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Autumn 2019 Banter Thread


doncat
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Yeah bx, what a dumb question. I happen to have multiple degrees in microeconomics and find your idea preposterous. Frankly I'm offended that you failed to even consider the abysmal ROI and profit margins of a so-called "piano bar" before soliciting recommendations for one. Such an establishment is doomed to fail at best, and at worst symptomatic of the growing disconnect between consumer expectations and practical business concepts. In this essay I will attempt to expla

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14 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I’m so old that I saw him at MSG before everyone sees now him at MSG.  Didn’t you ask this same question last holiday season as well?  Is it for a date night, do I recall that correctly?

Ya. Never found an answer. Found some piano bars that have had holiday performances, and the same with jazz clubs. Seems theres no in between between that and the Rolfs type places that decorate but are insanely crowded all the time. The rooftop bar at Eataly is awesome, but i dont recall them playing christmas music.

 

and we saw his last concert before he went to rehab a while back lol

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Back on October 30, I noted a Social Media forecast suggesting that the kind of severe cold expected later this week would 'lock into place.'

At the time, I noted that the idea of such severe cold locking into place was not supported by the forecast teleconnections or latest very long-range guidance.
The posted map for the conditions suggested to lock in showed mean temperatures of 8° or more below normal in Chicago and New York City.

My conclusion was as follows: ...the coldest weather of the season so far is likely to develop beginning in early November with perhaps the strongest shot of cold reaching the East during the second week of the month. However, even allowing for uncertainty, there is little support for the idea that the notable cold shown at the end of the GEFS will lock in. Considering pattern persistence, the warming might be somewhat slower than modeled, but definitive language about severe cold locking in does not fairly represent things.

After the first 10 days, here's what the model guidance shows for the November 16-30 mean temperatures:

Chicago: 36.5° (1.2° below normal)
New York City: 46.8° (0.9° above normal)

In short, the guidance is now showing nothing approximating the severe cold that was supposed to lock into place.

Note: Depending which model is used, the numbers may fluctuate. Beyond the forecast horizon of each guidance, normal readings were assumed for the calculations.
Additional updates and a final verification will be provided. The main takeway remains: One should not forecast long periods of extremes without strong support for such an outcome.

 

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On 11/12/2019 at 2:45 PM, donsutherland1 said:

FWIW, CBS Radio (880 am) is saying tomorrow’s record low in New York City is 22 degrees set in 1873. It is not.

The record is 24 degrees from 1986.

 

huh ABC was saying the record is from 1873 and is 22 degrees too?

what weather station are they using for their info?

 

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On 11/10/2019 at 8:35 PM, qg_omega said:

Seeing a lot of similarities to last winter with cold / warmth and rain / cold

It is too early yet.

Let’s see

We have an active storm track and prolonged cold air if we look at Nov. 

I am really curious what the next month holds. It will tell us a lot

 

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