LibertyBell Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 9 hours ago, doncat said: My station records show that it rained here from about 4 am to 11 am, with a changeover thereafter, during which 4.7" fell with 4" on the ground at midnight. Total precipitation was 1.80"...Temp during event got down to 32°. Early snowstorm jinx?...Snowfall rest of winter 4.3" lol. we had snow on the ground here in SW Nassau (1-2") too with temps near freezing in the middle of the day. But nothing like what areas just to the west got. If the storm had been slightly further to the east, would we all have been buried? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 10 hours ago, LibertyBell said: we had snow on the ground here in SW Nassau (1-2") too with temps near freezing in the middle of the day. But nothing like what areas just to the west got. If the storm had been slightly further to the east, would we all have been buried? marginal temps were the factor. if the storm had occurred even a month later the entire metro would have gotten 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 When it comes to Flood Insurance.................................................... NATURE LIKELY TO REACT FASTER THAN THE GOVERNMENT https://brooklyneagle.com/articles/2019/10/28/flirting-with-disaster-flood-zones-still-uninsured-years-after-sandy/ Of special interest to me: https://www.brooklynpaper.com/stories/42/44/bn-coney-island-flood-preparedness-2019-11-01-bk.html Meanwhile available funds go unspent: http://brooklyn.news12.com/story/41263270/city-comptroller-report-only-54-of-superstorm-sandy-funding-used Lack of a flood plan for Hunt's Pt. Market: https://thecity.nyc/2019/11/no-flooding-protections-in-store-for-citys-largest-food-hub.html btw: EDC is operated like a private company, but uses your tax dollars as the 'risk capitol' and regardless of how well any employee preforms, they must all go when a new Mayor comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 On 10/29/2019 at 5:52 AM, LibertyBell said: we had snow on the ground here in SW Nassau (1-2") too with temps near freezing in the middle of the day. But nothing like what areas just to the west got. If the storm had been slightly further to the east, would we all have been buried? Most of the precip that fell even in Long Beach was snow but little stuck. We could never get the depth on the grass more than a couple inches and the roads were on and off slushy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: Most of the precip that fell even in Long Beach was snow but little stuck. We could never get the depth on the grass more than a couple inches and the roads were on and off slushy. I was in the east end (Neptune ave) at the time and do not remember more then a coating on cars and grass. Interesting, with such extreme snow patterns in that one I wonder if being west of Long Beach road and with less bay between you and Lb island meant more snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I was in the east end (Neptune ave) at the time and do not remember more then a coating on cars and grass. Interesting, with such extreme snow patterns in that one I wonder if being west of Long Beach road and with less bay between you and Lb island meant more snow I remember it being enough to mostly cover grass at one point but never more than that, and when the precip was lighter it melted. My street got slushy at a couple of heavier points. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 As October concludes, Chicago recorded an October 30 daily record snowfall of 1.2". Monthly record low temperatures were reported in many parts of the Northern Rockies. Perhaps in response, increasingly sensational forecasts are now being pushed on Social Media. Often, such hype concerns snowstorms. IMO, one needs to point out such extremes when support is lacking, as such calls can skew perceptions about what is likely to occur and, afterward, lead the public's to blame forecasters (most of whom did not call for such extremes) when those extremes don't materialize. Below is an example of the kind of severe cold that is being forecast to lock in (notice the explicit language about the severe cold shown on the map locking in). I have also included the forecast teleconnections toward mid-November. Most of the ensemble members suggest the development of an AO+/NAO+/PNA- to neutral pattern toward mid-November. Let's take a look at two major cities where the tweet suggests cold temperatures of 8° or more below normal will lock in: Chicago and New York City. Such teleconnections would suggest that the cold shown at the end of the extended range would abate. Here's the data for November 16-30 (1981-2010): AO+/NAO+/PNA (-0.5 to +0.5*): Chicago: 40.0°; New York City: 48.6° 1981-2010 Base Normals: Chicago: 37.7°; New York City: 45.9° *-A PNA- would be even warmer. Put simply, historic experience with the forecast state of the teleconnections argues that the severe cold shown in the tweeted map would not lock in for the second half of the month. What does the very long-range guidance show? Here are the week 3 and 4 CFSv2 forecasts: The October 28 0z EPS weeklies also show warm anomalies developing after mid-month across almost the entire CONUS. In sum, the coldest weather of the season so far is likely to develop beginning in early November with perhaps the strongest shot of cold reaching the East during the second week of the month. However, even allowing for uncertainty, there is little support for the idea that the notable cold shown at the end of the GEFS will lock in. Considering pattern persistence, the warming might be somewhat slower than modeled, but definitive language about severe cold locking in does not fairly represent things. All said, will Chicago and New York see November 16-30 with a mean temperature of 8° or more below normal? That scenario is very unlikely. Could it be cooler than normal? Possibly. Could it be warmer than normal? That's more likely than not given the forecast teleconnections and the long-range guidance. Clearly, all forecasts are subject to error and all forecasters make errors. My point is that one shouldn't assume extreme scenarios without strong support for such outcomes. IMO, support for severe cold to lock in is limited (teleconnections + long-range guidance). 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 another sign of expanding summer 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, forkyfork said: another sign of expanding summer Global warming is happening, I don’t get how people still try to tell me it’s not happening! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 32 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Global warming is happening, I don’t get how people still try to tell me it’s not happening! Sort of like the obesity epidemic. Even though it’s right in front, back and all around you, it’s still difficult to see. As always ..... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: another sign of expanding summer The record warm October will follow a record warm September. The September 2019 mean temperature was 85.2°. The prior September record was 84.8°, which was set in 2017. Miami will also easily register the warmest September-October period on record with a mean temperature near 84.3°. The existing record is 83.1°, which was set in 2009. 8 of the 10 warmest September-October periods have occurred 2000 or later and 5 of the 10 warmest September-October periods have occurred 2010 or later. Records in Miami go back to 1895. Such warmth is consistent with the expected outcomes from anthropogenic climate change. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 The latest big weather swings. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 14 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Global warming is happening, I don’t get how people still try to tell me it’s not happening! especially when you use data from years ago when Miami was a small town... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 16 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Global warming is happening, I don’t get how people still try to tell me it’s not happening! The problem is, it has become a political football. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Over the past 30 years (1990-2019), October has averaged 0.6 sigma above the 30-year moving average temperature and standard deviation in Miami. The 5 warmest Octobers on a standardized basis (30-year moving average) are: 1. 2019 +2.6 sigma 2. 2009 +2.2 sigma 3. 2002 +2.15 sigma 4. 1995 +2.0 sigma 5. 1969 +1.9 sigma No other Octobers were 1.8 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average. This data shows that since 2000, the extremely warm Octobers have become even more extreme even when the rising temperature trend is considered. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 17 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Global warming is happening, I don’t get how people still try to tell me it’s not happening! Or they're just playing stupid. Don't forget that we live in a world where anti-vaxxers and flat-earthers are a thing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Over the past 30 years (1990-2019), October has averaged 0.6 sigma above the 30-year moving average temperature and standard deviation in Miami. The 5 warmest Octobers on a standardized basis (30-year moving average) are: 1. 2019 +2.6 sigma 2. 2009 +2.2 sigma 3. 2002 +2.15 sigma 4. 1995 +2.0 sigma 5. 1969 +1.9 sigma No other Octobers were 1.8 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average. This data shows that since 2000, the extremely warm Octobers have become even more extreme even when the rising temperature trend is considered. the averages are going up in NYC faster than any time in recorded history...the minimums out doing the maximums...we can argue why its happening and I believe the expanding heat islands play a roll in the higher temperatures...plus other factors like the Sun...the average temperature in NYC went up about a degree on average in the 1890's...1930's...1990's...2010's...some of it can be traced to the development of Manhattan and the outer borough's...New Jersey is creating its own heat island with every parking lot being built...less sticks in the sticks...to bad it is a political football because politics ruin any cooperation finding a cure so to speak... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 7th storm is coming in further south on the gfs thanks to the epo press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 18 minutes ago, uncle W said: the averages are going up in NYC faster than any time in recorded history...the minimums out doing the maximums...we can argue why its happening and I believe the expanding heat islands play a roll in the higher temperatures...plus other factors like the Sun...the average temperature in NYC went up about a degree on average in the 1890's...1930's...1990's...2010's...some of it can be traced to the development of Manhattan and the outer borough's...New Jersey is creating its own heat island with every parking lot being built...less sticks in the sticks...to bad it is a political football because politics ruin any cooperation finding a cure so to speak... UHI has made a contribution. The sun, though, should have a small net negative contribution in recent years given the slight decrease in solar irradiance. New York City is also affected by the increase in sea surface temperature anomalies, as well. But rising greenhouse gas forcing has also driven the observed warming trend (larger role more recently). Natural variability is occurring within the context of growing greenhouse gas forcing. No disagreement on the role politics has played in skewing perceptions. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 The September and October temperature increase since 1981 is similar for local rural and urban locations. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: The September and October temperature increase since 1981 is similar for local rural and urban locations. Yes. That’s why it is quite clear that anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing is playing the larger role today. And that forcing will continue to increase in coming years/decades. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Counting down the days until snowman19 returns. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 The BN air that is coming in tomorrow could last all month, till the first week of December----and then quickly return. Our earliest snow this year in the City may occur near Nov. 14. This is from the CFSv2. Maybe that stratospheric warming weak or strong is going to start to play a role---as it always does during the cold air season. Really do not know if that possibility is somehow incorporated in these LR Analog Models or not. Some SW was occurring all summer w/o mention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Could someone please bring the SACRUS "STORM TRACKING IMAGES" back onto page 1, preferably within the top 5 topics? I fear it will eventually get lost, and is a great tracking tool for now-casting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 NYC records go back to 1869 and since 1900 when the outer boroughs were farm lands here are the average's for Sept. Oct. for Central Park...the average for both months were pretty steady with the 1940's and 50's being the high point...the 2010's is the warmest decade for both months...September by an alarming rate...the warming stops in November but starts up again in December... decade....Sept...Oct... 1900's.....68.1...57.2 1910's.....66.8...57.9 1920's.....67.8...56.8 1930's.....68.7...57.4 1940's.....68.7...58.7 1950's.....68.3...58.6 1960's.....67.7...58.2 1970's.....68.3...56.9 1980's.....68.6...57.0 1990's.....68.0...57.7 2000's.....68.6...57.0 2010's.....70.5...59.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 For those tracking the heat in Florida, today’s 91 degree temperature in Jacksonville is that city’s latest 90 degree temperature on record. The prior record was October 27, 2010 when the temperature reached 90. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. That’s why it is quite clear that anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing is playing the larger role today. And that forcing will continue to increase in coming years/decades. Yeah, effectively shifting the subtropical climate zone north into our area. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 19 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, effectively shifting the subtropical climate zone north into our area. I wonder how long until cold-hardy palm trees can survive up here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 On 10/30/2019 at 8:21 AM, jm1220 said: Most of the precip that fell even in Long Beach was snow but little stuck. We could never get the depth on the grass more than a couple inches and the roads were on and off slushy. The early season storm a year later was much better for us 8"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 21 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: For those tracking the heat in Florida, today’s 91 degree temperature in Jacksonville is that city’s latest 90 degree temperature on record. The prior record was October 27, 2010 when the temperature reached 90. I saw both Orlando (hit 91 yesterday, a national record) and Miami had their warmest Octobers on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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