Hurricane Dorian Banter Thread

[STxVortex]

The American Meteorological Society, the 'pro mets' professional group, issued a statement of support for the working NOAA staff [below]; especially those of the Birmingham, AL WFO, who corrected the 'Met-in-Chief's' absurd Sharpie forecast and his subsequent doubling down on Sharpiegate.

The NOAA upper level management and spokesperson types who folded under that wholly unjustified and corrupt WH political pressure, with that unattributed public rebuke of the Birmingham WFO, should be instantly removed, no later than on 22 Jan 2021.

IIRC, NOAA still only has an 'acting' director, not a permanent one, yet another example of the gross negligence of this maladministration [and subservience to VP/RU]. "Only the Best"...

 

https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/about-ams/response-to-noaa-statement/

https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/

"Response to NOAA Statement
 The American Meteorological Society fully supports our colleagues at NOAA, who consistently put the safety of the American public first and foremost.  They work tirelessly employing state of the art science to keep Americans safe.  With respect to the press release that was issued by NOAA on Friday, 6 September, regarding the forecast of Hurricane Dorian, AMS believes the criticism of the Birmingham forecast office is unwarranted; rather they should have been commended for their quick action based on science in clearly communicating the lack of threat to the citizens of Alabama.

[STxVortex]

29 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

"The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command."

An apt quote, but you should attribute it to George Orwell's great [and scary] book, "1984", which I think too few today are aware of. Yet, here we are, nearly living in it.

Nineteen Eighty-Four: A Novel, often published as "1984"

George Orwell presented a situation where people struggle to live in a atmosphere of deceit under the pervasive rule of "Big Brother". An atmosphere of deceit where "that which is truth" is totally controlled by an authoritatively positioned ruling party.

“What you’re seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening”

 

 

[Windspeed]

Even when you prove by Trump's very own actions and statements how irresponsible and dangerous he is, some people go with this ridiculous "it's just weather" bullshit or any other lame excuse for the hundreds of other examples of inappropriate actions/behavior. Yeah, you can go **** right off with all of that. I'm done dealing with you. There is no overcoming this lemming mentality and cult insanity anymore with a narcissist megalomaniac. I've thrown in the towel.

 

I pray for the day politics is boring again and matters of public safety are not denigrated into spectacle, misinformation and outright lies. I really am tired of this timeline. Perhaps some day we'll have a government again that isn't undermined all the way to the top with heads of the executive cabinet and congressional branches who actually do their damn jobs. For now it is a three-ring sideshow circus. Actually I shouldn't disrespect circus performers. They actually have value / worth and a place in our society.

 

Edit: Well I guess I'm no longer refraining. I apologize for the extreme rant. I've said my peace and I am done with it. Try to get back to a positive mentality and move on. What else you going to do in these times?

[Santa Claus]

11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Even when you prove by Trump's very own actions and statements how irresponsible and dangerous he is, some people go with this ridiculous "it's just weather" bullshit or any other lame excuse for the hundreds of other examples of inappropriate actions/behavior. Yeah, you can go right the **** off with all of that. I'm done dealing with you. There is no overcoming this lemming mentality and cult insanity anymore with a narcissist megalomaniac. I've thrown in the towel.

 

I pray for the day politics is boring again and matters of public safety are not denigrated into spectacle, misinformation and outright lies. I really am tired of this timeline. Perhaps some day we'll have a government again that isn't undermined all the way to the top with heads of the executive cabinet and congressional branches who actually do their damn jobs. For now it is a three-ring sideshow circus. Actually I shouldn't disrespect circus performers. They actually have value / worth and a place in our society.

Monsieur, before you throw in your napkin, can I not beg you to have one little mint?

If you're not full, don't worry, looks like this is a 30-course meal.  Even after this invalid is rolled into the asylum he'll be exclaiming through drool about how Senator Little Marco Rubio of Alabahama is sad, weak, and failing for letting Daffy Dorian destroy his island.  Some of the words in the tweet will be capitalized, but no one can say for sure which.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Josh started a first-person account of his Dorian experience via a twitter thread. Here is a link to the unrolled version (with 5 tweets so far) - https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1170675844815216640.html

[Hurricane Agnes]

 

[Maestrobjwa]

48 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

 

Uh-oh...smh I don't understand how we came to this. That even WEATHER has been poisoned by the divisiveness that has come with this presidency! I mean look, he messed up...but because of his otherworldly level of narcissism, he could not let it go (which led to the media not letting it go) because he can't stand looking bad even in the littlest thing. Mercy...we can't have this with weather warnings--lest people be less likely to react to a real threat!

[jburns]

 

 

 

 

34 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Uh-oh...smh I don't understand how we came to this. That even WEATHER has been poisoned by the divisiveness that has come with this presidency! 

An untreated cancer always metastasizes.

[rclab]

23 hours ago, jburns said:

KNOW WEIGH!!

After taking a close look at your avatar, I humbly withdraw my suggestion. As always ....

[jburns]

44 minutes ago, rclab said:

After taking a close look at your avatar, I humbly withdraw my suggestion. As always ....

That pic was taken on one of my good days.

[rclab]

1 hour ago, jburns said:

That pic was taken on one of my good days.

If all the folks of your ranking have a get together. I hope there are sufficient warnings posted for the surrounding area. As always .....

[Windspeed]

This is bloody disgraceful.... So much for being a beacon of light.

[Windspeed]

[Windspeed]

Yeah I am infuriated. What does it even mean to be an American anymore with shit like this happening?

 

 

[f2tornado]

This will not be a popular opinion here. The BMX tweet would have been the end of it however ABC Nightly News turned the tweet into a hit piece on the President in an effort to stick him with a gaff. The President then lashed out at the reporter and the pile on began. I have rarely seen this kind of media passion to turn a nontroversy into a controversy.

Consider the following published from BMX seven years ago

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 
626 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE NEVER BORING OR EASY TO FORECAST AS ISAAC
CONTINUES TO CHALLENGE.

Kudos to the BMX forecaster who had the utmost confidence to publish an effective 0% forecast "no impacts... felt across Alabama"  via Twitter in spite of the same office previously noting forecast difficulty with tropical systems. This conflicted, albeit slightly, with the NHC published probability distribution of TS winds covering a portion of AL. Further, it was somewhat inconsistent with the morning 9/1 Tallahassee AFD which covers southeast AL and stated, "The latest forecast for Hurricane Dorian from the National Hurricane Center continues to keep it east of the local area. While we still shouldn't let our guard completely down, the chance of impactful weather from Dorian occurring in our forecast area remains low".

BMX should be no stranger to forecast uncertainty. Take a look at the forecast cone for Hurricane Isaac (2012) that at one time was nearly centered over BMX. In fact, the entire state of Alabama was enveloped within the cone before none of the state was in the cone. It should be noted, even though the entire state of Alabama was outside the forecast cone toward landfall, the Mobile area did experience some TS force gusts and impact from surge. The cone only represents the storm center forecast track. This is why NHC storm wind probabilities are smeared well outside the cone with time and why forecasters should be cautious speaking in absolute terms, particularly when the average error for a tropical system is about 200 miles on day 5. 

[Akeem the African Dream]

 

 

[yoda]

Is turtlehurricane okay?  Haven't seen him since Dorian roared by

[09-10 analogy]

So, 16 days of Dorian. Sure seems like it was a lot longer.

[the ghost of leroy]

4 hours ago, f2tornado said:

This will not be a popular opinion here. The BMX tweet would have been the end of it however ABC Nightly News turned the tweet into a hit piece on the President in an effort to stick him with a gaff. The President then lashed out at the reporter and the pile on began. I have rarely seen this kind of media passion to turn a nontroversy into a controversy.

Consider the following published from BMX seven years ago

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 
626 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE NEVER BORING OR EASY TO FORECAST AS ISAAC
CONTINUES TO CHALLENGE.

Kudos to the BMX forecaster who had the utmost confidence to publish an effective 0% forecast "no impacts... felt across Alabama"  via Twitter in spite of the same office previously noting forecast difficulty with tropical systems. This conflicted, albeit slightly, with the NHC published probability distribution of TS winds covering a portion of AL. Further, it was somewhat inconsistent with the morning 9/1 Tallahassee AFD which covers southeast AL and stated, "The latest forecast for Hurricane Dorian from the National Hurricane Center continues to keep it east of the local area. While we still shouldn't let our guard completely down, the chance of impactful weather from Dorian occurring in our forecast area remains low".

BMX should be no stranger to forecast uncertainty. Take a look at the forecast cone for Hurricane Isaac (2012) that at one time was nearly centered over BMX. In fact, the entire state of Alabama was enveloped within the cone before none of the state was in the cone. It should be noted, even though the entire state of Alabama was outside the forecast cone toward landfall, the Mobile area did experience some TS force gusts and impact from surge. The cone only represents the storm center forecast track. This is why NHC storm wind probabilities are smeared well outside the cone with time and why forecasters should be cautious speaking in absolute terms, particularly when the average error for a tropical system is about 200 miles on day 5. 

you're a joke dude.  what is this nonsense?

[ct_yankee]

4 hours ago, f2tornado said:

This will not be a popular opinion here. The BMX tweet would have been the end of it however ABC Nightly News turned the tweet into a hit piece on the President in an effort to stick him with a gaff. The President then lashed out at the reporter and the pile on began. I have rarely seen this kind of media passion to turn a nontroversy into a controversy.

Consider the following published from BMX seven years ago

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 
626 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE NEVER BORING OR EASY TO FORECAST AS ISAAC
CONTINUES TO CHALLENGE.

Kudos to the BMX forecaster who had the utmost confidence to publish an effective 0% forecast "no impacts... felt across Alabama"  via Twitter in spite of the same office previously noting forecast difficulty with tropical systems. This conflicted, albeit slightly, with the NHC published probability distribution of TS winds covering a portion of AL. Further, it was somewhat inconsistent with the morning 9/1 Tallahassee AFD which covers southeast AL and stated, "The latest forecast for Hurricane Dorian from the National Hurricane Center continues to keep it east of the local area. While we still shouldn't let our guard completely down, the chance of impactful weather from Dorian occurring in our forecast area remains low".

BMX should be no stranger to forecast uncertainty. Take a look at the forecast cone for Hurricane Isaac (2012) that at one time was nearly centered over BMX. In fact, the entire state of Alabama was enveloped within the cone before none of the state was in the cone. It should be noted, even though the entire state of Alabama was outside the forecast cone toward landfall, the Mobile area did experience some TS force gusts and impact from surge. The cone only represents the storm center forecast track. This is why NHC storm wind probabilities are smeared well outside the cone with time and why forecasters should be cautious speaking in absolute terms, particularly when the average error for a tropical system is about 200 miles on day 5. 

 

Oh FFS, President Sharpie didn't just say that there was a chance of Alabama getting hit, he specifically said they were going to be hit "harder than expected", something no weather map or model was indicating at the time, in fact the trend was exactly the opposite. After a presidential statement like that, BMX was absolutely correct in setting the record straight. And you know it.

[the ghost of leroy]

5 minutes ago, ct_yankee said:

 

Oh FFS, President Sharpie didn't just say that there was a chance of Alabama getting hit, he specifically said they were going to be hit "harder than expected", something no weather map or model was indicating at the time, in fact the trend was exactly the opposite. After a presidential statement like that, BMX was absolutely correct in setting the record straight. And you know it.

No way. Let’s go back 7 years to pick one line of an AFD to make some bullshit argument that BMX was wrong to say Dorian wasn’t coming 

[aperson]

5 hours ago, f2tornado said:

This will not be a popular opinion here. The BMX tweet would have been the end of it however ABC Nightly News turned the tweet into a hit piece on the President in an effort to stick him with a gaff. The President then lashed out at the reporter and the pile on began. I have rarely seen this kind of media passion to turn a nontroversy into a controversy.

Consider the following published from BMX seven years ago

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 
626 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE NEVER BORING OR EASY TO FORECAST AS ISAAC
CONTINUES TO CHALLENGE.

Kudos to the BMX forecaster who had the utmost confidence to publish an effective 0% forecast "no impacts... felt across Alabama"  via Twitter in spite of the same office previously noting forecast difficulty with tropical systems. This conflicted, albeit slightly, with the NHC published probability distribution of TS winds covering a portion of AL. Further, it was somewhat inconsistent with the morning 9/1 Tallahassee AFD which covers southeast AL and stated, "The latest forecast for Hurricane Dorian from the National Hurricane Center continues to keep it east of the local area. While we still shouldn't let our guard completely down, the chance of impactful weather from Dorian occurring in our forecast area remains low".

BMX should be no stranger to forecast uncertainty. Take a look at the forecast cone for Hurricane Isaac (2012) that at one time was nearly centered over BMX. In fact, the entire state of Alabama was enveloped within the cone before none of the state was in the cone. It should be noted, even though the entire state of Alabama was outside the forecast cone toward landfall, the Mobile area did experience some TS force gusts and impact from surge. The cone only represents the storm center forecast track. This is why NHC storm wind probabilities are smeared well outside the cone with time and why forecasters should be cautious speaking in absolute terms, particularly when the average error for a tropical system is about 200 miles on day 5. 

Hey dude it's really cool that you have an eidetic knowledge of long-tail events in Alabama but in the middle of your myopia you missed like twenty of the president's tweets where he was goading the media and sowing distrust in the NWS.

[Hurricane Agnes]

 

[aperson]

5 hours ago, f2tornado said:

This will not be a popular opinion here.

Hey dude it's really cool that you have an eidetic knowledge of long-tail events in Alabama but in the middle of your myopia you missed like twenty of the president's tweets where he was goading the media and sowing distrust in the NWS.

Anyway, if you have a better way to convey impacts in a tweet in response to the president's overblown impact assessment to Alabama that accurately conveys long-tail distribution outcomes to the general populace, I'd love to hear them!

[the ghost of leroy]

 

3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

 

Oh man mappy is gonna tweet about this

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

 

If politics can be permitted to supplant science when it comes to weather forecasting, it is or should be an open question whether politics will be permitted to displace unfavorable economic data at some future point in time. This is a bad and damaging precedent, not just for the scientists/meteorologists who have been adversely impacted, but for the U.S. public who relies on them.

[WNash]

5 hours ago, f2tornado said:

This will not be a popular opinion here. The BMX tweet would have been the end of it however ABC Nightly News turned the tweet into a hit piece on the President in an effort to sti

How embarrassing for you to contort logic and language into an attempt to justify actions that are both authoritarian and unhinged. What hilarious is that you frame anticipated objections to your utter nonsense as an issue of “popularity,” as if you’re a brave truth teller instead of a coward who is willing to bend reality to the fantasies of a very powerful and very unstable man.

[rclab]

On 9/7/2019 at 6:54 PM, forkyfork said:

i still think josh is shark food

Forky is all right even when he is all wrong. As always

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, f2tornado said:

This will not be a popular opinion here. The BMX tweet would have been the end of it however ABC Nightly News turned the tweet into a hit piece on the President in an effort to stick him with a gaff. The President then lashed out at the reporter and the pile on began. I have rarely seen this kind of media passion to turn a nontroversy into a controversy.

Consider the following published from BMX seven years ago

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 
626 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE NEVER BORING OR EASY TO FORECAST AS ISAAC
CONTINUES TO CHALLENGE.

Kudos to the BMX forecaster who had the utmost confidence to publish an effective 0% forecast "no impacts... felt across Alabama"  via Twitter in spite of the same office previously noting forecast difficulty with tropical systems. This conflicted, albeit slightly, with the NHC published probability distribution of TS winds covering a portion of AL. Further, it was somewhat inconsistent with the morning 9/1 Tallahassee AFD which covers southeast AL and stated, "The latest forecast for Hurricane Dorian from the National Hurricane Center continues to keep it east of the local area. While we still shouldn't let our guard completely down, the chance of impactful weather from Dorian occurring in our forecast area remains low".

BMX should be no stranger to forecast uncertainty. Take a look at the forecast cone for Hurricane Isaac (2012) that at one time was nearly centered over BMX. In fact, the entire state of Alabama was enveloped within the cone before none of the state was in the cone. It should be noted, even though the entire state of Alabama was outside the forecast cone toward landfall, the Mobile area did experience some TS force gusts and impact from surge. The cone only represents the storm center forecast track. This is why NHC storm wind probabilities are smeared well outside the cone with time and why forecasters should be cautious speaking in absolute terms, particularly when the average error for a tropical system is about 200 miles on day 5. 

There are two big issues with the above commentary:

1. A 5%-10% probability of tropical storm-force winds in the far southeast portion of Alabama is far from a "most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated" scenario.

2. Had the President simply acknowledged that he misspoke (an issue that was corrected by BMX in a timely and sufficiently forceful fashion to regain control over sentiment as the Office was being bombarded by calls from worried Alabama residents) or refrained from commenting on the issue, the matter would never have spiraled to its present state. However, he took a different approach and, IMO, the worst possible one.

[TriPol]

55 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

 

This story just got 10x worse.