mattie g Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Meteorological Fall is upon us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Is Mattie the new George BM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Recent CFS runs think the next month will feature slightly above normal temps and slightly below normal precip. So yeah, effin hot and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 2, 2019 Author Share Posted September 2, 2019 21 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Recent CFS runs think the next month will feature slightly above normal temps and slightly below normal precip. So yeah, effin hot and dry. Slightly above normal in September doesn’t imply hot to me, especially if the warmer anomalies happen later in the month. Either way, we know that, come the end of the month, some folks will be on the lookout for white rain at 384... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Slightly above normal in September doesn’t imply hot to me, especially if the warmer anomalies happen later in the month. Either way, we know that, come the end of the month, some folks will be on the lookout for white rain at 384... I was mostly just being facetious. Wouldn't surprise me if the general dryness continued for a while though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 23 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Recent CFS runs think the next month will feature slightly above normal temps and slightly below normal precip. So yeah, effin hot and dry. Fits the pattern of recent Septembers, with maybe not the extreme heat we have experienced recently, certainly the Western Atlantic waters are warm and Sept is normally not a wet month climo- wise. However, I would take a guess and say any real Sept. heat is short-lived. The NE PAc warm pool supports these High pressure visits we are getting and will continue to get for another week. Maybe mid-month warmth followed by a drop again. I don't see any indications of a wetter pattern though. Some modeling a week ago was indicating a cool October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 2, 2019 Author Share Posted September 2, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: I was mostly just being facetious. Wouldn't surprise me if the general dryness continued for a while though. I figured, but wasn’t sure! Im done with dry. I don’t a wet and miserable fall, but September would be an ideal time to break into some wetter weather. Dry Octobers are great...but not after 3-4 months of being parched. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Dry in October is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 2, 2019 Author Share Posted September 2, 2019 2 hours ago, jewell2188 said: Dry in October is the worst. OK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 Nice to see the modeled -NAO ripped apart in the shorter term again. Bad news in the Pacific on models in the medium/long range as we roll into the Fall (for the Winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 Negative 850s get here on the 06z GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: Negative 850s get here on the 06z GFS. Let me guess, at 384 hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: Negative 850s get here on the 06z GFS. Could really use something to break the pattern. Hot and dry for weeks blows 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 So I guess those runs that were showing the first major cooldown and legit fall-like temps mar end of month were NOT onto something... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 The GEFS is still advertising typical early fall weather with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s for the last week of September, similar to the rest of this week. Nothing wrong with that. Still looks plenty dry though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: So I guess those runs that were showing the first major cooldown and legit fall-like temps mar end of month were NOT onto something... GFS/GEFS seem to have a bias toward cool downs at the end of their runs. Ian commented on this a few weeks ago on Twitter. Might give us (and JB) a lot of false alarms of cold this winter if it continues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: GFS/GEFS seem to have a bias toward cool downs at the end of their runs. Ian commented on this a few weeks ago on Twitter. Might give us (and JB) a lot of false alarms of cold this winter if it continues. Not to worry, 6Z fixed that for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 14 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: So I guess those runs that were showing the first major cooldown and legit fall-like temps mar end of month were NOT onto something... Plenty of sunshine though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Some hang the hat on the negative GLAAM Personally I think its a marketing move here. And I love the part about the low confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 20, 2019 Author Share Posted September 20, 2019 I’m assuming no unicorns will pop on the long-range globals by the end of this month. Maybe next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Man, 6Z was the worst GFS run yet. After a 30hr cool down to normal midweek, it's hideous through the rest of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 31 minutes ago, mattie g said: I’m assuming no unicorns will pop on the long-range globals by the end of this month. Maybe next year. In the long range the advertised h5 look on the GEFS reminds me of what we saw a lot last winter lol. Looks good up top, lots of red in the NA, low heights off of the Canadian Maritimes, but then there is a huge ridge in the EPac/GOA with downstream trough planted in the W US. Leaves our region with at least weak ridging. I mentioned this in the disco thread last night- if that NA look is real, the developing trough to our NE may end up influencing our region more than the models are currently depicting by the end of the month. Still over a week out, and lots can change as we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 What a great look in the NA. Too bad the PAC completely blows. Winter preview maybe- we get our -NAO but.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 Longer winter wavelengths would help a lot if we had that beast of a -NAO with a 50/50 low underneath. But a deep upper low off the west coast is never what we want. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Longer winter wavelengths would help a lot if we had that beast of a -NAO with a 50/50 low underneath. But a deep upper low off the west coast is never what we want. Yeah and even now, if that block is real, the vortex underneath might build westward and give our ridge party an early end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 I doubt if the -NAO verifies the EC ridge will dominate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Don S always has some interesting data insights regarding the various indices. This time the focus is the PNA. Although it seems many of his observations recently point to a warm Fall. Well, in my many years of following Don, he simply calls it like he sees it . When the historical associations and data point to colder outcomes he will mention that too. donsutherland1 Location: New York Posted 55 minutes ago The latest PNA forecast shows a dramatic drop that could take place over a very short period of time. Since daily PNA data have been available beginning in 1950, there have been 13 cases where the PNA dropped 3.000 sigma or more during a 5-day period in the September 20-October 10 timeframe. In the New York City region, such a development typically provided a signal that the remainder of meteorological autumn (October and November) would have similar temperature anomalies as September (9/13 or 69% of cases). When it comes to a warm September, as appears very likely this year, 6/8 (75%) cases were followed by a warm anomaly over the October-November period. Both cool cases had cool October anomalies. In short, the PNA appears to be offering a signal that the above normal temperature regime of September will likely predominate during the autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 Last few runs o fthe GFS have backed off some really hot looks middle to late next week and are bringing in much cooler air Thursday into Friday - keeping it around for the remainder of the run. Today's 6z even wants to bless us with some rain next Thursday/Friday as energy dives down with cool air behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 6Z is a really sweet run starting at 216hr. We are under d10 and the cool off is still there. If it's still there tomorrow, I might start to believe. Euro in support of the GFS too. Verbatim, there would be some frosty mornings likely in the d10 - d16 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 What a shift in models away from El Nino in the last 2-3 weeks. Look at this, El Nino until recently. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File:2019_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png[/img] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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