CAPE Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 31 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like OC, Chincoteague down to Va beach getting good rains and even as far northwest as Leonardtown, Hollywood Md getting showers . Even @C.A.P.E.s yard has some showers moving in from his east 60 currently here and cloudy. Picked up some light stuff overnight. .04". That batch east of me in central DE looks like it may be pivoting this way. Not expecting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 78 gust. damn 000 NOUS41 KAKQ 061151 PNSAKQ MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525-062351- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Wakefield VA 751 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 ...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... Location Speed Time/Date Lat/Lon Chesapeake Light Tower 78 MPH 0716 AM 09/06 36.90N/75.71W Ccem Carova Beach Fire Depar 67 MPH 0730 AM 09/06 36.52N/75.87W Rudee Inlet 61 MPH 0742 AM 09/06 36.83N/75.97W Cape Henry 58 MPH 0741 AM 09/06 36.93N/76.01W Cape Henry, VA 57 MPH 0730 AM 09/06 36.93N/76.01W Sandbridge 57 MPH 0739 AM 09/06 36.70N/75.93W Ccem Jarvisburg Elementary S 57 MPH 0720 AM 09/06 36.20N/75.86W 8 NW Cape Henry 56 MPH 0612 AM 09/06 37.03N/76.08W Willoughby Deguassing Statio 54 MPH 0642 AM 09/06 36.98N/76.32W 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 OC Report: Didn't leave, thankfully... Wife is not impressed... What else is new Weather is awesome. Yuuge waves and gusts 40-50. Cool stuff. High tide in about 2hrs and waves are already going over that first large dune on the beach. Interested in seeing if they make it to the dunes behind it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 I got my 0.08” participation trophy. Breezy, cloudy and cool- perfect for a Jebwalk! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 The wind orientation is perfect coming from the NNE so I can tuck my balcony chair into the NW corner and stay dry and watch the waves. I did venture out to the beach for a few mins but the sandblast on my legs was pretty unpleasant. Waves are pretty incredible... quite a few are easily 10-15ft and they've made it over the first dune with still 30 mins or so to high tide. I'm pretty salty that KDOX went down at 10a... smh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Feels a bit like fall out there today. Light rain and drizzle, breezy, and 64 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Turned out to be a really nice day at Deep Creek. Clouds hung around until late morning. Now mostly sunny and 70 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I got my 0.08” participation trophy. Breezy, cloudy and cool- perfect for a Jebwalk! Pretty much the same here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 7, 2019 Share Posted September 7, 2019 Nothing but blue skies here today. As is everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 7, 2019 Share Posted September 7, 2019 55 here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 7, 2019 Share Posted September 7, 2019 Low of 57. Coolest morning of the fall so far area wide it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 7, 2019 Share Posted September 7, 2019 40 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 55 here this morning. Here as well. Enjoy it while it last. Looks like summer returns in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 7, 2019 Share Posted September 7, 2019 Low of 59F. Not that nice. Latest GFS was wall to wall AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 7, 2019 Share Posted September 7, 2019 Low of 54 in Deep Creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted September 7, 2019 Share Posted September 7, 2019 Low was 57.2 here, got a few sprinkles little after 9 pm last night, love the look of past 24 hours radar/rainfall totals, reminds me of LE orographic lift in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 So what exactly is causing the moderate coastal flooding tonight across the Bay on nearly calm winds? *Never mind, found the explanation in the AFD. The elevated water from Dorian has shifted north up the Bay. The Annapolis forecast is no joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 It's getting extremely dry around here and there's no relief in sight. I hate ugly brown dry falls. Looks like another fall with no fall color incoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 20 minutes ago, dailylurker said: It's getting extremely dry around here and there's no relief in sight. I hate ugly brown dry falls. Looks like another fall with no fall color incoming. It is dry and you are right- no real prospects for a widespread soaker anytime soon. Plus we'll be pushing 90 for at least a couple days this week. I reseeded most of the back yard 2 weeks ago so I am constantly watering in that area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 53.3 here with a bit of fog, windows and doors opened wide! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 51 for the low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 58F for the low. 82F yesterday. This was one unimpressive cold front. We went from +15F all the way down to +1F. And in 2 days we'll be right back to +10F. Summers here just drag on and on. And the 6Z GFS is a disaster unless you are @subtropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: It is dry and you are right- no real prospects for a widespread soaker anytime soon. Plus we'll be pushing 90 for at least a couple days this week. I reseeded most of the back yard 2 weeks ago so I am constantly watering in that area. Yep, it stinks I am pondering pushing off the over seed that I had targeted for next weekend to late September. For now it appears we transition to a above normal temp regime after mid-month. Don S believe the data points to a warm Fall overall. Of course it is still early to tell for sure. The weeklies as Don mentions supports the warmer temps. I mean it does seem the general way we roll is a warm Fall . And to go with that with the exception of last March , March has been more wintery than Decembers have been recently. Sort of like it takes time to get the ball rolling and the effects of blocking tend to show up later in the winter season. Maybe some things at play this Fall will change that. At this time I am hoping we maintain Nino forcings. The QBO will be telling as well, as one piece of many that we need to look at in the months ahead. I would also look for hints in terms of the MJO and the amplitude, in view of the SH SSWE and the effects on the tropics. Of couse too, is the possibility the CFS has regarding the Pac and the Nino in the months ahead. Here is the update Don posted : he SOI was -15.27 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.225. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely, though the persistence of Dorian's impact on the larger circulation has reduced the probability of a warmer than normal September. Nevertheless, a warm monthly anomaly remains the base case. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. The latest EPS weeklies are hinting that an extended period of above to much above normal readings could prevail after mid-September. On September 6, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.154 (RMM). The September 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.228. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 58%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 We lost the - NAO and so begins the record + that will last until April 2020 . And yes I do think it had a role in the summer not going super hot at times, when it was at its deepest negative. Even though a lackluster -NAO is suppose to have no effect on cooling the NE section of the country. We had record drops. Some say a delayed response to the late season warmingh event. And, of course the Cold pool that had exsisted was also a factor. Which if I may add is viewed as a signal for the winter ahead that a averaged -NAO may occur. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, frd said: We lost the - NAO and so begins the record + that will last until April 2020 . And yes I do think it had a role in the summer not going super hot at times, when it was at its deepest negative. Even though a lackluster -NAO is suppose to have no effect on cooling the NE section of the country. We had record drops. Some say a delayed response to the late season warmingh event. And, of course the Cold pool that had exsisted was also a factor. Which if I may add is viewed as a signal for the winter ahead that a averaged -NAO may occur. Absolute perfect timing to **** us. Negative straight through the months it doesn't help us and a flip to + as soon as it can hurt us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 2 hours ago, frd said: We lost the - NAO and so begins the record + that will last until April 2020 . And yes I do think it had a role in the summer not going super hot at times, when it was at its deepest negative. Even though a lackluster -NAO is suppose to have no effect on cooling the NE section of the country. We had record drops. Some say a delayed response to the late season warmingh event. And, of course the Cold pool that had exsisted was also a factor. Which if I may add is viewed as a signal for the winter ahead that a averaged -NAO may occur. It's just running around seasonal.. it will be interesting to see if the Atlantic SST index, which has been a great predictor of the Winter NAO, and came in about -1.00 verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 The mid month period looks pretty toasty, and generally dry. Hopefully the very end of the month into early October will be more fall-like(unlike last year) and a bit wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The mid month period looks pretty toasty, and generally dry. Hopefully the very end of the month into early October will be more fall-like(unlike last year) and a bit wetter. Let’s hope the winter maps don’t look like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Let’s hope the winter maps don’t look like this Huggin' the CanSIPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 One heck of a +NAO kicking now.. gives way to -NAO in 10-13 days per models, will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 Ah, this is the heat and humidity that I remember down in Charlottesville. Absolutely horrible day and it’s only gonna get worse this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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