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Autumn 2019 Banter Thread


doncat
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Back on October 30, Social Media contained a forecast for an exceptionally cold pattern to lock in.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52511-autumn-2019-banter-thread/?do=findComment&comment=5338034

While there is always high uncertainty in the extended range, the probability of extreme patterns locking in for weeks at a time is relatively low (not zero, but low). Some examples include the exceptionally cold February of 2015 and the historically warm December of 2015.

In general, one needs strong evidence to make such forecasts. At the time, the forecast state of the teleconnections argued against the outcome.

Here's the forecast and the actual outcome:

Nov16-302019-Temp-Anomalies.jpg

11/16-30 temperatures for two select sites: NYC: 43.0° (2.3° below normal); ORD: Actual: 38.3° (0.6° above normal).

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