Autumn 2019 Banter Thread

[LibertyBell]

22 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

UHI has made a contribution. The sun, though, should have a small net negative contribution in recent years given the slight decrease in solar irradiance. New York City is also affected by the increase in sea surface temperature anomalies, as well. But rising greenhouse gas forcing has also driven the observed warming trend (larger role more recently). Natural variability is occurring within the context of growing greenhouse gas forcing.

No disagreement on the role politics has played in skewing perceptions.

the amount of annual rainfall and higher dew points are going up rapidly too

[LibertyBell]

On 10/30/2019 at 9:47 PM, donsutherland1 said:

The record warm October will follow a record warm September. The September 2019 mean temperature was 85.2°. The prior September record was 84.8°, which was set in 2017.

Miami will also easily register the warmest September-October period on record with a mean temperature near 84.3°. The existing record is 83.1°, which was set in 2009. 8 of the 10 warmest September-October periods have occurred 2000 or later and 5 of the 10 warmest September-October periods have occurred 2010 or later. Records in Miami go back to 1895.

Such warmth is consistent with the expected outcomes from anthropogenic climate change.

the rise in sea levels and king tides flooding major cities has become pretty consistent.

hell, babylon was flooded with the event during the week even though the winds weren't all that strong.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 10/30/2019 at 7:33 PM, rclab said:

Sort of like the obesity epidemic. Even though it’s right in front, back and all around you, it’s still difficult to see. As always .....

America is run by large corporations that prey on people's perceptions.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 10/30/2019 at 6:42 PM, forkyfork said:

another sign of expanding summer

 

Summer is four months here right now (JJAS) and with the last 80s now occurring in the first half of October, might be expanding into October also.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 10/30/2019 at 3:16 PM, donsutherland1 said:

As October concludes, Chicago recorded an October 30 daily record snowfall of 1.2". Monthly record low temperatures were reported in many parts of the Northern Rockies.

Perhaps in response, increasingly sensational forecasts are now being pushed on Social Media. Often, such hype concerns snowstorms. IMO, one needs to point out such extremes when support is lacking, as such calls can skew perceptions about what is likely to occur and, afterward, lead the public's to blame forecasters (most of whom did not call for such extremes) when those extremes don't materialize.

Below is an example of the kind of severe cold that is being forecast to lock in (notice the explicit language about the severe cold shown on the map locking in). I have also included the forecast teleconnections toward mid-November.

Most of the ensemble members suggest the development of an AO+/NAO+/PNA- to neutral pattern toward mid-November.

Let's take a look at two major cities where the tweet suggests cold temperatures of 8° or more below normal will lock in: Chicago and New York City.
Such teleconnections would suggest that the cold shown at the end of the extended range would abate.

Here's the data for November 16-30 (1981-2010):

AO+/NAO+/PNA (-0.5 to +0.5*): Chicago: 40.0°; New York City: 48.6°
1981-2010 Base Normals: Chicago: 37.7°; New York City: 45.9°

*-A PNA- would be even warmer.

Put simply, historic experience with the forecast state of the teleconnections argues that the severe cold shown in the tweeted map would not lock in for the second half of the month.

What does the very long-range guidance show?

Here are the week 3 and 4 CFSv2 forecasts:

The October 28 0z EPS weeklies also show warm anomalies developing after mid-month across almost the entire CONUS.

In sum, the coldest weather of the season so far is likely to develop beginning in early November with perhaps the strongest shot of cold reaching the East during the second week of the month. However, even allowing for uncertainty, there is little support for the idea that the notable cold shown at the end of the GEFS will lock in. Considering pattern persistence, the warming might be somewhat slower than modeled, but definitive language about severe cold locking in does not fairly represent things.

All said, will Chicago and New York see November 16-30 with a mean temperature of  8° or more below normal? That scenario is very unlikely.

Could it be cooler than normal? Possibly.

Could it be warmer than normal? That's more likely than not given the forecast teleconnections and the long-range guidance.

Clearly, all forecasts are subject to error and all forecasters make errors. My point is that one shouldn't assume extreme scenarios without strong support for such outcomes. IMO, support for severe cold to lock in is limited (teleconnections + long-range guidance).

Crazy that it was +33 in Barrow, Alaska while it was -44 in Utah!  Talk about jet stream extremes!

 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I wonder how long until cold-hardy palm trees can survive up here? 

The Windmill Palms are becoming popular on Long Island. I see some people planting them along the GSB. They wrap them before the winter. There have also been palms around the LB boardwalk near Edwards and Riverside.

https://www.islandwidepalmtrees.com/windmill-palms.html

 

[rclab]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I wonder how long until cold-hardy palm trees can survive up here? 

Providing my post thirty borrowed time doesn’t run out; a fertile coconut palm in my postage stamp UHI caressed back yard may be useful. I could have all the ingredients for a virgin colada  without have to leave the premises. That is, of course, if the squirrels, after getting over their culture shock, allow me to harvest one. As always....

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Windmill Palms are becoming popular on Long Island. I see some people planting them along the GSB. They wrap them before the winter. There have also been palms around the LB boardwalk near Edwards and Riverside.

https://www.islandwidepalmtrees.com/windmill-palms.html

 

having a wet milder winter with more snowfall might actually be beneficial to plants like these since snow insulates them from the cold.

[donsutherland1]

After a record warm October with a mean temperature of 83.5°, which would have ranked as the 10th warmest September on record, and a record warm September-October period with a mean temperature of 84.3°, Miami set a daily record high temperature of 91° to start November. The previous record of 89° was set in 1958.

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Windmill Palms are becoming popular on Long Island. I see some people planting them along the GSB. They wrap them before the winter. There have also been palms around the LB boardwalk near Edwards and Riverside.

https://www.islandwidepalmtrees.com/windmill-palms.html

 

They become eyesores in the winter because they all die. I have no clue how the city doesn’t put them somewhere to survive the winter. What a waste of money. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

having a wet milder winter with more snowfall might actually be beneficial to plants like these since snow insulates them from the cold.

 

43 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

They become eyesores in the winter because they all die. I have no clue how the city doesn’t put them somewhere to survive the winter. What a waste of money. 

They probably didn’t bother to wrap them like this company does.

 

[forkyfork]

we have native plants that can perfectly survive our winters

[uncle W]

I always wanted to move to Florida for various reasons one being my brother lives there...I guess if I live long enough I'll be living in Florida without moving...

[LibertyBell]

49 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

They become eyesores in the winter because they all die. I have no clue how the city doesn’t put them somewhere to survive the winter. What a waste of money. 

I also get pretty upset at the cutting down of a tree to put in Rockefeller Center.  Why not just put a fake tree there or grow a real tree?  I know we've been trying to get rid of UHI pollution by greening up rooftops, it would be nice to see more of the city go green.

[LibertyBell]

lol Lee Goldberg said the high next Friday will be 44 degrees, that means a guaranteed below freezing low at night, even in the middle of UHI

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

we have native plants that can perfectly survive our winters

I personally like the new hardier crape myrtles that have really taken off around here. While the palms are ok, they tend to stand out a bit when they are around our native plants. But I draw the line a bamboo. Some people plant that all over their property in Long Beach. It grows sideways underground and runs right into the side of your house. It was the most difficult plant removal that I ever encountered.

https://hicksnurseries.com/uncategorized/can-i-grow-crape-myrtle-on-long-island/

[Cfa]

Governor’s an idiot.

I mean, it’s good that he acknowledges climate change, but this sort of stuff is fuel for the denialist types.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Governor’s an idiot.

I mean, it’s good that he acknowledges climate change, but this sort of stuff is fuel for the denialist types.

As long as he bans more pipelines and fracking, I dont care what he says.  The denialist types can move to another state where they get buried in fracking quakes or get blown up in pipeline explosions.

 

I dont like that he said that, but the denialist types are far more ignorant, so he's just communicating to them on their level.

 

 

[Cfa]

9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I wonder how long until cold-hardy palm trees can survive up here? 

They already do survive up here.

I took both of these in Manhattan back in August:

Windmill Palm: (tolerates down to 5°F)

 

Dwarf Palmetto: (tolerates below 0°F)

 

The most cold tolerant palm though is the Needle Palm, that thing can take -10°F, there was one growing at the Brooklyn Botanical Garden since the 1960’s until they removed it like 2 years ago as part of a redesign. It’s native to the Southeast (along with the Dwarf Palmetto) and given its cold tolerance it’s been theorized that its native range once included areas further north and that it was only pushed south due to the glacial maximums.

[doncat]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

As long as he bans more pipelines and fracking, I dont care what he says.  The denialist types can move to another state where they get buried in fracking quakes or get blown up in pipeline explosions.

 

I dont like that he said that, but the denialist types are far more ignorant, so he's just communicating to them on their level.

 

 

Take the politics elsewhere.

[Cfa]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

we have native plants that can perfectly survive our winters

We sit at both the northern and southern ranges for a lot of plant species. No one pays attention to native plants so it all looks the same, but the juxtaposition of northern and southern plant species is interesting if you know or can identify what it is you’re looking at.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, doncat said:

Take the politics elsewhere.

If you dont like it, dont read it- it's that simple.

 

I'm more concerned with the word "superstorm."  There is no such thing.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

I always wanted to move to Florida for various reasons one being my brother lives there...I guess if I live long enough I'll be living in Florida without moving...

You have to really enjoy heat and humidity to live year round in Florida. But it’s nice for vacations during the cooler parts of the year.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You have to really enjoy heat and humidity to live in Florida. But it’s nice for vacations during the cooler parts of the year.

 

I hate humidity.  Arizona is a lot better (much cleaner air too.)  Flagstaff is a light pollution free city!

Colorado if you want the best of all worlds (snow, clean air, low humidity, etc.)

 

[doncat]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

As long as he bans more pipelines and fracking, I dont care what he says.  The denialist types can move to another state where they get buried in fracking quakes or get blown up in pipeline explosions.

 

I dont like that he said that, but the denialist types are far more ignorant, so he's just communicating to them on their level.

 

 

Didn't really mean to single you out...just a general reminder.

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I hate humidity.  Arizona is a lot better (much cleaner air too.)  Flagstaff is a light pollution free city!

Colorado if you want the best of all worlds (snow, clean air, low humidity, etc.)

 

Those are gorgeous parts of the country. The Corral Bluff fossil finds highlighted on Nova this week was pretty amazing. 
 

https://www.pbs.org/video/rise-of-the-mammals-zuzg8t/

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, doncat said:

Didn't really mean to single you out...just a general reminder.

it's a banter thread though.  Either way i apologize for the harshness

anyway my biggest issue with his statement, aside from his obvious lying was the usage of the word "superstorm."  It upsets me to no end, some meteorologists use it and it isn't even a meteorology term.  The insurance industry also used it as an excuse to try and give lower payments to victims of the storm.  I also didn't like how hurricane warnings were dropped just as the storm was about to make landfall.  I know we've reformed the system to fix it, but I think we should use the word hurricane for any storm with winds of 75+ mph and use the word tropical hurricane when referring specifically to storms that have a tropical structure.  I say this because the word hurricane has a special weight with the public that "storm warning" does not.  Also, we have tropical storm warnings and storm warnings, so we should have tropical hurricane warnings and hurricane warnings.

In the same vein, we should use the term blizzard warning to refer to any snowstorm that dumps 12 inches or more snow over 24 hours.  Winter storm warning is not a strong enough term for these storms.  The midwest-style blizzards that are caused more by wind rather than snowfall amounts should get a ground blizzard warning, since they really are ground blizzards.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Those are gorgeous parts of the country. The Corral Bluff fossil finds highlighted on Nova this week was pretty amazing. 
 

https://www.pbs.org/video/rise-of-the-mammals-zuzg8t/

omg I saw that too!  They showed how mammals went from mouse size to wolf size within 300,000 years after the mass extinction event at the end of the Cretaceous!  All from eating a legume-based diet.

It gave us a window into how life may evolve on other planets too.

 

 

[uncle W]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You have to really enjoy heat and humidity to live year round in Florida. But it’s nice for vacations during the cooler parts of the year.

 

with the arthritis I have I need all the heat I can get...My wife and I watch our grand kids so I'll be here for the duration...

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, uncle W said:

with the arthritis I have I need all the heat I can get...My wife and I watch our grand kids so I'll be here for the duration...

I think you'd like lower humidity heat better