weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Quite the setup today (for September anyways). Pretty potent s/w trough moving through with sufficient wind shear and steep lapse rates. Question is with regards to instability, but appear there will be enough ingredients for some svr potential...including a tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Wiz was right on a few weeks ago................we watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 VT going to be hit nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Looks good in many areas, especially PSM-ORH-BDL on west. Pretty good mid level lapse rates and strong winds aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Upstate NY is pretty lit up for 830 in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2019 Author Share Posted September 4, 2019 I moved to a few minutes from BDL a few weeks back and I'm pissed I have to go to Danbury after work...although I guess Danbury may see some action...but timing does not look good for me to chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2019 Author Share Posted September 4, 2019 Really liking the trends. the ALB sounding shows decent lapse rates and good shear. HRRR has been quite interesting and consistent too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Just has a Special Weather Statement issued for a strong line of storms coming through Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Burlington VT 901 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019 NYZ034-035-VTZ005-006-008>012-017>019-041400- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Rutland-Eastern Rutland-Windsor-Eastern Chittenden-Western Chittenden-Western Addison-Washington-Lamoille-Eastern Addison-Orange- 901 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ESSEX... SOUTHWESTERN LAMOILLE...WEST CENTRAL ORANGE...ADDISON...NORTHERN RUTLAND...SOUTHERN CHITTENDEN...NORTHWESTERN WINDSOR AND WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES... At 901 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Newcomb to near Johnsburg. Movement was northeast at 60 mph. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... Middlebury, Vergennes, Rutland, Moriah, Crown Point, Westport, Minerva, Salisbury, Schroon Lake, Waterbury Village, Orwell, Addison, Shoreham, Ripton, Charlotte, Waltham, Bristol, Waitsfield, Rochester and Fayston. If you are on or near Lake Champlain, get out of the water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm. LAT...LON 4364 7343 4377 7335 4381 7340 4375 7406 4379 7405 4381 7410 4402 7414 4454 7266 4368 7271 4362 7330 4363 7337 4361 7338 4361 7342 TIME...MOT...LOC 1301Z 247DEG 57KT 4398 7405 4364 7399 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Booming heard here. We live right across the river from Stowe Country Club and their lightning horn has gone off a couple times this morning so far. Pretty rare to see so much lightning for 9am in the morning in September. The bulk is crossing the Champlain Valley now but a few pretty decent booms even out here in Stowe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Pretty high probs for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Plenty of sun this morning. Destabilization will not be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Kinda surprised this thread is so dead. Potent disturbance, remnant EML, solid shear, lapse rates and sufficient instability seem to augur well for severe today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 13 minutes ago, Hoth said: Kinda surprised this thread is so dead. Potent disturbance, remnant EML, solid shear, lapse rates and sufficient instability seem to augur well for severe today. Just going by prior events this year, Every time i see SPC place us in a slight risk, It hasn't panned out for severe up here anyways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 High prob a watch is coming for some though. Mesoscale Discussion 1924 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Areas affected...Portions of Central/Eastern NY...VT...NH...Western ME...MA...CT...and Far Northeast PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 041519Z - 041715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated over the next several hours. Damaging wind gusts are the primary severe threat but a couple tornadoes are also possible. A watch will eventually be needed for portions of the region. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front from SLK (in far northern NY) southwestward across central NY to just east of BFD (in far north-central PA). Radar trends have shown gradually increasing intensity of the cells along the front in south-central NY as they move into a diurnally destabilizing and modestly buoyant air mass downstream. Ongoing moisture advection has lead to an 2-4 degree increase in dewpoints downstream across the Hudson Valley and this general trends is expected to continue, leading to air-mass destabilization ahead of the front as far north as northeast NY, VT, NH, and western ME. At the same time, strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave trough moving into the Northeast will augment the frontal forcing already occurring. The combination of this increased forcing for ascent and air-mass destabilization is expected to result in expanding thunderstorm coverage over the next few hours. Even with the modest buoyancy, strong vertical shear will provide a kinematic environment supportive of organized storms. Primary threat will be damaging wind gusts associated with bowing line segments. However, given the southerly flow across southeastern NY and southern New England, some tornado threat also exists, especially with any more discrete cells ahead of the front. A watch will likely be needed by early afternoon, particularly over eastern NY and New England. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 09/04/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LAT...LON 41747693 42387681 43827469 44847352 44597056 42547148 41537287 41317494 41747693 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 It lacks deep rich boundary layer and there is dry air aloft, but any vigorous cells will have wind damage potential and sups possible. I'm not sure it will be widespread, but a few cells will pack a punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 SPC seems to believe there's a serious tornado threat, and it's hard to argue there isn't, especially wherever there's plenty of sunshine, like for instance here - always a good sign on a potential severe day... Think we'll finally see an actual tornado watch today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 A quick 0.45" of rain up here with the first round. Sun is back out but still a lot of clouds around. We'll see but I have a feeling we are done for the day. Good luck to you guys downwind of the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 18 minutes ago, ct_yankee said: SPC seems to believe there's a serious tornado threat, and it's hard to argue there isn't, especially wherever there's plenty of sunshine, like for instance here - always a good sign on a potential severe day... Think we'll finally see an actual tornado watch today? Nah. Doesn't mean we won't see a few tors though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 It is quite gusty already with clouds and sun atm, as long as the sun stays around I would assume things fire up later on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Wall to wall sunshine. Not a cloud to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Mostly cloudy, 72/63 here. Def not a svr-feeling day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2019 Author Share Posted September 4, 2019 If we can get some 3km CAPE to match this sfc vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Tornado watch or severe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 right to PDS hopefully 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2019 Author Share Posted September 4, 2019 11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Tornado watch or severe? Tornado watch seems playsible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 19 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: right to PDS hopefully I know you're being facetious, but it got me thinking, has NE ever had a PDS watch? I can't think of any, but my memory is not as encyclopedic as Will's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: Booming heard here. We live right across the river from Stowe Country Club and their lightning horn has gone off a couple times this morning so far. Pretty rare to see so much lightning for 9am in the morning in September. The bulk is crossing the Champlain Valley now but a few pretty decent booms even out here in Stowe. Lost power with that line earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, Hoth said: I know you're being facetious, but it got me thinking, has NE ever had a PDS watch? I can't think of any, but my memory is not as encyclopedic as Will's. Yes...we need a little hype around here though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2019 Author Share Posted September 4, 2019 12 minutes ago, Hoth said: I know you're being facetious, but it got me thinking, has NE ever had a PDS watch? I can't think of any, but my memory is not as encyclopedic as Will's. Think like May 16, 2003 or something around there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 STW it is... good luck -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0634.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 634 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Southern Maine New Hampshire Northern New Jersey Southern and Eastern New York Eastern Pennsylvania Rhode Island Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of intensifying thunderstorm development are expected this afternoon along and ahead of a cold front. Adequate instability along with very strong deep-layer winds will yield the potential for storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out mainly across southeast New York into southern New England. The severe risk will diminish from west to east across the region by early/mid-evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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