eastward across the Northeast and recent surface analysis places the boundary from north-central VT southwestward to just east of ALB to CXY (in southeast PA). Northern portion of the line of thunderstorms initially along the front has accelerated slightly ahead of it while also losing intensity. This loss of intensity is likely tied reduced lift away from the front and less buoyancy from lower surface temperatures. Warm layer noted around 500-600 mb on the 18Z ALB sounding could also be contributing to reduced updraft strength. Southern portion of this line of has maintained its intensity and is moving into a slightly more favorable thermodynamic environment. Expectation is for this portion of the line to continue eastward, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Additional development is also possible farther south along the front across far northeast PA and northern NJ. These storms will also pose a risk for damaging wind gusts. A low tornado threat remains, but surface winds have been veering westerly well ahead of the front, further reducing any tornado potential. ..Mosier.. 09/04/2019 That "pfffft" noise that you hear is the sound of our tornado chances evaporating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2019 Author Share Posted September 4, 2019 yeah sfc winds more S to SSW just from looking at mesoanalysis obs so TOR threat much lowered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, ct_yankee said: That "pfffft" noise that you hear is the sound of our tornado chances evaporating... Yeah that dry air (and cap) around 500 mb is really hurting storms from really taking off. Unfortunately there is just enough low level instability that you can't quite on any given storm for severe. So we continue to watch the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: yeah sfc winds more S to SSW just from looking at mesoanalysis obs so TOR threat much lowered Set up is much more favorable for QLCS tornadoes than discrete stuff, but that means you need the line to bow out N/S. This SW to NE shape ain't going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2019 Author Share Posted September 4, 2019 15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Set up is much more favorable for QLCS tornadoes than discrete stuff, but that means you need the line to bow out N/S. This SW to NE shape ain't going to cut it. I just realized ALB did an 18z sounding...yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2019 Author Share Posted September 4, 2019 Although maybe morso up that way. OKX isn't as terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Hippy hit? @HIPPYVALLEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 4 hours ago, dryslot said: Just going by prior events this year, Every time i see SPC place us in a slight risk, It hasn't panned out for severe up here anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Beast of a storm heading this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Woah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Woah Might be fun soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I just realized ALB did an 18z sounding...yikes We all are for Dorian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I just realized ALB did an 18z sounding...yikes Garbage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: We all are for Dorian. are we toast here for any storms? radar looks paltry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Looks like some decent mid-level rotation on the cell SW of Springfield. Hey, it's something. Yeah, I know... There, did it for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Looks like Long Island gonna get smoked again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Looks like Long Island gonna get smoked again. The right split looks nice, but I think the hook stays offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 1 minute ago, ct_yankee said: The right split looks nice, but I think the hook stays offshore Think you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Should be a quick hit here. Some thunder. A gust or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Tornado warning just issued here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eire015 Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Yup, I just told my wife a she is in Enfield right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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