EastCoast NPZ Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Maybe, but the initial piece of NS energy dropping down, then a following piece, are going to flatten the current ridge after tomorrow. Should be pretty pleasant for the midweek period. As we approach Friday another eastern ridge will begin to pop as the NS motherload drops down out west and forms a deep trough. Next weekend might be warmer than this weekend. That ridge could stick around for 6-7 days, although with a strong NA ridge and NS energy moving underneath it, there is a chance it could flatten/break down the east coast ridge sooner. Looking at the overall long wave pattern, and rolling that forward, it likely favors more eastern ridging beyond that though. Torchtober! Hopefully the pattern retrogrades enough to place the mean ridge to our west after the first few days of October. Yes, the heat at starting at 168 hr on the EPS and GFS looks even warmer than this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 17 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Yes, the heat at starting at 168 hr on the EPS and GFS looks even warmer than this weekend. Not looking good for winter...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 41 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Think I am taking the under on temps on the extended myself. Awful lot of amplification with the long wave pattern and though we are getting to that time of year where you come to expect to see that it is still a little early. That said, would love to see this come in as depicted despite the heat it would bring. Pump up the heat and heights in the upper latitudes that this sort of amplification would bring so early in the game (as far as winter) would bode well for disrupting the formative stages of the PV. Agreed. I don't really mind temps in the 80s for a few days here and there. So far its been short lived, then a nice cooldown, then repeat. I would just like some rain and this pattern is not conducive for more than low chance passing showers with most of the energy with cold fronts staying north. It is good to see the propensity for heights to build up top on the guidance. Pretty stout looking -NAO being advertised. Hopefully that is a sign of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 43 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Agreed. I don't really mind temps in the 80s for a few days here and there. So far its been short lived, then a nice cooldown, then repeat. I would just like some rain and this pattern is not conducive for more than low chance passing showers with most of the energy with cold fronts staying north. It is good to see the propensity for heights to build up top on the guidance. Pretty stout looking -NAO being advertised. Hopefully that is a sign of things to come. Can't really get too worked up about the lack of rain. During the summer it's a different story because of the garden but now not so much. And the lack of rain during a warm fall is pretty standard (as I have seen time and again over the years) considering the long wave pattern that sets up typically to bring us that warmth (minus any tropical of course). As far as the height builds in the upper latitudes? I like what we have been seeing recently. Will it translate into the winter is a different story though. But so far so good as it should hinder the development of the PV. Give me a weakened and disturbed PV any winter and I will gladly roll the dice as far as the predominant long wave pattern that sets up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 Really impressive heat ridge building. The typical recent decade era of warm Falls continues, but now so with a more extreme solution possible as some models are forecasting record heights next weekend. To make matters worse, some models now show the WAR as an almost permanent feature in the early Fall and some keep the feature deep in the Fall season. This in a backdrop of growing drought concerns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 40 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Can't really get too worked up about the lack of rain. During the summer it's a different story because of the garden but now not so much. And the lack of rain during a warm fall is pretty standard (as I have seen time and again over the years) considering the long wave pattern that sets up typically to bring us that warmth (minus any tropical of course). As far as the height builds in the upper latitudes? I like what we have been seeing recently. Will it translate into the winter is a different story though. But so far so good as it should hinder the development of the PV. Give me a weakened and disturbed PV any winter and I will gladly roll the dice as far as the predominant long wave pattern that sets up. -AO is at the top of the list for increased chances of colder and above average snow for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 So hot. This just needs to end. JB is doing his “find some blue on a map” twitter game to show how everything is totally normal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 High of 91.6 dews in the 60s all day, at least the nights are longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Dry as the Sahara. There’s got to be a fire danger. This is a lawn-lovers nightmare.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Ugh... another 90 degree day today... and looks like some more this upcoming weekend with HHH returning Friday-Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 38 minutes ago, yoda said: Ugh... another 90 degree day today... and looks like some more this upcoming weekend with HHH returning Friday-Sunday... It’s dry and nasty out. Being so dry makes it worse imo. I’d say fall colors will be slim to none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 17 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: It’s dry and nasty out. Being so dry makes it worse imo. I’d say fall colors will be slim to none. Half the leaves will be off the trees before actual color change can occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Half the leaves will be off the trees before actual color change can occur. They almost ARE here now, least in my yard, crazy! I've been leaf raking/mowing for last 3 weeks. On a brighter note, I am now officially inside the 'first freeze' time of year (1983) and days are getting shorter. Average first freeze is around 14th of October and has been as late as first week of Nov! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 I’d lock in the entire 12z gfs if I could. Dare I say rainy and a very cool start to October? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’d lock in the entire 12z gfs if I could. Dare I say rainy and a very cool start to October? Read in the Mount Holy AFD this AM, but have not looked any further since then, that the GFS had a cool down coming with rain chances later this weekend, while the Euro was continued very warm. Hoping the GFS solution you mention here is the correct one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 After a bureaucratic delay, my completely revamped garden was installed during that worst heatwave in August. And I think it's rained here appreciably once since then. I keep getting notifications from DC Water about how much my usage has skyrocketed. Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 40 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’d lock in the entire 12z gfs if I could. Dare I say rainy and a very cool start to October? From my lips to God's ears. 6z showed signs of breaking this heat at D10ish too. Some support from GEFS also. Maybe it's for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 92/64 here currently.. humidity in the 30s percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Not sure I buy the extreme heat from the Euro for later next week. Sure dry ground helps but still. That look is unreal over a wide area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 86 with a hot, dry desert-like wind blowing. Don't think it can get much drier out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 50% chance of showers here tonight. lol. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 3 hours ago, JakkelWx said: 92/64 here currently.. humidity in the 30s percent. AHATT All Hot All The Time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Drizzle here. First drops in some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 14 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Drizzle here. First drops in some time. Well if you are getting drizzle, that means places nearby are getting a deluge. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Euro and GGEM both have record shattering soul crushing heat next Thursday before a strong cold front. Upper 90s verbatim. GFS about 10 degrees colder, faster with the front, and has a very cool airmass behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Gosh darn it’s dry and terrible out. We need a week of rain and then some legit fall cool air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 47 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro and GGEM both have record shattering soul crushing heat next Thursday before a strong cold front. Upper 90s verbatim. GFS about 10 degrees colder, faster with the front, and has a very cool airmass behind it. +25F. Sounds reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 38 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Gosh darn it’s dry and terrible out. We need a week of rain and then some legit fall cool air. Instead, you'll get 10 days of mid July heat without a drop of rain. But, maybe then we'll get some fall air. I suspect the models will back way off that strong cold front idea as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 I say this fulling knowing that this isn't how the weather works, but I like the idea of getting hot and dry out of the way now. It's made for a nicer year at UVA too. Less walking in the rain is a net positive, even with the heat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said: Gosh darn it’s dry and terrible out. We need a week of rain and then some legit fall cool air. You know what is really bad. I have been craving a thunderstorm or even just rain so much that I have had a Pandora station of thunderstorms/rain tracks playing the past few nights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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