mattinpa Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 On 9/22/2019 at 8:34 PM, Snow88 said: Just got engaged today =) Congrats Anthony and good luck. Hopefully that was the last 90 degree day today until at least May. I am so ready for crisp weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Global Politics and the Weather: https://www.newsmax.com/finance/peterorszag/local-weather-forecasts-global/2019/07/31/id/926702/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Howard Stern is using a sound bite from the climate girl “how dare you?” throughout the show today Very funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 The Euro may become even more the go-to model once the NAM stops running. Could be quite a challenge for the new model to handle the NAM’s strengths. Just look at the new biases that poped up when the GFS was recently upgraded. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/ https://mobile.twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1171950138698473478 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro may become even more the go-to model once the NAM stops running. Could be quite a challenge for the new model to handle the NAM’s strengths. Just look at the new biases that poped up when the GFS was recently upgraded. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/ https://mobile.twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1171950138698473478 Like the article states...before the Nam is discontinued, improvements to the gfs etc. need to be made. I agree with the strengths of the nam that are mentioned, and find it most accurate for 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 3 hours ago, doncat said: Like the article states...before the Nam is discontinued, improvements to the gfs etc. need to be made. I agree with the strengths of the nam that are mentioned, and find it most accurate for 2m temps. Let’s hope that they keep to that promise. We have seen past model upgrades before the bugs were worked out. It does look like it could be a very challenging task. Launching new models isn’t easy. https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/web/environmental-modeling-center/fv3-convective-allowing-forecast-system While the NAM does very well with low temperatures and CAD, it runs too cool with the high temperatures like we saw yesterday. The Euro seems to have a better handle on high temperatures. But it was even a few degrees too low yesterday with the strong WAA and dry conditions ahead of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 Love the new look. Congrats guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 On 9/24/2019 at 12:43 PM, doncat said: Like the article states...before the Nam is discontinued, improvements to the gfs etc. need to be made. I agree with the strengths of the nam that are mentioned, and find it most accurate for 2m temps. At this rate the NAM will be around for 5 more years at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Cut Bank Montana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 6 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Cut Bank Montana I'll wait for December thanks. Still waiting for the seas to calm down....waiting...waiting....thoughts turning to retirement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Does anyone know where I can get the snow accumulation amounts for the Montana blizzard? Very curious I’d say cut bank got hammered with at least 24 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 I saw a snow plower today Winter is coming !!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: I saw a snow plower today Winter is coming !!! Good looking out, Anthony. Better to be prepared nice and early to deal with the salt drifts.As always ..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwhiteout Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 On 9/29/2019 at 10:59 AM, NYCweatherNOW said: Cut Bank Montana I would love to see this in mid December. Can't imagine seeing that the end of September! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 49 minutes ago, LVwhiteout said: I would love to see this in mid December. Can't imagine seeing that the end of September! So would I but locally it may be difficult, ongoing, to see it any time at all. As always ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 2, 2019 Author Share Posted October 2, 2019 Sept finished here with a +1.2° temp departure. Less of a positive departure than the urban sites with the dry good radiating nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 2 hours ago, doncat said: Sept finished here with a +1.2° temp departure. Less of a positive departure than the urban sites with the dry good radiating nights. You were one of the few cooler spots. Even the more rural HPN finished at +2.6 like EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 4 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Here I am looking for any posted tidbits for the upcoming winter and its 95 freaking degrees in Newark. Unreal. Well, ENSO is neutral. So not really going to have any easy calls based on that index. That leaves the door open for other drivers to take the wheel, so to speak. I'm actually a much bigger fan of the SST layout than I was last year. Cooler waters near Indonesia as compared to last year for one, which I think was one factor that worked against last year. It'll be interesting to see what happens. What I find interesting right now is the ++PMM. Curious to see how that evoles going forward. I'm putting this in banter because it didn't seem right in the other thread amongst all the 90's lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 My prediction for the winter is a 'COLD, STORMY ECONOMY'. A Negative Spending Index, A Positive Inflation Index, Low Confidence Voter/Consumer Influx from middle America, Tweeting in Phase 9!, and a Chief Meteorologist with an Omega Block in his head. LOL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 On 9/24/2019 at 1:22 AM, mattinpa said: Congrats Anthony and good luck. Hopefully that was the last 90 degree day today until at least May. I am so ready for crisp weather. It hit 95 here on the south shore and the heat index was 100! What I want to know is, is this the latest JFK has ever hit 95 and the latest they ever had a heat index of 100? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Well I'd call it a pretty great foliage season so far this year. Unless we get a hardcore wind event I think this will turn out to be one of the better ones of the decade around the Northeast. I haven't been north of I90 in the last week but it's been beautiful everywhere I've been. Hopefully it doesn't all go away before I can get out west of Binghamton and up to the Daks in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What? He’s gotta be a troll. I don’t know how people fall for this stuff so easily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 15 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: He’s gotta be a troll. I don’t know how people fall for this stuff so easily. He gon. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Beware. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwhiteout Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 On 10/3/2019 at 3:38 PM, CIK62 said: My prediction for the winter is a 'COLD, STORMY ECONOMY'. A Negative Spending Index, A Positive Inflation Index, Low Confidence Voter/Consumer Influx from middle America, Tweeting in Phase 9!, and a Chief Meteorologist with an Omega Block in his head. LOL! I think you nailed it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 Nothing can top last year. I never saw a peak color like that in NYC. Happened first week in Nov This year we already lost several trees to color and now brown (in northern burbs) So whatever is coming will be minus those trees that peaked last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 A timelapse I shot yesterday morning in the Catskills. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 4 hours ago, NycStormChaser said: A timelapse I shot yesterday morning in the Catskills. Impressive stuff man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 The following was posted on Twitter: https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1182331950318718978 While technically true, that is not a good use of the CFSv2. Several points are in order: First, the CFSv2 monthly forecasts are not typically skillful until 5-7 days out. Second, within 6 days, the CFSv2 had highlighted the potential for cold anomalies in the northern Rockies and Northern Plains. October 1-8, 2019 Temperature Anomalies: Third, if one applied the logic used to dismiss the CFSv2, which is not always accurate, it would be tantamount to judging the ECMWF's failure to forecast a significant storm from 5-days out when its forecasts from 72 hours and less were accurate. In general, there can be benefit to waiting for additional data before reaching conclusions. Model verification scores closer to events bear that out. Setting artificial cut-offs that deprive one of later data generally increases one's forecasting error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 How I see this winter shaping up for me on the weather forums. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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