Hurricane Dorian Banter Thread

[Akeem the African Dream]

7 hours ago, Rjay said:

@Akeem the African Dream

 

 

that’s so hard to read

[caviman2201]

We do this in the MIDATL... What's everyone drinking/munching on while binge watching TWC and refreshing sat shots?  For me it's Paulaner Oktoberfest and peanut butter filled pretzel bites

[WishingForWarmWeather]

11 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

We do this in the MIDATL... What's everyone drinking/munching on while binge watching TWC and refreshing sat shots?  For me it's Paulaner Oktoberfest and peanut butter filled pretzel bites

Quadruple rum splash of coke. 

[Torch Tiger]

drinking the model kool-aid

[JakkelWx]

How many football fields wide is the eye right now?

[ct_yankee]

I've been thinking about the fact that there's been no sign of an ERC with Dorian. Everybody's been looking for that all day, but there's been nothing. Very weird.

I'm thinking somewhere there's a painting of the hurricane, a picture, as it were... And if you look very closely and carefully at the picture of Dorian, there you will see the Eyewall Replacement Cycles. Only on the picture, while Dorian the storm sails on blissfully and forever unchanging.

Well, it's a theory. I do like the name.

 

[Hoth]

16 minutes ago, ct_yankee said:

I've been thinking about the fact that there's been no sign of an ERC with Dorian. Everybody's been looking for that all day, but there's been nothing. Very weird.

I'm thinking somewhere there's a painting of the hurricane, a picture, as it were... And if you look very closely and carefully at the picture of Dorian, there you will see the Eyewall Replacement Cycles. Only on the picture, while Dorian the storm sails on blissfully and forever unchanging.

Well, it's a theory. I do like the name.

 

No indication of secondary wind maxima on the recon flights that I've seen. Just a smooth climb in windspeed right up to the eye wall. Fairly axisymmetric appearance with that perfect donut hole eye. Not going to invoke the "A word", but it certainly has some characteristics in common. That may be lending stability to the system. Irma was similar. Went a good day and half at high end cat 5 before undergoing ERC. Anyway, a freaking incredible system.

[Random Chaos]

23 minutes ago, ct_yankee said:

I've been thinking about the fact that there's been no sign of an ERC with Dorian. Everybody's been looking for that all day, but there's been nothing. Very weird.

I'm thinking somewhere there's a painting of the hurricane, a picture, as it were... And if you look very closely and carefully at the picture of Dorian, there you will see the Eyewall Replacement Cycles. Only on the picture, while Dorian the storm sails on blissfully and forever unchanging.

Well, it's a theory. I do like the name.

 

One thing that could be preventing an ERC is what appears to be a light consistent easterly shear, which is most evident by the continually reduced convection on the western side. If you think about the properties that make an annular hurricane (and I am by no means saying that Dorian is annular), these are typically light persistent shear, cooler water than what should typically support the system (though not always required), and a lack of banding. This results in a lack of ERCs. With the exception of the cooler water, Dorian has the other properties, and isn't undergoing an ERC (nor does recon indicate any secondary wind maxima developing).

[Sportybx]

My wife’s cousin just boarded a cruise in Jacksonville on the way to Bahamas . Am I the only one who thinks that is completely crazy ? How the hell does a cruise line even attempt to be out in those waters not knowing the exact tract for the next 5 days ? 

[Random Chaos]

7 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

My wife’s cousin just boarded a cruise in Jacksonville on the way to Bahamas . Am I the only one who thinks that is completely crazy ? How the hell does a cruise line even attempt to be out in those waters not knowing the exact tract for the next 5 days ? 

Most likely the cruise line will divert and/or go around the storm. The storm is moving at only 8mph which gives a cruise ship plenty of room to maneuver. But still a bit of a head scratcher.

[bobbutts]

Part of me is annoyed how much we worry about maximum wind speeds and the other part feels ripped off that this isn't a 5.

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Part of me is annoyed how much we worry about maximum wind speeds and the other part feels ripped off that this isn't a 5.

Maybe they're right and it's not.   I happen to think they should have upgraded and it should be a Cat 5 currently.  The nutty posts are flying right now though.  

Thank you for posting in the proper thread.  

[Orangeburgwx]

7 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Part of me is annoyed how much we worry about maximum wind speeds and the other part feels ripped off that this isn't a 5.

Twitter is a firestorm over the latter half of that sentence... No way in hell is it still a 4

[nj2va]

Certainly a head scratcher to keep it at 4 but NHC is a lot smarter than me (and they aren’t drinking wine...at least hopefully they aren’t) 

and LOL at those saying it’s politics why NHC isn’t upgrading. Advice...step away from the constant political news cycle. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

I posted this in the storm thread but it belongs here as well "Can anyone answer this = assuming that Dorian continues traveling west at its current speed what longitude and latitude would it have to be at where it would be safe to say that this WOULD BE making landfall in Florida ?"

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Guess a head boss wanted one final pass...

Maybe they saw a bunch of angry tweets

[Orangeburgwx]

6 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I posted this in the storm thread but it belongs here as well "Can anyone answer this = assuming that Dorian continues traveling west at its current speed what longitude and latitude would it have to be at where it would be safe to say that this WOULD BE making landfall in Florida ?"

In a word? Yes

[RedSky]

32 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

My wife’s cousin just boarded a cruise in Jacksonville on the way to Bahamas . Am I the only one who thinks that is completely crazy ? How the hell does a cruise line even attempt to be out in those waters not knowing the exact tract for the next 5 days ? 

It's an adventure cruise - Poseidon Adventure

 

[Bubbler86]

I do not wish pain for Florida but maybe it would stop a few of these 'the icon is crap' posts.  Especially embarrassing from a red tagger.  

[Prospero]

Does anybody have any idea how many millions of dollars have been refunded for this very important weekend in Florida? Could it be in the billions?

Even on the west coast in Clearwater Beach we've handed out refunds when our policies were spelled out that ONLY when a mandatory evacuation is in place do we refund. But with panicking guests who are terrified to come to Florida with all the media hype are begging us, we go above and beyond our policy and give them their money back. Sadly we are looking at a totally gorgeous weekend, but so many have stayed home wherever they are.

Statewide, I cannot imagine the financial impact this media fiasco has cost us all. It is a disaster even if Dorian never touches our state. Huge disaster.

Do I believe Governor DeSantis, who has been upfront on urging residents to be prepared, would have an enormous amount of pressure on him to do what he can to ease public fear on Florida tourism? Would Trump be under pressure? We are talking a TON of money on a weekend when tourism is critical for a lot of businesses to survive until Thanksgiving week.

Can you imagine the publicity a Cat 5 hurricane would have when the media is drooling for some kind of major story right now? When Dorian was a "direct hit" on Florida, they were raking in the dough with advertisers and ratings. But with it going out to sea, they are losing viewers quickly. "Historic Cat 5!" BINGO they have it back and Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina pay the price even if a rain drop or steady breeze never touches any of us.

Someone said it was a "ridiculous" idea to think that the NHC would not go with Cat 5 right now even if it was. How ignorant they must be.

To underestimate the power of politics and industry is as dangerous as under estimating the power of a hurricane.

No offense to anyone, please, but know the world we live and understand how it works.

[JakkelWx]

Where's the Bermuda triangle when you need it most. Make the whole storm just disappear.

[Rjay]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I do not wish pain for Florida but maybe it would stop a few of these 'the icon is crap' posts.  Especially embarrassing from a red tagger.  

The icon is crap

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Prospero said:

Does anybody have any idea how many millions of dollars have been refunded for this very important weekend in Florida? Could it be in the billions?

Even on the west coast in Clearwater Beach we've handed out refunds when our policies were spelled out that ONLY when a mandatory evacuation is in place do we refund. But with panicking guests who are terrified to come to Florida with all the media hype are begging us, we go above and beyond our policy and give them their money back. Sadly we are looking at a totally gorgeous weekend, but so many have stayed home wherever they are.

Statewide, I cannot imagine the financial impact this media fiasco has cost us all. It is a disaster even if Dorian never touches our state. Huge disaster.

Do I believe Governor DeSantis, who has been upfront on urging residents to be prepared, would have an enormous amount of pressure on him to do what he can to ease public fear on Florida tourism? Would Trump be under pressure? We are talking a TON of money on a weekend when tourism is critical for a lot of businesses to survive until Thanksgiving week.

Can you imagine the publicity a Cat 5 hurricane would have when the media is drooling for some kind of major story right now? When Dorian was a "direct hit" on Florida, they were raking in the dough with advertisers and ratings. But with it going out to sea, they are losing viewers quickly. "Historic Cat 5!" BINGO they have it back and Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina pay the price even if a rain drop or steady breeze never touches any of us.

Someone said it was a "ridiculous" idea to think that the NHC would not go with Cat 5 right now even if it was. How ignorant they must be.

To underestimate the power of politics and industry is as dangerous as under estimating the power of a hurricane.

No offense to anyone, please, but know the world we live and understand how it works.

This is spot on.  Disney is being taken out to the woodshed with their star wars land not doing anything near what they expected.    To counter it a bit I would be afraid to tell anyone the coast is clear right now either.  I was supposed to go to the billmar earlier next week but pulled out myself.  Should be some good deals for last minutes deals that locals can snag.

[WildFlower]

48 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

My wife’s cousin just boarded a cruise in Jacksonville on the way to Bahamas . Am I the only one who thinks that is completely crazy ? How the hell does a cruise line even attempt to be out in those waters not knowing the exact tract for the next 5 days ? 

Your kidding... right?

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

The icon is crap

So untrue.  Show stats or shut it. 

[JakkelWx]

NHC will wait until everyone's asleep at 2 AM to upgrade to cat 5. Sheesh.

[BxEngine]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

So untrue.  Show stats or shut it. 

 

[Santa Claus]

1 hour ago, caviman2201 said:

We do this in the MIDATL... What's everyone drinking/munching on while binge watching TWC and refreshing sat shots?  For me it's Paulaner Oktoberfest and peanut butter filled pretzel bites

cheap wine like paul masson

getting absolutely blasted and i'm still not drunk enough to question the judgment of professional meteorologists re: whether the devastating hurricane is "extraordinarily devastating" or "historically devastating"

MUUUUWAAAAAHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHH the freeeeeeenchhhhhchampagnehasalwaysbeencelevbratedforitsssexcellence

 

[Prospero]

13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Disney is being taken out to the woodshed with their star wars land not doing anything near what they expected. 

Thank you, I forgot about Disney only thinking of beach vacation cancellations. For a couple days Orlando was a "Cat 2 or 3" dot on many maps for this weekend. It did look like it when it was too far away to make an accurate prediction, but today was beautiful state-wide and numbers were horrible for tourism.

Disney? As we who live in Florida know, "The Mouse" has amazing influence on politicians and if you piss off the Mouse there is a price to pay.

For the NHC? Sure you can fudge a call now and then if funding is at risk, or when favors are being tossed around. Who does it hurt? The Bahamas are screwed no matter what right now, why hurt Florida any more than it needs tonight. Right?

True we are not out the risk yet, at all, but we do not need greedy media hype piled on top of what may or may not happen. Truth would be welcome any time.

[Hoosier]

The conspiracy theories on lack of cat 5 are silly.