cptcatz Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Just something to keep in mind... these were the model tracks for Irma 2-3 days before it made the turn: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 I wonder if we finally have a decent forecast of forward speed. Seems like it has been much slower than expected for awhile now. NHC better be confident in the curve track, it's going to be ugly if SE FL has to get back in the cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Here's some sideways ukie images from the french site. Meteocentre comes out in less than 20 mins for those who can wait. Stays offshore. Lol enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Bust! Pretty incredible how poor mid range TC modeling is in 2019. From a Miami hit to out to sea in 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 @Akeem the African Dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 @StantonParkHoya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 @StantonParkHoya Here's a link to the Ukie http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 The Main thread is getting hard to read. The bias is strong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Just now, RT1980 said: The Main thread is getting hard to read. The bias is strong here. Why read the main thread when you can look at the sideways Ukie and upside-down Korean in here? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, RT1980 said: The Main thread is getting hard to read. The bias is strong here. What bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Just trying to learn a little bit! Seems feelings get hurt when others don’t agree! Not me personally. I never understood people who were so excited for destruction and others who insisted no impact. Hell the NWS doesn’t even know for sure but I’ve read comments here sealed in cement! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Why read the main thread when you can look at the sideways Ukie and upside-down Korean in here? Those f*cking maps 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Why read the main thread when you can look at the sideways Ukie and upside-down Korean in here? My vertigo won’t take it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: Those f*cking maps Lol. Trying to lighten the mood. People get too wound up too easily on here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: What bias Just seems some can say whatever they want and others disagree and posts vanish! Maybe I don’t know background? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 9 minutes ago, RT1980 said: Just seems some can say whatever they want and others disagree and posts vanish! Maybe I don’t know background? It's always been that way, a lot of groupthink and pig-piling on unpopular opinions and a few over-sensitive types to boot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: It's always been that way, a lot of groupthink and pig-piling on unpopular opinions and a few over-sensitive types to boot I can understand that but I thought this was a majority novice board where people were trying to learn about a hobby. I get the wishcasting/trolling has no place but I don’t see too much in these times of people in the know teaching. Just calling others out for not being in the know or others who have knowledge who happen to disagree out. Oh the interwebs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, RT1980 said: I can understand that but I thought this was a majority novice board where people were trying to learn about a hobby. I get the wishcasting/trolling has no place but I don’t see too much in these times of people in the know teaching. Just calling others out for not being in the know or others who have knowledge who happen to disagree out. Oh the interwebs! It's the same as most other msg boards and social media. The main thread: it's always a few enlightening posts surrounded by 95% filler, you just have to take away what you like to and sift through the rest. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 How’s it looking with the new models on the palm beach coast up towards port st Lucy ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 42 minutes ago, Rjay said: Lol. Trying to lighten the mood. People get too wound up too easily on here. This still doesn’t come close to what you gentlemen go through in the winter when the NE forum is in storm mode. You and Bx usually have to use a , howitzer to lighten that mood. As always .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Once Dorian enters the slightly warmer waters it should become a cat 5 by this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 I can't believe the failure of computer models this past month. I'm not just speaking about this Dorian situation, I'm speaking about how 10 days ago the models showed us ending August with 0 tropical storms, and in the last ten days, we had two storms, one hurricane, and one hurricane of 150 mph bearing down the Bahamas. I almost think that "phantom storms" on the old models 10 years ago atleast gave us an idea of upcoming activity. I remember the long-range GFS continuously showed a long-tracked hurricane coming off Africa for weeks. One would hit New England, one would hit Mexico, one would hit Miami. That phantom on the model eventually became Hurricane Dean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 This thread is useless without the Brazilian and Australian. Come on @Rjay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 23 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I can't believe the failure of computer models this past month. I'm not just speaking about this Dorian situation, I'm speaking about how 10 days ago the models showed us ending August with 0 tropical storms, and in the last ten days, we had two storms, one hurricane, and one hurricane of 150 mph bearing down the Bahamas. I almost think that "phantom storms" on the old models 10 years ago atleast gave us an idea of upcoming activity. I remember the long-range GFS continuously showed a long-tracked hurricane coming off Africa for weeks. One would hit New England, one would hit Mexico, one would hit Miami. That phantom on the model eventually became Hurricane Dean. What’s crazy is that two days ago you assured us the ridge was modeled too weak and that it would go south and west like all the other weenie storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said: What’s crazy is that two days ago you assured us the ridge was modeled too weak and that it would go south and west like all the other weenie storms Because when I thought the ridging would break down during Frances and Ivan and Dean and Felix and Ike and Irma...the ridging was stronger than the models depicted. So when the models showed ridging so strong Dorian got to the panhandle, I thought "Perhaps they're underestimating again and Dorian will head even further west than that." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 7 members browsing the main thread. That's a pretty good indicator to put a fork in it. I have a hard time winding down after getting into tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 West track into FL is a weird hill to die on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Attn Snowgoose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Love these ‘canes that get hyped and then go OTS.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 What the hell is the NHC thinking. This is a cat 5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now