September Discobs 2019

[CAPE]

Looks like we heat up well into the 80s Sat through Mon, then a cold front moves through. Despite the heat, dews should be in the upper 50s to around 60. That front offers probably our "best" shot at some rain over the next week. After that temps drop back to 80 or so for highs and upper 50s at night, before we heat up again by next Friday. Beyond that we may torch for a few days, but with ridging building in the NA around Greenland, there is an an upper low showing up south of that (50/50ish) on the means, so it may deliver a back door front as we see more of a NE trough develop and the upper ridging retro a bit more westward late next weekend into the following week, before weakening. Not at all sold on the idea of a persistent heat ridge/ torch for the rest of the month into early October. 

I put this here because no one really seems to read the Mid/LR thread lol.

[mattie g]

20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Dropped another degree after I left . 

47. 

Can we get a 45 for  $200 Alex tomorrow morning. 

Torch

[EastCoast NPZ]

Today was fantastic.

 10/10.

[nj2va]

Currently 48/45 here in Deep Creek.

[Jebman]

5 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Dropped another degree after I left . 

47. 

Can we get a 45 for  $200 Alex tomorrow morning. 

You'll get a 43! You're on a roll!

[WxUSAF]

BWI down to 49 this morning.

[CAPE]

45 here currently.

House feels a bit cold this morning.

[JakkelWx]

We dust bowl.

[BristowWx]

44. Impressive.  Looking forward to Thanksgiving.

[WVclimo]

40 in my yard this morning.  42 at MRB, 3 degrees above the record low for the date from 1959.

[wxdude64]

44.6 for a low this am, finally feels like the correct season! 

[Chris78]

Feels amazing outside this morning.

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Impressive cooling last night.  

Low 42

At camp myself. Was up and out around 5 and it was quite nippy. Normally will sit outside on the deck drinking coffee. But after a couple of minutes of watching steam billow out of my mouth and freezing my butt off I gave it up and went back into the trailer and cranked the heat up. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Perfect.  Just perfect.

45F.

[George BM]

IAD down to 45F this morning.

[GramaxRefugee]

SBY went to 42F. Not bad.

48 at my place

[mattie g]

Only 50 here in Burke. Not too bad, I guess. We’re enough removed from more populated areas to lose most UHI effects, and we have lots of forested areas immediately surrounding us, but we’re not the best at radiating.

[WxUSAF]

Ugh 

https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/1175108328281825282?s=21

[frd]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ugh 

https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/1175108328281825282?s=21

Feedback the real deal, even in late September . this will extend IMHO the summer heat until November 

Also makes me think twice about over seeding .  I mean the entire project is like $ 700 . What to do ? 

 

 

 

 

[MN Transplant]

22 hours ago, mattie g said:

Didn’t realize that we’re well on track for driest September ever at DCA.

Awesome afternoon here in Burke. 72, dry, and sunny.

2005 had 0.11" for the month, so the best we can do is a tie.

[yoda]

DO NOT WANT BOLDED BELOW... from this afternoon's AFD from LWX... I cut out the portion before the LONG TERM

Quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
259 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A positively tilted trof over the wrn Great Lks Monday is
forecast to deepen and become a closed low as it crosses the ern
Great Lks, southern Ontario, and the St. Lawrence River Valley
Tuesday. This help push a cold front through the area late
Monday. Showers appear likely along the front Monday afternoon
mainly over the Appalachians and areas west of Route 15 with
model guidance showing little or no accumulation east of Route
15. Cooler temperatures are expected for the middle of next week
under the influence of the upper level trof. Heights begin to
rise sharply on Wed with strong ridge axis settling over the
area by next weekend with 500 mb heights progged higher than
with the ridge currently over the area. This will lead to a
significant warming trend with temperatures aoa 90F for the
second half of next week with record high temperatures possible
for late Sep and continued dry weather.

[frd]

Some cool info on the Nino thread. Seems negative SOI in September leads to a warm October most times but a cold December.  Just one part of the puzzle. 

Amazing the longevity of the - SOI and the cooling Eastern Pac. 

Meanwhile courtesy of  a recent bluewave post, we have the most poistive ONI yet, MJO forecasted in phase 1 coming up, drop  in the  NAO and along with a deep and continuing  - SOI  . 

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

---

SOI values for 21 Sep, 2019
Average SOI for last 30 days	-14.88
Average SOI for last 90 days	-8.63
Daily contribution to SOI calculation	-19.49

Monthly average SOI values
Jun	-9.99
Jul	-5.86
Aug	-3.14

Note: The SOI values are expressed as an index (i.e. no units) and are derived from the 1887–1989 base period. This information is updated daily. The new data are typically available by 7:00pm (AEST). 

Daily contribution 

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
21 Sep 2019	1012.89	1013.85	-19.49	-14.88	-8.63
20 Sep 2019	1011.30	1013.65	-27.75	-14.12	-8.62
19 Sep 2019	1010.93	1014.55	-35.30	-13.56	-8.78
18 Sep 2019	1013.89	1015.10	-20.97	-12.84	-8.78
17 Sep 2019	1015.32	1014.55	-9.21	-11.78	-8.76
16 Sep 2019	1015.60	1014.25	-5.76	-11.23	-8.79
15 Sep 2019	1015.15	1014.80	-11.70	-10.79	-8.85
14 Sep 2019	1013.80	1016.00	-26.86	-10.94	-8.81
13 Sep 2019	1013.56	1016.10	-28.88	-10.70	-8.55
12 Sep 2019	1014.46	1016.25	-24.42	-10.34	-8.18
11 Sep 2019	1015.25	1014.90	-11.70	-9.91	-7.91
10 Sep 2019	1014.70	1014.25	-11.11	-9.63	-7.72
9 Sep 2019	1013.50	1014.80	-21.51	-9.19	-7.49
8 Sep 2019	1013.95	1015.15	-20.92	-7.80	-7.03
7 Sep 2019	1014.10	1014.35	-15.27	-6.34	-6.71
6 Sep 2019	1014.09	1013.55	-10.58	-5.17	-6.55
5 Sep 2019	1013.81	1013.60	-12.54	-4.27	-6.55
4 Sep 2019	1013.73	1013.90	-14.79	-3.66	-6.54
3 Sep 2019	1013.36	1013.85	-16.70	-3.23	-6.43
2 Sep 2019	1012.96	1014.15	-20.86	-3.06	-6.33
1 Sep 2019	1013.31	1013.40	-14.32	-2.99	-6.29
31 Aug 2019	1013.01	1013.35	-11.90	-3.00	-6.32
30 Aug 2019	1012.61	1014.40	-20.70	-2.85	-6.22
29 Aug 2019	1014.44	1015.30	-15.05	-2.05	-6.07
28 Aug 2019	1015.17	1014.90	-8.19	-1.22	-6.10
27 Aug 2019	1015.16	1013.85	-1.88	-0.64	-6.12
26 Aug 2019	1014.85	1013.20	0.18	-0.61	-6.17
25 Aug 2019	1014.30	1013.55	-5.28	-0.40	-6.33
24 Aug 2019	1015.25	1014.80	-7.10	-0.03	-6.48
23 Aug 2019	1017.16	1014.85	4.19	0.02	-6.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

OMG...... never seen this before.  Crazy extreme drop. Jeez....

I really do think as indicators for the late Fall and early winter it is impossible to predict,  except to say I feel extremes are in cards in the months ahead. 

 

 

 

 

[wxdude64]

21 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

2005 had 0.11" for the month, so the best we can do is a tie.

1985 is the gold standard around my area for driest Sept. I recorded 0.06 that month. All the CO-Op's within 40 miles of me were 0.13 or less. That was also an interesting month period. Started hot as Hades, with low 90's, then we dropped in middle of month to have 4 consecutive frosts from 15-19th with temps in mid 30's! Ended the month a -0.5 from average. BTW I am currently at 0.18 for the month so 1985 is safe.

[MN Transplant]

Under an inch for the past 30 day period.  I preferred 2018.

[CAPE]

My point/click. I mean, this isn't hideous. It could be worse if not for the h5 heights building over Greenland and the deep vortex sitting underneath. Impressive NA block on the means. Without it, there would likely be a full 7 days of temps near/above 90. Too bad there is little chance of rain.

Monday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph.

Monday Night

A chance of showers, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 79.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 57.

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 80.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 60.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 60.

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 81.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 59.

Saturday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.

[EastCoast NPZ]

3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

My point/click. I mean, this isn't hideous. It could be worse if not for the h5 heights building over Greenland and the deep vortex sitting underneath. Impressive NA block on the means. Without it, there would likely be a full 7 days of temps near/above 90. Too bad there is little chance of rain.

Monday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph.

Monday Night

A chance of showers, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 79.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 57.

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 80.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 60.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 60.

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 81.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 59.

Saturday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.

That will trend warmer as we get closer.  

[JakkelWx]

 Precip departures from normal (month to date) show a majority of the subforum running 2 inches below normal for the month of September. So far, it looks like very little rain (if any) will fall for the rest of the month. Fall foliage season will probably be delayed, as a result of warmer than normal temps occurring alongside below normal precip. 

Today I have mowed the grass, and walking barefoot on my lawn feels like needles going into my feet because the grass here is getting so dry. 

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

[CAPE]

10 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

That will trend warmer as we get closer.  

Maybe, but the initial piece of NS energy dropping down, then a following piece, are going to flatten the current ridge after tomorrow. Should be pretty pleasant for the midweek period. As we approach Friday another eastern ridge will begin to pop as the NS motherload drops down out west and forms a deep trough. Next weekend might be warmer than this weekend. That ridge could stick around for 6-7 days, although with a strong NA ridge and NS energy moving underneath it, there is a chance it could flatten/break down the east coast ridge sooner.

Looking at the overall long wave pattern, and rolling that forward, it likely favors more eastern ridging beyond that though. Torchtober! Hopefully the pattern retrogrades enough to place the mean ridge to our west after the first few days of October.

[showmethesnow]

43 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Maybe, but the initial piece of NS energy dropping down, then a following piece, are going to flatten the current ridge after tomorrow. Should be pretty pleasant for the midweek period. As we approach Friday another eastern ridge will begin to pop as the NS motherload drops down out west and forms a deep trough. Next weekend might be warmer than this weekend. That ridge could stick around for 6-7 days, although with a strong NA ridge and NS energy moving underneath it, there is a chance it could flatten/break down the east coast ridge sooner.

Think I am taking the under on temps on the extended myself. Awful lot of amplification with the long wave pattern and though we are getting to that time of year where you come to expect to see that it is still a little early. 

That said, would love to see this come in as depicted despite the heat it would bring. Pump up the heat and heights in the upper latitudes that this sort of amplification would bring so early in the game (as far as winter) would bode well for disrupting the formative stages of the PV.