Hurricane Dorian Banter Thread

[Benadrill]

1 minute ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Obviously, I disagree, and it's ok that you view it differently.

This is ridiculous. Post your Mexico Beach video that you think looks similar to Dorian.

[ncforecaster89]

33 minutes ago, Benadrill said:

This is ridiculous. Post your Mexico Beach video that you think looks similar to Dorian.

And, you say my posts "have an extremely salty tone?"  Btw, I sincerely apologize if my posts come off that way, as that's certainly not my intention. 

I have no problems sharing the video.  It's a long one, for it's basically all the raw footage and isn't edited to just show the highlights.  Keep in mind, the strongest winds were on the backside after the wind shift in the video.  This matches well with the Recon and radar data that showed the peak winds were in the SE eyewall.  It's virtually complete whiteout at the peak.  

There's a lot to see in the video, but for highest winds...best to view from about the 58:00:00 mark to 1:04:00 and again around the 1:06:00 mark onward to about 1:17:00, as the section in between is right before the wind shift shot from over the railing in the NE eyewall.  Peak winds somewhere during that 15 minute period or so.

Not simply the aforementioned data and insane conditions encountered at the western-most portion of MB, but also the damage evaluations performed by steer who showed debarking at both locations from each storm, respectively.

No doubt both locations saw genuine Cat 5 conditions, and it's ok for people to disagree on the exact winds experienced in Marsh Harbour...given the lack of data compared to what was available with Michael.   

 

[the ghost of leroy]

[Benadrill]

I dunno. Kind of look the same as they both go to a full white blur. 

[ncforecaster89]

3 hours ago, Benadrill said:

I dunno. Kind of look the same as they both go to a full white blur. 

Thanks for the objectivity.  Greatly respect that. 

Although some may not realize or appreciate it, my own personal opinion isn't rooted in the fact I was the one who shot the footage at that location in MB.  It's all about Michael's intensity and effects...not anything to do with me.

It's not like I've been suggesting Dorian didn't produce Cat 5 conditions in Marsh Harbour.  Josh's footage, MH's position in the eyewall, and the engineering evaluation by Steer all support Cat 5 conditions occurred at MH.  

Thanks again for taking the time to objectively review the video, and I hope you have a great rest of the day!

[the ghost of leroy]

Me me me me me me me

[ncforecaster89]

Just now, the ghost of leroy said:

Me me me me me me me

If you're referring to me, as it appears you are...you couldn't be farther from the truth.  Then again, that seems to be a regular thing with you.  

One thing I'm certainly not is self-centered or an attention seeker...unlike many other chasers.  If anything, I'm probably too empathic and truly care about others.   But, what would you know about that?  I'm not the one consistently posting such immature and rude comments.  

[the ghost of leroy]

35 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

If you're referring to me, as it appears you are...you couldn't be farther from the truth.  Then again, that seems to be a regular thing with you.  

One thing I'm certainly not is self-centered or an attention seeker...unlike many other chasers.  If anything, I'm probably too empathic and truly care about others.   But, what would you know about that?  I'm not the one consistently posting such immature and rude comments.  

Yeah I am talking about you. You’re annoying with all your paragraphs. 

[ncforecaster89]

9 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Yeah I am talking about you. You’re annoying with all your paragraphs. 

Lol.  I know I can be too long-winded.  Need to work on being more concise. 

[the ghost of leroy]

For real. 

[Floydbuster]

Comparing Josh's vid and this Mexico Beach Michael vid, they both in my opinion, show sustained Category 5 winds. The "whiteout" conditions in both storms is very similar to the infamous gas station video in Charlotte Harbor during Hurricane Charley, where the tiny and fast moving eyewall briefly produced sustained Category 4 winds and a gust to Cat 5 within several seconds which destroyed the gas station. The "whiteout" conditions are seen in that video as well, and Charley was 145 mph by the time winds hit Charlotte Harbor.

The only thing I disagree with Josh about is that Dorian is the cherry on his hurricane sundae. I think Dorian may just be a thick layer of fudge. Just wait until he's in the eye of the next 1935. (I suspect the winds in the '35 storm were actually stronger than 185 mph, and the motion was about 6 kts in a tiny eye with 892 mb pressure).

 

[HurricaneJosh]

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

Comparing Josh's vid and this Mexico Beach Michael vid, they both in my opinion, show sustained Category 5 winds. The "whiteout" conditions in both storms is very similar to the infamous gas station video in Charlotte Harbor during Hurricane Charley, where the tiny and fast moving eyewall briefly produced sustained Category 4 winds and a gust to Cat 5 within several seconds which destroyed the gas station. The "whiteout" conditions are seen in that video as well, and Charley was 145 mph by the time winds hit Charlotte Harbor.

The only thing I disagree with Josh about is that Dorian is the cherry on his hurricane sundae. I think Dorian may just be a thick layer of fudge. Just wait until he's in the eye of the next 1935. (I suspect the winds in the '35 storm were actually stronger than 185 mph, and the motion was about 6 kts in a tiny eye with 892 mb pressure).

 

Hey, thanks, Mike! I'm flattered that you have such a firm belief in my ability to pull that off again-- or top it. If I go to my grave with DORIAN being my biggest score, I'll feel like I did what I was put on this earth to do. But, hey, it's always worth striving for that next level. Anyhoo, thanks for watching the video. Hope you're well, man.

[ncforecaster89]

13 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Comparing Josh's vid and this Mexico Beach Michael vid, they both in my opinion, show sustained Category 5 winds. The "whiteout" conditions in both storms is very similar to the infamous gas station video in Charlotte Harbor during Hurricane Charley, where the tiny and fast moving eyewall briefly produced sustained Category 4 winds and a gust to Cat 5 within several seconds which destroyed the gas station. The "whiteout" conditions are seen in that video as well, and Charley was 145 mph by the time winds hit Charlotte Harbor.

The only thing I disagree with Josh about is that Dorian is the cherry on his hurricane sundae. I think Dorian may just be a thick layer of fudge. Just wait until he's in the eye of the next 1935. (I suspect the winds in the '35 storm were actually stronger than 185 mph, and the motion was about 6 kts in a tiny eye with 892 mb pressure).

 

Agree on all accounts.  Can only imagine a repeat of the GLDH of 1935 with all the buildup over the past 84 years.  Not to mention, it's one of the most vulnerable areas in the U.S. for such a monster Cat 5!

[Floydbuster]

57 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Agree on all accounts.  Can only imagine a repeat of the GLDH of 1935 with all the buildup over the past 84 years.  Not to mention, it's one of the most vulnerable areas in the U.S. for such a monster Cat 5!

You and Josh may be interested in this:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2007JCLI1772.1

 

Discussing return periods for sub-900 mb hurricanes in the United States.

"The 1935 Labor Day Florida Keys storm was the most severe in our dataset. With a 265-yr wind speed return period and a 102-yr central pressure return period, it presses the fitted model boundaries. We believe this is due in part to the extreme southern latitude of this landfalling storm. Another storm of this intensity would likely again require a very southern landfalling latitude, with the Florida Keys or the Brownsville, Texas, region being the most likely hosts."

 

Very interesting. That means, according to "return periods", a sub-900 mb U.S. landfall should come around again in about 10-20 years. But I'm also envisioning a Brownsville landfall of a storm of that intensity. I picture a pinhole eyewall on a morning visibile crossing South Padre Island.

I can picture Josh now, a big white beard, tweeting from Port Isabel.

[Windspeed]

You and Josh may be interested in this: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2007JCLI1772.1   Discussing return periods for sub-900 mb hurricanes in the United States.

"The 1935 Labor Day Florida Keys storm was the most severe in our dataset. With a 265-yr wind speed return period and a 102-yr central pressure return period, it presses the fitted model boundaries. We believe this is due in part to the extreme southern latitude of this landfalling storm. Another storm of this intensity would likely again require a very southern landfalling latitude, with the Florida Keys or the Brownsville, Texas, region being the most likely hosts."

 

Very interesting. That means, according to "return periods", a sub-900 mb U.S. landfall should come around again in about 10-20 years. But I'm also envisioning a Brownsville landfall of a storm of that intensity. I picture a pinhole eyewall on a morning visibile crossing South Padre Island.

I can picture Josh now, a big white beard, tweeting from Port Isabel.

That's a mean for projected return. It doesn't suggest we are due in another 10-20 years, only that per climatological average, a sub-900 mb landfall occurs within a spread of 102 years. There could be more or less years, or even 300 years between such events. I would need to read the paper in more detail on how they came up with those means. The 265-yr mean seems much too large to me however these are modeled datasets from projections and not historical observations since we do not have measurements prior to the 1800s. There are only a few estimated examples of such strong tempests prior to that due to captain logs or governing records.

[ncforecaster89]

2 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

You and Josh may be interested in this:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2007JCLI1772.1

 

Discussing return periods for sub-900 mb hurricanes in the United States.

"The 1935 Labor Day Florida Keys storm was the most severe in our dataset. With a 265-yr wind speed return period and a 102-yr central pressure return period, it presses the fitted model boundaries. We believe this is due in part to the extreme southern latitude of this landfalling storm. Another storm of this intensity would likely again require a very southern landfalling latitude, with the Florida Keys or the Brownsville, Texas, region being the most likely hosts."

 

Very interesting. That means, according to "return periods", a sub-900 mb U.S. landfall should come around again in about 10-20 years. But I'm also envisioning a Brownsville landfall of a storm of that intensity. I picture a pinhole eyewall on a morning visibile crossing South Padre Island.

I can picture Josh now, a big white beard, tweeting from Port Isabel.

Thanks so much for sharing the link and summarization of the paper.   If it occurs during my lifetime, I will most certainly be there to document it, as well!

[Windspeed]

McLean's Town, one of the communities in eastern Grand Bahama. It's pretty much what you would expect.

[Normandy]

Hate to gravedig but like I said in the 2021 Atlantic tropical thread this video is required viewing

https://youtu.be/Ar8Usv-Kwvs