Brasiluvsnow Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 49 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: In a word? Yes Not exactly the answer I was looking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: The conspiracy theories on lack of cat 5 are silly. Silly you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: What is a fake piece of h5 energy? That would be the weather equivalent of fake news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Just now, Vice-Regent said: That would be the weather equivalent of fake news. Yes... the GFS decided that tonight in its run to do that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 33 minutes ago, WildFlower said: Your kidding... right? Nope not at all ... she just boarded it a few hours ago . I’m sitting here like yeah that’s nice . By the time you get there nothing will be left of the Bahamas . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 The question is how do you feel about this? I'll take the CMC over the GFS any day of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, Prospero said: Silly you! Nah, I'm good. NHC made a reasonable argument on why it wasn't upgraded. We are talking about the difference between a high end cat 4 vs a cat 5 lurking off the coast. Not a huge difference there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, TriPol said: Fun to see at hour 162... a major blizzard in Nova Scotia! ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 If nothing else comes of the storm I'm happy Tropical Tidbits has been earning some YouTube cash flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 God willing Josh Mogerman did not look at the 0z HMON. I think he's made it through sub 900mb landfalls but the Bahamas are very flat for the most part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This is close for many areas on the east coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Two clicks to the west and Florida’s east coast will be a mess and all the people who didn’t leave ... my god it’s going to be horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anemone Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Has anyone compiled a list of webcams and chasers broadcasting in the Bahamas? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 You may want to rethink your retirement plans after this hurricane or at the very least reconsider buying coastal property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Josh is about to get Haiyaned again. In the Atlantic even!!! Holy shit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Does anybody have any idea how many millions of dollars have been refunded for this very important weekend in Florida? Could it be in the billions? Even on the west coast in Clearwater Beach we've handed out refunds when our policies were spelled out that ONLY when a mandatory evacuation is in place do we refund. But with panicking guests who are terrified to come to Florida with all the media hype are begging us, we go above and beyond our policy and give them their money back. Sadly we are looking at a totally gorgeous weekend, but so many have stayed home wherever they are. Statewide, I cannot imagine the financial impact this media fiasco has cost us all. It is a disaster even if Dorian never touches our state. Huge disaster. Do I believe Governor DeSantis, who has been upfront on urging residents to be prepared, would have an enormous amount of pressure on him to do what he can to ease public fear on Florida tourism? Would Trump be under pressure? We are talking a TON of money on a weekend when tourism is critical for a lot of businesses to survive until Thanksgiving week. Can you imagine the publicity a Cat 5 hurricane would have when the media is drooling for some kind of major story right now? When Dorian was a "direct hit" on Florida, they were raking in the dough with advertisers and ratings. But with it going out to sea, they are losing viewers quickly. "Historic Cat 5!" BINGO they have it back and Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina pay the price even if a rain drop or steady breeze never touches any of us. Someone said it was a "ridiculous" idea to think that the NHC would not go with Cat 5 right now even if it was. How ignorant they must be. To underestimate the power of politics and industry is as dangerous as under estimating the power of a hurricane. No offense to anyone, please, but know the world we live and understand how it works.So you're blaming the media for the hurricane basically. You'd be the type to stay put cause you think it's all hype and then be the first to complain if it hit and say they didn't do enough.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
courier_2003 Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Dorian's maximum sustained winds are now up to 175 mph.Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Not a blue shed. That'll outlast anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Meanwhile, a serene morning here in Tampa Bay. Always reminded that if a system like Dorian approaches TB at a particular direction, my neighborhood is under 30+ feet of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Off to Sunday morning mass...will be saying my prayers for the folks in the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 I have some extended stepfamily who lives in Man-O-War near Marsh Harbor in The Bahamas and decided not to evacuate. WTF??? Hope they survive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 I just want to say I despise storm chasers that pit themselves in the path of these storms in very dangerous situations. A couple almost got killed last year and had to break into a house...going to the Bahamas in this is ridiculous and it encourages amateurs to try it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 At what point will the pro forecasters and meteorologists admit that UK and ICON models are onto something that the NHC refuses to admit? It's bizarre because the storm is starting to move WSW rather than W now via infrared GOES and visible satellite imagery. This storm is looking more and more like a Florida landfall is going to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 I know Josh has been in many intense Hurricanes. Has he ever been in the eyewall of something this intense? He was not the in strongest winds of Michael, Patricia was a weakening 4, Haiyan was probably a 4 by the time it got to Tacloban City. I know Michael last year was the lower pressure he has actually recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Steven_1974 said: So you're blaming the media for the hurricane basically. You'd be the type to stay put cause you think it's all hype and then be the first to complain if it hit and say they didn't do enough. Not at all, but I am blaming the national media for creating mass-hysteria earlier in the week and I was reminding any readers here that what is "entertainment" for major media comes with a huge cost for businesses and families. Local media has done a great job balancing how to warn residents and encourage making preparations while not creating wide-spread panic. As for the NHC, science is the base, but then there has to be judgement calls on how to attempt to produce an accurate forecast and minimize undue hardship on everybody emotionally and financially. I am sure phone calls are being made by businesses to their Chamber of Commerce, and from Chambers to their representatives all the way to the Governor. Some of those concerns would certainly make it to the NHC where some decisions may be influenced, within reason of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 Damn, that is a hell of a storm. Goodbye Abaco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Bouncy House Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 If the models don't predict rapid intensification, and any wobble or interaction with land mass could impact direction, I wouldn't discount any solution that has a Florida landfall. I do see a couple ticks north on the satellite, but could wobble south again as the center moves over the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Flying Bouncy House said: If the models don't predict rapid intensification, and any wobble or interaction with land mass could impact direction, I wouldn't discount any solution that has a Florida landfall. I do see a couple ticks north on the satellite, but could wobble south again as the center moves over the islands. Hurricane intensity forecasts are always a crapshoot, though. Michael wasn’t supposed to get nearly as strong as it did right before landfall in the FL panhandle last year, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Bouncy House Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: Hurricane intensity forecasts are always a crapshoot, though. Michael wasn’t supposed to get nearly as strong as it did right before landfall in the FL panhandle last year, either. They certainly are, but other than the short-term track, there hasn't been much consistency in the models. I would be very concerned with the Ukies, but we won't know until it progresses through the islands. If it hasn't started turning NW by then, all bets are off and the panic will set in. This is crazy stuff to watch, like the worst possible reality show you could imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 1, 2019 Share Posted September 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, Flying Bouncy House said: They certainly are, but other than the short-term track, there hasn't been much consistency in the models. I would be very concerned with the Ukies, but we won't know until it progresses through the islands. If it hasn't started turning NW by then, all bets are off and the panic will set in. This is crazy stuff to watch, like the worst possible reality show you could imagine. It’s definitely important to remember a Florida landfall is well within range of a “typical forecast error” 48 hours out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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